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Author Topic: The Let's go back to Iraq, now without WMDs Thread. About the IS(IS) threat.  (Read 207215 times)

Loud Whispers

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Israel's been under more trouble than usual with attacks on their citizens flaring up now but this is just badass and I've got to dailymail post it, some orthodox Jew got attacked by a Palistinian with a knife - after getting stabbed loads and loads of times he pulled the knife out of his own neck and killed his attacker with it

Absolutely based

Helgoland

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Oh, but you see, that Palestinian guy was only defending his country. How dare that Israeli continue decades of oppression by defending himself!

E: Wait, that's a Daily Mail article. Do you have a proper source?
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Arguably he's already a progressive, just one in the style of an enlightened Kaiser.
I'm going to do the smart thing here and disengage. This isn't a hill I paticularly care to die on.

Loud Whispers

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Helgoland

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In that case, I stand by my crudely fashioned strawman.

"hospitalized in moderate condition" Damn, that's badass.
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Arguably he's already a progressive, just one in the style of an enlightened Kaiser.
I'm going to do the smart thing here and disengage. This isn't a hill I paticularly care to die on.

Loud Whispers

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I really want to know why....
Is it to free forces for a possible offensive in Ukraine?
They did exercises near Ukraine a month ago
Maybe, or they fear overextending in Eastern Europe and the ME at the same time

Is it because it became too expensive for shrinking Russian budget?
Possibly as well

Is it because Turkey\Saudi Arabia and friends threatened war Russia can't win without nukes?
Not likely as neither Turkey nor Saudi Arabia have all that good force projection capabilities

It it because Syrian Mig-21 was shot down by some kind of SAM and Putin don't wants to see same with his own aircrafts?
Rebels claim they got it with AA guns when it was landing, UN says it was two heat-seeking missiles.
Maybe

Also possible is that Putin is content with having given the Syrians and Iranians the momentum needed to push ahead and just doesn't want Russian ground troops to end up participating in the low-level continuous insurgency phase

In hindsight I don't know how I didn't see this sooner, there is an obvious, obvious extra reason for Putin's withdrawal. Negotiations underway have been under risk of sides refusing to compromise especially in lieu of terrorist attacks and everyone's argued that no matter what Assad will step down in the aftermath, however words and actions are two different things. Russia's intervention has meant that the government forces have gone from the brink of being genocided to victory, but their victory is not absolute. It is clear now they will not be defeated unless the West bombs them and ISIS is for now, paralyzed. Yet the fighting has not ended and the war is not yet won, so Putin's withdrawal will mean that Putin will gain leverage to force concessions out of Assad in the negotiating table and ensure he steps down - an Assad who has no more need of Russian help to clear out remnant rebel forces is one who might risks refusing to step down. Add to that in that Russia has already accomplished its own personal objectives in securing defence contracts by demonstrating its weapons, giving its soldiers some work experience and has thwarted any Arab-Turk or American-Coalition troops from destroying the Syrian gov. With advisers, as much as two battalions and anti-air missiles remaining in place, Assad's position is saved, but not safe - purposefully so. The benefits of having objectives in war is that you don't end up mired in conflicts like Afghanistan where no one really knows why so many died over it in the end

Sergarr

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Yeah, I'm pretty sure Assad got on Kremlin's shitlist when he
1) started an offensive immediately after Russia has announced its intervention, completely flubbing it in the process and wasting tons of effort in vain because he believed that Russians were magic,
2) completely ignored Russian attempts at finding good opposition in order to form a unified anti-jihadist front (which were ultimately somewhat successful, what with YPG and SDF getting Russian arms and bombing support, no thanks to Assad) and stabilize the country, and
3) after his army land forward observers (who I'd imagine got quite a few of "advisors" btw) got better coordination with Russia cluster bomb slinging squads, finally started pushing back and, after a certain chain of events, an anti-jihadist ceasefire was finally imposed in Syria, he started to boast about "how he will totally re-conquer Syria" in the interviews.

I remember Kremlin's reaction to that last one was rather sharp.
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Loud Whispers

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Kremlin will remove assad REMOVE ASSAD

sprinkled chariot

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Rather slap his ass to make him good boy.
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Antioch

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Heavy fighting broke out in northern Syria the last couple of days.

It seems the syrian ceasefire has completely broken down now. The syrian goverment launched a large attack to encircle Aleppo and it seems they are making gains.

At the same moment there are heavy clashes going on between IS and Syrian rebels. The rebels drove into IS territory over the course of last week, but now it seems IS is counter attacking hard and has split the rebel held territory on the border in half.

The Syrian Kurds have been preparing for a major offensive in the same area for some time now. I wonder if this fighting spurs them to begin their offensive, since it seems a large portion of the IS fighters defending nearby Manbij have been transferred to fight the rebels on the Turkish border.

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Antioch

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Rebels reopen their corridor on the Turkish border.

Syrian regime force are pushed back from the gains they made in Aleppo.
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Helgoland

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Sources? I'd love to read more about it, but German media apparently got bored of the conflict and stopped reporting.
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Arguably he's already a progressive, just one in the style of an enlightened Kaiser.
I'm going to do the smart thing here and disengage. This isn't a hill I paticularly care to die on.

Antioch

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Sources? I'd love to read more about it, but German media apparently got bored of the conflict and stopped reporting.

The livemap has most of the news gathered in a nice map: http://syria.liveuamap.com/
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Loud Whispers

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Strife26

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http://www.huffingtonpost.com/david-oualaalou/fighting-between-the-pent_b_9609308.html

Lol

CIA proxies and Pentagon proxies are killing each other

Quote
It’s hard enough for Americans to understand how sects of the same basic faith can be bitter enemies.
Other than all the tension between Protestants and Catholics throughout history? I mean, I don't think the general American populace is less well informed about that when comps to any other topic.


I'd also seriously the article's assertion that a Kurdish forward strategy wouldn't be effective. A big ol' Kurdistan sitting right there would definitely be enough to tear up ISIS's opportunities. Heck, a sufficiently American aligned Kurdistan would likely force everyone in the region to shift from fairweather friends to something more reliable. But, y'know, NATO has its resident dictator in Edrogen, so we can't do that.
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smjjames

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http://www.huffingtonpost.com/david-oualaalou/fighting-between-the-pent_b_9609308.html

Lol

CIA proxies and Pentagon proxies are killing each other

Quote
It’s hard enough for Americans to understand how sects of the same basic faith can be bitter enemies.
Other than all the tension between Protestants and Catholics throughout history? I mean, I don't think the general American populace is less well informed about that when comps to any other topic.


I'd also seriously the article's assertion that a Kurdish forward strategy wouldn't be effective. A big ol' Kurdistan sitting right there would definitely be enough to tear up ISIS's opportunities. Heck, a sufficiently American aligned Kurdistan would likely force everyone in the region to shift from fairweather friends to something more reliable. But, y'know, NATO has its resident dictator in Edrogen, so we can't do that.

There is some tension, yeah, but we don't kill each other over it like we used to, which is probably why it's hard for us to understand.
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