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Until I figure out how to un-close it, at least.

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So yeah.

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Total Members Voted: 0

Voting closed: May 01, 2014, 02:06:40 pm

[smjjames]

Aaand the Ukrainian PM is accusing Russia of wanting to start WWIII, which I think is pure hype.

A regional war, maybe, but a World War? No, China would have to get involved in order for it to be a World War and they aren't interested in fighting with Russia over Ukraine. Sure they might try to do something about one of it's territorial disputes or Taiwan while the US is distracted, but they aren't interested in starting a war.

NK is the real wild card though and if they decide that now is the opportunity to strike.....   They wouldn't last long though and their alliance with China is tenous. The only reason China hasn't abandoned them completely is because they don't want a flood of refugees coming over their borders.

[RedKing]

e Ukrainian government haven't been doing themselves any favors when it comes to rhetoric.

[smjjames]

Also, Russias credit rating has been lowered to a notch above junk rating over the Ukraine crisis (and possibly independent of the sanctions). I wonder how much longer until that rating hits rock bottom.

Ukraines credit rating isn't great either though.

[LordSlowpoke]

as long as putin doesn't flip out and nationalize everything a few years down the line this is the perfect time to be investing in russia-related things

which i am doing, admittedly i'm not throwing mounds of money at it but i am

[Ukrainian Ranger]

Yatsenyuk loves big loud empty words. It is his style since forever. Don't pay attention to that as we Ukrainians do


As for Russian economy, I had a pleasure to see a Russian TV program where they explained how good it is for Russian economy that prices for Russian stocks are falling. I am sure they'll say the same about the credit rating.

[smjjames]

I suppose it's good in the sense that there is nowhere to go but up. Not sure if the credit rating was actually knocked down for financial reasons or more political, as if saying 'Behave! You!'. Sort of like what they did after the government shutdown. I saw that as them saying to congress 'stop acting like idiots and get things straight'.

Despite all the initial doom and gloom over it, AA+ doesn't seem all that different from AAA+, besides the prestige of being in the AAA club.

[Ukrainian Ranger]

Well, here are prices for Sberbank  shares

It is the largest bank of Russia and the third largest bank of Europe. Doubt that falling like that can be good

[Knit tie]

To be fair, a recession that would put Putin's oligarch buddies in their place was long imminent in Russian Economy. Ukrainian crisis was just a catalyst.

[mainiac]

Despite all the initial doom and gloom over it, AA+ doesn't seem all that different from AAA+, besides the prestige of being in the AAA club.

I'd go a step further and say you should go ahead and ignore the ratings agencies entirely when it comes to public debt.  Rating agencies are good if you don't have time to read through a firms assets and liabilities and need a snap judgement but they aren't particularly insightful when it comes to anticipating the trends in public policy that tell you about the odds of a government default.

In Russia's case I would say that a default is much more likely then any other major economy given their recent history of debt restructuring and the 90s inflation coupled with their extremely vulnerable trading position (can you name anything but energy off hand that is made in Russia and consumed in Europe or the US?  How about Switzerland or Greece or Canada?).  But saying that Russian default is a lot more likely then a French one or American one isn't saying a whole lot; that could mean a 1% chance or a 50% chance.

[Sergarr]

The 90s inflation has already resulted in a default. It was in 1998. Many people were "upset" about it.

[mainiac]

given their recent history of debt restructuring

I'm a grad student, euphemism is my first language.

[da_nang]

One day last month Roman Romanenko, a Ukrainian living in the Russian city of Vologda, came home to find a swastika painted on his door and flyers stuffed in his neighbours' mailboxes.

The flyers read: "Living in your building is a piece of Lviv scum", referring to a western Ukrainian city with a strong sense of national identity, many of whose residents supported the protest movement that led to the ousting of former Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovich.

I guess Ukraine should invade Russia now to protect Ukrainians?

[smjjames]

One day last month Roman Romanenko, a Ukrainian living in the Russian city of Vologda, came home to find a swastika painted on his door and flyers stuffed in his neighbours' mailboxes.

The flyers read: "Living in your building is a piece of Lviv scum", referring to a western Ukrainian city with a strong sense of national identity, many of whose residents supported the protest movement that led to the ousting of former Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovich.

I guess Ukraine should invade Russia now to protect Ukrainians?

It would be hilarious (in an ironic way, not in a 'yay war lol' way) for Ukraine to use Russias excuse and use it against them. Only problem, their military is absolutely no match for Russia. If it were, then Russia wouldn't have done what they did in the first place.

 Just goes to show how vague and abuseable (and silly) that excuse can be. Sort of like Iran saying to Iraq 'Hey! You're oppressing the Sunni faith! (Err, or is it Shi'ite? Forgive me if I've got it backwards with Iran), I declare war!' Heck, can you imagine the US using that causus belli every time Americans got abused in another country? Or just replace ethnic Russian with some other group. However, I realize that there comes a point where you've just gotta intervene like with genocide, but was Ukraine commiting genocide? no.

It's probably inevitable that minorities on both sides will get caught up in the whole thing. I'm sure there are ethnic Russians in Ukraine who don't want to have closer relations with Russia.

[Zangi]

One day last month Roman Romanenko, a Ukrainian living in the Russian city of Vologda, came home to find a swastika painted on his door and flyers stuffed in his neighbours' mailboxes.

The flyers read: "Living in your building is a piece of Lviv scum", referring to a western Ukrainian city with a strong sense of national identity, many of whose residents supported the protest movement that led to the ousting of former Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovich.

I guess Ukraine should invade Russia now to protect Ukrainians?

Of course, the Russians are present at the border and will shoot.  Unlike Crimea.

[Ukrainian Ranger]

Well, Russia has troops right near our borders in big clusters... Surprise attack on those could make incoming war somewhat easier

After all, if You take away elite troops, core of Russian army is a bunch of teenagers who are more busy raping each other than learning how to wage war