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[Araph]

This tickles my morbid fascination with statistics. I don't fully understand all of those numbers, but I'm inexorably drawn to them.

So, what do you all want me to do with this predictive program? Continue to post predictions like this every day? Let it run in the background, gathering more data? I don't mind continuing, and I don't mind stopping.

Collect data and do predictions for longer periods at a time.

Try developing better models.

Stuff like that. :v

I second this motion.

[My Name is Immaterial]

Updated to June.

This tickles my morbid fascination with statistics. I don't fully understand all of those numbers, but I'm inexorably drawn to them.

I can explain them to you. That's half of why I'm here.

[My Name is Immaterial]

I'll update when I get back home.

[My Name is Immaterial]

Updated the July.

[Generally me]

Oh great Jifodus the lurker, Reveal thy self.

[Graknorke]

Woo, fancy statistics. Definitely gonna be keeping track of what you do with them.

[My Name is Immaterial]

Updated.

[Zanzetkuken The Great]

You know, I really don't like the look of that decline.

[My Name is Immaterial]

Which one? They're all in decline. It's normal for it to have a downturn after a major release.

[Zanzetkuken The Great]

Which one? They're all in decline. It's normal for it to have a downturn after a major release.

The generalized decline of the line of best fit across nearly all charts.

[PTTG??]

Good to know I'm still up there despite a substantial drop-off in activity.

[My Name is Immaterial]

It's already been brought up. Here's what's been said.

Observation: Daily data from New Members (Monthly too, but to a lesser, vaguer, extent) show a serious decline, now worth making "HMMMM" noises over.
Our lowest ever New Members in one day was October 23rd, 2008, with just one. There have been 2094 days between our last occurrence of only 4 new members in a day, June 28th, 2009 and March 23rd, 2015. The rest of the recent new member counts are back down to 2008/2009 levels. I realize this is mostly due to the lack of major releases, but it's still interesting.

You're right, new members is plummeting with the force of a thousand suns. Any ideas what's going on there?

I'm... not entirely sure.  Maybe DF has reached it's publicity limit?  Maybe we're less inclusive than we used to be?  idk

My guess is that since Toady implemented the requirement for accounts to be approved we're finally cutting out all of the many spam accounts that are joining the forum.

That'd be my guess as well. Remember, the dive started back around late 2013-early 2014ish regarding this:

Starting in roughly 2014 we changed how members were registered because of the love bots -- about 2/3rds (very approximately) of the signups before then starting especially around 2011 were spammers.  Now they only get in every once in a while.  I'm still cleaning that up (I've deleted at least ten thousand accounts over the last couple years, and there's a lot left to go).  So total member counts are basically useless, though members online isn't really affected by spammers (except maybe that weird day).  As far as I can tell, the actual-people membership slowly increases, as does the people online, with the release spikes.  Everything else seems to track with that as well, though I haven't done much with it.

combined with the relative length of time since a major update.

Basically I'd say that we're probably just approaching the point of being able to observe the effective member join rate. There probably won't be trustworthy data on that particular point until the new restrictions have been in place for enough time to generate sufficient points (so ~6-8 months probably), and when it's been that long I'd be willing to be that what it will look like will be fairly stable at lowish levels. Sort of what it looked like before the 2012 spike and at the moment, except with a bit fewer members; the curve on that graph is somewhat misleading, given that the spike is much sharper and either temporal end much flatter than it indicates.

[My Name is Immaterial]

Things have been updated.

[TheBiggerFish]

PTW.
And did you put up the October stats?

[Edmus]

PTW, also. Those are some sexy graphs.