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[Sergarr]

There will be one ethnic group in each of these states, so how will a civil war erupt in any of them? and obviously keeping the ethnic groups together hasn't helped Syria so far. let me remind you that this civil war is hardly the first time Sunni and Alawites fought for control.

Yugoslavia's break up did not prevent war from erupting there. If anything, keeping ethnic groups separate only helps ramp up the hostility.

[Helgoland]

Wasn't it more that the wars led to the breakup?

[Loud Whispers]

Wasn't it more that the wars led to the breakup?

The Balkan wars began after the breakup of Yugoslavia

[Sheb]

Yeah, because Serbia didn't want to let some parts go. And general shit.

[penguinofhonor]

How the will the Sunni states destabilize states without sunnis in them? They can't.

You know most Kurds are Sunni, right? Even if you had unlimited resources and could magically get everyone to agree with the plan, I don't think it would be possible to divide the people of this area into four homogenous groups.

[Loud Whispers]

Yeah, because Serbia didn't want to let some parts go. And general shit.

The origins of "Kosovo is Serbia clay"

[Strife26]

How the will the Sunni states destabilize states without sunnis in them? They can't.

You know most Kurds are Sunni, right? Even if you had unlimited resources and could magically get everyone to agree with the plan, I don't think it would be possible to divide the people of this area into four homogenous groups.

I'd say that there's a very big gulf when you're comparing Sunni Kurds to Sunnieveryoneelse Kurdistan would be a cohesive enough nation state if it could gain a unified independence. But y'know, Turkey.

[miljan]

Yeah, because Serbia didn't want to let some parts go. And general shit.

It more like parts of new countries didn't want to be part of it, but be part of serbia if you want to be more correct, and serbia fucking it up generally.

Anyway, the thing that needs to happen in syria is first, there needs to be a compromise, a stop of hostility between normal rebels that USA is supporting (if there are any left that are normal) and the legit government, with agreement that there will be reforms and removal of asad from power (if people want it normally). Stop fuling the conflict from countires like iran, saudi arabia, turkey and similar, stop buying cheap oil directly or indirectly from isis and other problematic rebels.

Also there needs to be fixed problems from where all the ISIS are coming (EU, USA and russia should fix this as they are the main fault of the problems from afghanistan, iraq to disaster with agression on libya).

There is no way that russian air strike can turn the war around, even that they are in corporation of main ground forces of syria.

Also interesting thing this is the first time after WW2 that both US and russia are fighting against same enemy.

Another strange thing is that USA and west alies during 1 year of bombing had around 6000  bomb flights. That is literally nothing. On daily basis there should be minimum 500 bomb flight and more as it happen in other wars with heavy air support. I don't know how many air forces the west has to use in the conflict, so maybe this low numbers of air planes and supplies explains it.

[Sheb]

That's because Air Power alone isn't really useful, and attempts by the West at creating a rebel force on the ground failed. Sure we could bomb ISIS more, but what would it achieve? We have no one on the ground to take the territory back, and we're not ready to simply carpet-bomb Raqqa.

[miljan]

That's because Air Power alone isn't really useful, and attempts by the West at creating a rebel force on the ground failed. Sure we could bomb ISIS more, but what would it achieve? We have no one on the ground to take the territory back, and we're not ready to simply carpet-bomb Raqqa.

No, i  dont think that is the case, because there didnt even try to use air superiority to bomb thing like in other countries like yugoslavia(that had over 1000 bomb runs a day) or in libya. And syria is a lot more deserts so it should be a lot easier to have a bigger impact on. So I am not talking about carpet-bombing of cities.

But yes, there needs to be ground support, thats why best would be to cooperate with  legit govemrent, rebels if they are of any use and can be trusted, and with west allies  and east allies  (russia, syria, iran, iraq, china) to try and actually force all their power on same enemies all the time. And that means constraining problematic behavior of some allied countries that are are fueling the war.

[Loud Whispers]

Anyway, the thing that needs to happen in syria is first, there needs to be a compromise, a stop of hostility between normal rebels that USA is supporting (if there are any left that are normal) and the legit government, with agreement that there will be reforms and removal of asad from power (if people want it normally).

