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Until I figure out how to un-close it, at least.

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So yeah.

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Total Members Voted: 0

Voting closed: May 01, 2014, 02:06:40 pm

[Knit tie]

I agree, thats why I don't think it's work of Russian spec ops. It's just silly. Compare to how work was done in Crimea, no similarities. Notice also that many separatists doesnt wear masks.

Or it's a deliberate provocation because they want the Ukrainians to give them an excuse for war.  Like I said a month ago, the Ukrainians win if this doesn't become a military conflict.  Putin wins if this becomes a military conflict without NATO intervention.  Both lose if it becomes a war with NATO intervention.

Sorry, very little logic in your post.
The thing is if russia wants war, they could already start it few months before if it is in their interest as you are assuming. But it's pretty clear it's not their interest. Putin doesnt need any more provocation to act, that should be clear by now.

I think Putin really does need a good excuse for a war, seeing how he pursues ideological goals as well as political ones this time. If the Russian public stops believing that he is protecting Ukrainian Russians from depredation by the new government and starts thinking that he is an imperialistic aggressor, he will lose all the public support his trick has gathered him this far.

[Guardian G.I.]

If this forum is mostly liberal, why it's so unipolar? I realize there many non-liberals, but why majority is so hostile and unipolar? Making statements like all media in Russia is propaganda? It's false statement. And it's just one example. Why UR can go gung ho and thats absolutely normal thing? Why isnulting Russia is okay and opposite action is a straight ban?

Eh, there are much more hostile American forums out there. At least people around here don't actually accuse pro-Russian people here of being paid Russian agents and don't seriously suggest that any person with pro-Russian views should be banned for potentially being a Russian agent, like some folks on Reddit.

[miljan]

Sorry, very little logic in your post.
The thing is if russia wants war, they could already start it few months before if it is in their interest as you are assuming. But it's pretty clear it's not their interest. Putin doesnt need any more provocation to act, that should be clear by now.

Russia doesn't want war on any terms, Russia wins a war only if NATO stays out.  Putin might have the Russian population convinced but he certainly can't invade tomorrow without expecting NATO retaliation.

The notion that a balance of power exists shouldn't be one that even needs to be explained.  Russia and Ukraine aren't the only actors in this scenario.

It has nothing to do with NATO, as it can not intervene if ukraine is attacked. And yes NATO will not retaliate if russia would openly invade it, they would supply ukraine with weapons and similar, but nothing more.

Here is not problem NATO, but simply a full open conflict with ukraine.

[gogis]

I agree, thats why I don't think it's work of Russian spec ops. It's just silly. Compare to how work was done in Crimea, no similarities. Notice also that many separatists doesnt wear masks.

Or it's a deliberate provocation because they want the Ukrainians to give them an excuse for war.  Like I said a month ago, the Ukrainians win if this doesn't become a military conflict.  Putin wins if this becomes a military conflict without NATO intervention.  Both lose if it becomes a war with NATO intervention.

1. If Russia really wanted war they will did that already. It's not hard to squash Ukraine army. And it's absurdly bad thing to do for both internal and outer PR.
2. NATO real conventional power is exaggerated. They not just very slow to gather any formidable force in place (google it), they also overrated in terms of continental warfare power (substract navy and aviation).
If you think that Russians is in awe of NATO power you are delusional. It's not just stupid to compare tech levels or military budget absolute numbers, it's also very dangerous to speculate on what happen when you speak about ICBM wielding nations. It's dr.Strangelove level of stupidity. And very dangerous thinking.

[Ukrainian Ranger]

Russia has demonstrated that it doesn't care about how international community will see their actions....

The fact that Russia didn't attack in early march, when our Army was absolutely not ready can be explained: Using black ops methods, arming militia and recruiting traitors among Ukrainian units is just much cheaper than full scale invasion and occupation. But should that fail...   I think full-scale invasion is very probable

[Owlbread]

Also calling separatists 'pro-russian' is a vast exaggeratoin, mostly they are pro-autonomy. And they are minority. Concerned, but still minority. Most russian ukrainians does not want to be part of Russia and vice versa. I am tired of both sides using strong words, which only says about both sides went strongly on propaganda. But for christ sake, where is western neutral media? Why to get neutral(or not so much) opinion I need to open up something like aljazeera?

