flabort:
The Soldier
What does your gut say about Tack, Tiruin, and MOWE, the three players not under the microscope who aren't you?
Tack: My gut says scum but it's probably biased; his lack of usefulness has a RL excuse. A scum flip from Andrew in particular would be incredibly enlightening.
Tiruin: As of right now, null. I had been thinking she was town, but after a quick skim it looks like while she has been hunting, she's been off on the sidelines instead of right in the middle, you could say. This might be attributable to being busy, might be scum skating by as I don't recall her ever making a full-time case on anyone.
MOWE: Now that she isn't busy (I'm seeing a theme to this game), she seems like she's earnestly hunting. You can't go off of just one day, however. Largely null.
Basically, RL sucks and it makes people hard to read because they aren't there.
Tack:
Sorry- Too late at night.
EBWOP:
What does it matter? If Andrew dies and flips town, my town status will be confirmed anyway.
But at the end of the day, both the Cop and Mafia will know who is town- so I can't be sure about it.
I just find it much too convenient that flabort decided to cop Andrew night 2- And it seems some other people have been beating around the bush with the same suspicions.
As it is, the fake cop decided that it was easiest to pick a dead person as one of their inspects, for whatever reason.
So all we have to go on is the second choices.
1. Andrew picked me in an incredibly subtle move in order to incriminate me through sacrificing himself in order to help hide the last surviving mafia member.
2. Flabort picked Andrew in a brute-force maneuver in order to push towards a mislynch in MYLO.
(3. Andrew picked me (If I was hypothetically mafia) because he thought he'd survive and therefore would be taking the heat off both of us, and somehow didn't forsee that the actual cop would come out of the woodwork)
So yes, I give Andrew some allowance because he claimed me as town. However not due to buddying.
I feel as though incredibly subtle and incredibly dumb are both out of character for Andrew, hence it's easier to believe he's a bad townie.
Thus, I vote Flabort.
The problem with these possibilities is that there's no guarantee that there's a cop in the game. There's a 33% chance that there isn't one. If there was no cop, Andrew's fakeclaim (assuming it is one) would have most likely gone much better for him. Under that circumstance, or just the scum rolecop not finding a cop and banking on luck, option 3 looks more likely than you suggest.
The three likely possibilities for today are: lynch Andrew, lynch flabort, or no lynch.
1: Andrew
++ If Scum: We took out one scum. Flabort dies in the night (since he's confirmed cop*) unless a hypothetical Jailkeep guesses the final scum correctly or keeps flabort inside.
-- If Town: We lose unless the hypothetical jailkeep chooses right. If they do, we have a confirmed scum in the morning and we move on to, most likely, 3-player LYLO.
2: flabort
Same as Andrew's scenarios, but with names switched.
3: No lynch
== The real cop dies... unless the scum WIFOM us and leave both claimants alive for 5P LYLO. If hypo-Jailkeep guesses right, we're right back where we started.
*BOTH scum fakeclaiming cop would be absolutely legendary, but I don't think that's what's happening here.
No Lynch is the only option where we can't lose today, BUT it is guaranteed to leave us in a fairly mediocre position. Lynching either of the cop claimaints is riskier, but if successful in some way we are in a much better position. Therefore, I agree that someone should be lynched today.
As for which it should be, lets look at the reasons for both of them:
flabort: Persus did absolutely nothing, what Andrew has done actually fits his meta, just so happens to be the real cop and he inspected the fake cop.
Andrew: Has done scummy things that I've repeated enough, see any of my previous posts D3 or D2. One additional thing: from D1, I got the impression that Andrew is the kind of player that plays things safe rather than taking large risks (see
here), something backed up by him trying to inspect people unlikely to be killed. Tying the vote and incriminating himself is certainly a risky move, so he clearly values his life more than a standard townie would. Whether he considers a cop with a town result important enough for the risk to be worth it is the question. Further,
here he says that "inactivity or a reluctance to post a lot" is a scumtell; however, N2 he targeted TDS, someone who had managed to become active by end of day, rather than MOWE who, by his logic, was exhibiting a large scumtell, and I don't see a big reason for scum to have killed her.
I'm starting to see the arguments against flabort, but the case on Andrew is more compelling. The discrepancies in his logic in regard to his choice in target are pretty glaring, and it's interesting that he never pressured or went after inactive players after saying that inactivity is the most important scumtell to look out for. Keeping it on
Andrew.
Author
Topic: Not-So-Beginner Mafia 4: Game over! Scum victory! (Read 36263 times)