Yep. One thing I am still trying to ponder over is in the unlikely event of Assad stepping down, what is to be done with him after the fighting ends.

Stop fuling the conflict from countires like iran, saudi arabia, turkey and similar

Easier said than done. Not much you can do without the agreement of all such countries, and none of them agree with each other.

stop buying cheap oil directly or indirectly from isis and other problematic rebels.

They use Turkish and Kurdish middlemen to evade restrictions. Most of their money comes not from oil, but from drugs. Get rid of poppy fields in Afghanistan and you'd leave ISIS only with the money they get from oil, foreign donations, human trafficking, ransom, extortion, looting and black market antiques.

There is no way that russian air strike can turn the war around, even that they are in corporation of main ground forces of syria.

They certainly don't hurt though. I'm reminded of that one documentary, quite a good one, all about the foreign volunteers fighting against ISIS. They assaulted one of their Fortresses but eventually ground to a halt that only got unstuck after they got American air support, and took over the Fortress.

Another strange thing is that USA and west alies during 1 year of bombing had around 6000  bomb flights. That is literally nothing. On daily basis there should be minimum 500 bomb flight and more as it happen in other wars with heavy air support.
I don't know how many air forces the west has to use in the conflict, so maybe this low numbers of air planes and supplies explains it.

What matters most is intelligence, not quantity. 500 bomb flights a day mean nothing if they're not hitting the right targets.

Spoiler (click to show/hide)

Spoiler (click to show/hide)

The more friendly eyes on the ground there are, the more air strikes can take place
Also in the West there's a large amount of people who ceaselessly bitch every time a Western nation carries out an airstrike, that certainly doesn't help since it means near the beginning of every election cycle everyone gets more trepid around military action

[miljan]

Anyway, the thing that needs to happen in syria is first, there needs to be a compromise, a stop of hostility between normal rebels that USA is supporting (if there are any left that are normal) and the legit government, with agreement that there will be reforms and removal of asad from power (if people want it normally).

Yep. One thing I am still trying to ponder over is in the unlikely event of Assad stepping down, what is to be done with him after the fighting ends.

Stop fuling the conflict from countires like iran, saudi arabia, turkey and similar

Easier said than done. Not much you can do without the agreement of all such countries, and none of them agree with each other.

stop buying cheap oil directly or indirectly from isis and other problematic rebels.

They use Turkish and Kurdish middlemen to evade restrictions. Most of their money comes not from oil, but from drugs. Get rid of poppy fields in Afghanistan and you'd leave ISIS only with the money they get from oil, foreign donations, human trafficking, ransom, extortion, looting and black market antiques.

There is no way that russian air strike can turn the war around, even that they are in corporation of main ground forces of syria.

They certainly don't hurt though. I'm reminded of that one documentary, quite a good one, all about the foreign volunteers fighting against ISIS. They assaulted one of their Fortresses but eventually ground to a halt that only got unstuck after they got American air support, and took over the Fortress.

Another strange thing is that USA and west alies during 1 year of bombing had around 6000  bomb flights. That is literally nothing. On daily basis there should be minimum 500 bomb flight and more as it happen in other wars with heavy air support.
I don't know how many air forces the west has to use in the conflict, so maybe this low numbers of air planes and supplies explains it.

What matters most is intelligence, not quantity. 500 bomb flights a day mean nothing if they're not hitting the right targets.

Spoiler (click to show/hide)

Spoiler (click to show/hide)

The more friendly eyes on the ground there are, the more air strikes can take place
Also in the West there's a large amount of people who ceaselessly bitch every time a Western nation carries out an airstrike, that certainly doesn't help since it means near the beginning of every election cycle everyone gets more trepid around military action

Yea, agree more or less with you.  Nothing that much to add. I am wondering will china also do something more directly, as there are several hints here and there that they will also be joining this cluster fuck.

[Sheb]

Why? china doesnt have a horse in this race.

[Sergarr]

Why? china doesnt have a horse in this race.

They actually might do; I think I've seen a news-piece which said something about Chinese Uigurs setting up shop in Syria amid the rebels.

[Sheb]

So you mean other people are killing their Uighurs for them?