Judging by what this Cossack volunteer from Krasnodar (who was also in Crimea) says he's hoping for the annexation of the Donbass. Reclaim Russian territory, no less. Autonomy doesn't seem to be on his mind.

[miljan]

Also calling separatists 'pro-russian' is a vast exaggeratoin, mostly they are pro-autonomy. And they are minority. Concerned, but still minority. Most russian ukrainians does not want to be part of Russia and vice versa. I am tired of both sides using strong words, which only says about both sides went strongly on propaganda. But for christ sake, where is western neutral media? Why to get neutral(or not so much) opinion I need to open up something like aljazeera?

Judging by what this Cossack volunteer from Krasnodar says he's hoping for the annexation of the Donbass. Reclaim Russian territory, no less.

I think he is talking about local people that are pro russians

[Owlbread]

Do we actually know how many of the "local people" are out on the streets compared to Russian and Belarusian volunteers?

[misko27]

If this forum is mostly liberal, why it's so unipolar? I realize there many non-liberals, but why majority is so hostile and unipolar? Making statements like all media in Russia is propaganda? It's false statement. And it's just one example. Why UR can go gung ho and thats absolutely normal thing? Why isnulting Russia is okay and opposite action is a straight ban?

Eh, there are much more hostile American forums out there. At least people around here don't actually accuse pro-Russian people here of being paid Russian agents and don't seriously suggest that any person with pro-Russian views should be banned for potentially being a Russian agent, like some folks on Reddit.

Better then Reddit, that's nice. Bay12: 100% fewer shill accusations then Reddit. We need that on the announcement board.

[gogis]

Russia has demonstrated that it doesn't care about how international community will see their actions....

Yet Russia still couldn't get an answer from west of why NATO keep going eastwards and plant bases, surrounding Russia. Yeah yeah, it's sounds like paranoia, but that phenomena was never explained. I like how west invented term "conspiracy theory" for unlikely truth. Btw, you know what purpose of NATO ofc (sure?)

Why you keep accepting countries closer and closer to our border? "It's not your business".
(I like how telling is this demotivator http://www.batr.org/sitebuildercontent/sitebuilderpictures/natorussia.jpg)
What with a vocal promise of Reagan administration to not push NATO eastwards? "It's was not written on paper"
Why you put missile defence in Poland? "To protect against Iran"

You got to be kidding me. You can't honestly and deliberately answer to any of that questions.
And you expect any other answer from paranoid ex-KGB agent? Putin is most likely insane. Or atleast sort of. And he now contagious and population receiving it. I gulped on my coffee when I saw in a work chat "Ура! Отжали таки Крым!". It was opening wtf moment when I realised how serious is that. But who concocted all that situation beforehand?

[mainiac]

It has nothing to do with NATO, as it can not intervene if ukraine is attacked. And yes NATO will not retaliate if russia would openly invade it, they would supply ukraine with weapons and similar, but nothing more.

Here is not problem NATO, but simply a full open conflict with ukraine.

You seem to be under the misconception that because NATO is soft and fuzzy right now towards Russia NATO will always be soft and fuzzy.  NATO behaves a certain way towards Russia because it's expected that Russia will behave a certain way.  If Russia changes it's behavior radically, so will NATO.

Russia genuinely surprised everyone when the invaded Crimea.  That's why they met so little opposition, you don't defend against something you think isn't going to happen.  It was possible to push the envelope a little but it's not like Russia could do literally anything it wanted.  The element of surprise is gone now.  If Russia invades Ukraine thinking there wont be any response Russia will find itself just as surprised as NATO was a month ago.

