I wonder how many of those that died in that fire were hostages rather than separatists.
I've upgraded (downgraded?) my estimate for Ukraine to "pretty much fucked", at the current rate things are going. The stated conditions for further Russian intervention have basically been met, political authority and stability outside of Kiev is fragmenting, people are starting to go vigilante, atrocities are starting to be committed (or at least stories are being told about them, ratcheting up tension levels on everyone) and Ukraine's only option is to act with more, not less, force to try to stop it all. Which, if they actually succeed in achieving something like that.....there's Russia, ready to invade when Ukrainian forces are at their most vulnerable. There was never really a chance of sustained Ukrainian military resistance to the full weight of the Russian military in Ukraine. But after fighting to retake several cities they're going to be in even less of a position to mount a coordinated response to another Russian incursion.
I feel Ukraine is ultimately going to go the way of Syria with regards to Western action if the situation continues to escalate. Time was played for in Syria, no one was willing to commit to anything because of how volatile the consequences would be and the convenient shield of which alliances countries are or aren't part of, sanctions were levied until there was nothing else to do or say, and the misery has just continued unabated as central authority broke down further and different factions started operating independently in the region. The biggest difference is that a world power may step in to claim Ukraine and put a definitive end to it, one way or another. But if that happens I imagine the Ukraine will be a bitter pill for Russia for many, many years to come. If Ukraine holds on to their territory and their government establishes itself, they will have to deal with Pro-Russian separatists and insurgents, probably supported if not staffed by Russian operators, for several years at least. Unless it militarizes the shit out of itself and pours much of its (possibly now denied) IMF funds into armament. If Russia takes Ukraine as a whole, either through invasion or because the new government dissolves in the face of a civil war and they step in as a "stabilizing force", they will have to deal with Ukrainian Nationalists and Ultranationalists, fighting a guerrilla war against their occupiers for who knows how long.
It certainly worked for the Russians when they were butchering Chechens at the end of WW2, except in their case setting the barn on fire that burned 700 people to death in Khaibakh was deliberate whereas the Odessa killings seem to have been unplanned and largely accidental.
There is nothing accidental about throwing molotovs cocktails at a building. The cause and effect of that are pretty clear. Maybe the intent was to take control of the building back by simply removing the building from the equation. But the results were not a matter of "oops!." Anymore than throwing a pipe bomb into a room with the intent of getting people to vacate it. That's like saying "I'm going to shoot my bullets in your general direction, and if you're standing there, well, that's sort of your fault."
Poll
0 (0%)
Author
Topic: Re: !!Post - USSR Politics Thread!!: On Lockdown Due to Excessive Politicking (Read 160826 times)