Well, looks like I lose the game. Or at least I can't win. Being able to colonize 80% of Ireland by turn 50 would be difficult even without someone burning my villages. With it and me having to pump resources into an army I don't have a real chance at claiming 80% of Ireland even if I do easily kick evil majarada off the island. That doesn't mean I am going to roll over and die of course, but I feel it necessary to note that I can no longer win.
I've done the maths, there's a 130 Ireland tiles and you've got 46 of them and you need 104. You're averaging +3 pop a turn, even if you had just +2 pop a turn you'd still get there within the time limit with a bit of wiggle room for razing. Remember if you conquer Northumbrian cities, you can appropriate their population (and obviously the tiles they take up). I'm not saying it'll be easy, but it's definitely still possible. Remember you also win if all the other factions are defeated, if you think that'd be an easier wincon. That all said, I'd be willing to switch the Irish wincon to be the same as the non-Irish take-over-Ireland wincon. This is all quite experimental and I don't expect everything to be wholly balanced right out of the gate.
Heh. Taking over the world within 50 turns is impossible for Ireland. Now, if I had 100 turns with which to do it, it would be possible (if insanely hard).
I'm willing to tough it out with my current wincon. I might not be able to win, but its worth a try.
Your calculations are wrong though, I don't get 3 pop per turn. I have 51 pop at turn 21, which is just about 2.5 pop. That's only claiming river tiles and making two cities. With almost all of the river tiles claimed, I only have less productive riverless plains and hills to claim. I am also going to need a bunch of small cities to build farms everywhere (which will probably cost like 10 more pop). Now, you are right, I still have a chance at achieving my goal, but it's going to be tough.
My only real balance complaint for this game is those swordsmen. They are strong enough that they overshadow pretty much all units that could be produced by a player in the time it takes them to attack. They weren't gamebreaking though, since most of the people had them, but they still had a huge impact on the game for those who didn't start with one. Maybe having them only be defensive (eg. can't leave your territory) units would have been better.
<playerturn player="Lemon10">
<tileorders>
<tileorder type="bRoad" x="7" y="25"/>
<tileorder type="tClaim" x="12" y="23"/>
<tileorder type="tClaim" x="12" y="15"/>
<tileorder type="tClaim" x="12" y="21"/>
</tileorders>
<cityorders>
<cityorder type="rUnit" cityid="14">
<unittype code="pike"/>
</cityorder>
</cityorders>
<armyorgorders/>
<armyorders>
<armyorder type="mArmy" armyid="2" x="9" y="25">
<step dx="-1" dy="1"/>
</armyorder>
</armyorders>
</playerturn>
<playerturn player="Lemon10">
<tileorders>
<tileorder type="tClaim" x="13" y="24"/>
<tileorder type="bImp" x="7" y="24">
<improvement code="farm"/>
</tileorder>
<tileorder type="bImp" x="6" y="27">
<improvement code="quarr"/>
</tileorder>
<tileorder type="bRoad" x="9" y="26"/>
</tileorders>
<cityorders/>
<armyorgorders>
<armyorgorder type="mUnit" armyid="46" x="6" y="26">
<targetunit unitid="46"/>
<secondarmy armyid="42"/>
</armyorgorder>
<armyorgorder type="rnArmy" armyid="42" x="6" y="26">
<newname>Irish Regulars</newname>
</armyorgorder>
</armyorgorders>
<armyorders>
<armyorder type="mArmy" armyid="42" x="6" y="26">
<step dx="1" dy="-1"/>
<step dx="1" dy="1"/>
</armyorder>
</armyorders>
</playerturn>