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Author Topic: The Let's go back to Iraq, now without WMDs Thread. About the IS(IS) threat.  (Read 207218 times)

martinuzz

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Putin unexpectedly announced today, during a staff meeting with his ministers of Defense, and Foreign affairs, that Russia will immediatly start withdrawing the majority of it's forces from Syria, starting tomorrow.
Putin says the military can come home, because "they have accomplished their mission of creating the conditions nescessary to start peace negotiations".
Russian airforce and naval bases which were already present in Syria will remain operational.

It is not clear how long exactly the withdrawal is supposed to take, nor whether this means that Russia will withdraw all of it's 60 airplanes stationed in Latakia, or keep some stationed there still.

If Russia withdraws all it's planes, it will no longer be able to assist Assad's regime, if peace negotiations fail.
According to a Kremlin spokesman, Putin has telephoned Assad to inform him of this remarkable decision.
Putin said that Russia now has to focus intensively on the peace negotiations process.

http://www.volkskrant.nl/buitenland/poetin-kondigt-terugtrekking-aan-van-russische-militairen-uit-syrie~a4263079/
« Last Edit: March 14, 2016, 01:32:49 pm by martinuzz »
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http://www.bay12forums.com/smf/index.php?topic=73719.msg1830479#msg1830479

Loud Whispers

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http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/syria-civil-war-russia-military-withdrawal-vladimir-putin-a6930846.html
Same story in English

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/syrian-civil-war-five-years-on-2011-bashar-al-assad-isis-iran-conflict-a6929186.html
Also lol

Quote
Five years ago, we were high on Arab revolutions, and journalists were growing used to 'liberating' Arab capitals
I suppose the opposite of cultural enrichment is democratic liberation

Ukrainian Ranger

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I really want to know why....

Is it to free forces for a possible offensive in Ukraine?
Is it because it became too expensive for shrinking Russian budget?
Is it because Turkey\Saudi Arabia and friends threatened war Russia can't win without nukes?
It it because Syrian Mig-21 was shot down by some kind of SAM and Putin don't wants to see same with his own aircrafts?
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War must be, while we defend our lives against a destroyer who would devour all; but I do not love the bright sword for its sharpness, nor the arrow for its swiftness, nor the warrior for his glory. I love only that which they defend.

Erkki

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They ran out of USSR era iron bombs.
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Ukrainian Ranger

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They need few hundreds wars of that scale to run out of that stockpiles

Bad maintenance and resulting sour condition of the airforce in Syria is another possible reason to pull out.

Or west promised Putin something good enough
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War must be, while we defend our lives against a destroyer who would devour all; but I do not love the bright sword for its sharpness, nor the arrow for its swiftness, nor the warrior for his glory. I love only that which they defend.

boki

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Ehh really bad news. The ISIS while losing is still not beaten. And other terrorist groups are still active there. Lets hope they will keep a part of their air fleet to still conduct operations if needed.
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Erkki

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Also, there may be a major differences between what Putin says Russia will do, what RT says Russia does and what Russia will actually do.
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Loud Whispers

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I really want to know why....
Is it to free forces for a possible offensive in Ukraine?
They did exercises near Ukraine a month ago
Maybe, or they fear overextending in Eastern Europe and the ME at the same time

Is it because it became too expensive for shrinking Russian budget?
Possibly as well

Is it because Turkey\Saudi Arabia and friends threatened war Russia can't win without nukes?
Not likely as neither Turkey nor Saudi Arabia have all that good force projection capabilities

It it because Syrian Mig-21 was shot down by some kind of SAM and Putin don't wants to see same with his own aircrafts?
Rebels claim they got it with AA guns when it was landing, UN says it was two heat-seeking missiles.
Maybe

Also possible is that Putin is content with having given the Syrians and Iranians the momentum needed to push ahead and just doesn't want Russian ground troops to end up participating in the low-level continuous insurgency phase

Ukrainian Ranger

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Also, It may be hybrid warfare bluff and Russians will stay there but "It's Syrians"
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War must be, while we defend our lives against a destroyer who would devour all; but I do not love the bright sword for its sharpness, nor the arrow for its swiftness, nor the warrior for his glory. I love only that which they defend.

sprinkled chariot

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> implying that Putin ever was not fair
> implying, that russian soldiers in Donetsk are not peaceful civilians
> implying, that Russia is not most peaceful country in the world


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Loud Whispers

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Also, It may be hybrid warfare bluff and Russians will stay there but "It's Syrians"
Or Russian advisors

> implying that Putin ever was not fair
> implying, that russian soldiers in Donetsk are not peaceful civilians
> implying, that Russia is not most peaceful country in the world
Putin aliv an make would peace in moskva

Ukrainian Ranger

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War must be, while we defend our lives against a destroyer who would devour all; but I do not love the bright sword for its sharpness, nor the arrow for its swiftness, nor the warrior for his glory. I love only that which they defend.

Strife26

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They are quite undress right dress.
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miljan

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Russia will be continuing the bombing runs in syria, but big part of their air fleet will retreat. If needed they can easy return the fighters and bombers, especially as the main cost of this expedition was the rebuilding of the infrastructure of their two main bases. They have around 60 airplanes (and most of them are not even bombers), so its not that big number in the first place.

The big surprise is the the ceasefire is more or less effective and had a good effect on separating more radical rebels that work in hand with al nusra and isis from more moderate ones.

But overall nothing will drastically change, as the air strikes are already on lower side after the ceasefire and they will continue on same level. This is more a PR propaganda move.
« Last Edit: March 15, 2016, 09:09:44 am by miljan »
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Loud Whispers

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