Yet Russia still couldn't get an answer from west of why NATO keep going eastwards and plant bases, surrounding Russia. Yeah yeah, it's sounds like paranoia, but that phenomena was never explained. I like how west invented term "conspiracy theory" for unlikely truth. Btw, you know what purpose of NATO ofc (sure?)

Russia couldn't get an answer for why those countries needed a defensive alliance against Russia so it decided to provide an answer?

[misko27]

gogis you appear to be the extreme between the extremes. I need a new dimension for the chart now.

[gogis]

Also calling separatists 'pro-russian' is a vast exaggeratoin, mostly they are pro-autonomy. And they are minority. Concerned, but still minority. Most russian ukrainians does not want to be part of Russia and vice versa. I am tired of both sides using strong words, which only says about both sides went strongly on propaganda. But for christ sake, where is western neutral media? Why to get neutral(or not so much) opinion I need to open up something like aljazeera?

Judging by what this Cossack volunteer from Krasnodar (who was also in Crimea) says he's hoping for the annexation of the Donbass. Reclaim Russian territory, no less. Autonomy doesn't seem to be on his mind.

Let me put it bluntly.
Russia doesnt want to annex any parts of Ukraine. It's incredible economic burden, and, most importanly - against public opinion. Of both countries. And Putin is not going to risk that.
And don't believe Knit Tie, actually Putin was elected by majority. You can see it, if you live here. Majority was pro-Putin.
Also notice that majority of Ukraine is against annexation. "Donetsk Republic" sporting it's own flag, for that matters.

Most russians perceive current Ukraine goverment as illegal and perceive it's as a coup being orchestrated by US. That just majority opinion, not a fact. Also early in this thread was a recent poll results on various matters from ukrainians. And I believe these numbers are pretty correct. Notice no majority to secede to Russia, actually we talking single digits.

If you happened to know russian I would provide you with dozens of links on russian main TV-channels talk shows where both sides(including ukrainians, no maidan) concur on the matter that annexation is not going to happen, ever. Following your agenda that all russian media is rigged, it's a projection to future.

Further annexation is not going to happen

[Ukrainian Ranger]

(I like how telling is this demotivator http://www.batr.org/sitebuildercontent/sitebuilderpictures/natorussia.jpg)

I think such a map can be drawn around ANY country in the world. Even here it looks like NATO plans to attack China... Should we expect China invading neighbors to counter that?

Putin's actions is not an answer to "NATO aggressive policy"
It is an empire building from a little crazy man. Empire building that is supported by huge majority of Russians (at least majority of Russians that matter. Idiots are unimportant. Before being insulted learn the etymology of the word )

I knew that war has started as soon as first Ukrainians died at Maydan but even I was surprised with the boldness in Crimea.

[miljan]

It has nothing to do with NATO, as it can not intervene if ukraine is attacked. And yes NATO will not retaliate if russia would openly invade it, they would supply ukraine with weapons and similar, but nothing more.

Here is not problem NATO, but simply a full open conflict with ukraine.

You seem to be under the misconception that because NATO is soft and fuzzy right now towards Russia NATO will always be soft and fuzzy.  NATO behaves a certain way towards Russia because it's expected that Russia will behave a certain way.  If Russia changes it's behavior radically, so will NATO.

Russia genuinely surprised everyone when the invaded Crimea.  That's why they met so little opposition, you don't defend against something you think isn't going to happen.  It was possible to push the envelope a little but it's not like Russia could do literally anything it wanted.  The element of surprise is gone now.  If Russia invades Ukraine thinking there wont be any response Russia will find itself just as surprised as NATO was a month ago.

Listen. If you want to talk about reality, NATO behaving for the last 20 (and probably more) years is very shitty, and is behaving very similar to russia. Also it has nothing to do with NATO being soft and fuzzy now. If you think because russia surprised everyone is the reason why nato didn't act, i would say you should think again.

Ukaines is not in NATO, its simple as that. If russia attacks ukraine NATO would not act directly in any way (indirectly yes). If you rthink they would, well you can, but again, there is very little logic to think like that, but than again, there is also very little logic to think russia will fully invade ukraine in a open war.