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Until I figure out how to un-close it, at least.

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So yeah.

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Total Members Voted: 0

Voting closed: May 01, 2014, 02:06:40 pm

[GrizzlyAdamz]

Personally, I'm not so sure anymore.

Seems like Ukraine is calling said bluff, and russian ops grassroots pro-russian separatists/turrurists are getting killed.

If we discount 'bargaining leverage' for a moment, what was Russia aiming for with the pressure in these regions? Could they accept a 'defeat', with Ukraine staying whole and anti-Russian, even after all the talking and bluster?
Could they invade, push over to the Dnieper, and then accept UN peacekeepers & deescalation without giving up the new borders?

[Owlbread]

If we discount 'bargaining leverage' for a moment, what was Russia aiming for with the pressure in these regions?

I wrote a very lengthy piece on page 38 of this thread yesterday that may answer your question. Here is an extract I think is relevant:

Spoiler (click to show/hide)

Ukraine is going to blow up, or is in the process of blowing up. It's going to get very ugly. If the Ukrainian government tries to stamp out the protests, the "war with the people" will become a reality and Easterners will fight Westerners and it will basically be an all-out civil war. Why is this a good thing? It's so terrible it will deter any border country with the USSR like Latvia, Finland or anyone else from doing something stupid that will piss Russia off. It shows them that Russia means business and could possibly drive them into pretty terrible levels of crisis and there's nothing they can do about it.

Putin has his negotiating points; Ukraine becomes a federation, the East forms some kind of Donbass Autonomous Republic within the country and Crimea is recognised by the international community as a part of Russia. Ukraine must also remain neutral for at least 20 years, meaning that they will not be able to join NATO or the EU for two decades, putting a dampener on the entire Euromaidan thing and rendering it all pointless for the pro-Ukrainians. They would also be unable to maintain their attempts to make Donbass Ukrainian again; despite the region being something like 80% Ukrainian during WW1, due to events like the Holodomor and migration the East is very much Russian now. The Ukrainian nationalists were trying to change that with language laws - hence the opposition when Yanukovych's language laws were scrapped which allowed them to basically never use the Ukrainian language.

If Ukraine becomes a Federal state, it will be very unstable. The East and the West will always be at odds with one another, the East being a little Russian Ulster within Ukraine while the West will probably become more Ukrainian. There will also be problems with areas like Odessa where there are many Russians but they aren't necessarily in the Donbass region. That means even the Western province won't be very stable.

If the Ukrainian government ever tries anything that Putin doesn't like, he can ignite tensions in the region pretty easily which could conceivably lead to the Donbass Republic holding an independence referendum then joining the Russian Federation. Regardless of what Putin says right now about the fact that the East is Ukrainian, just Russian speaking, so too was Crimea. The words are meaningless.

Could they accept a 'defeat', with Ukraine staying whole and anti-Russian, even after all the talking and bluster?

If Ukraine somehow remains whole, the East will not be anti-Russian. It will remain pro-Russian pretty much no matter what. It's the West that will be anti-Russian. It already is, as you know.

Could they invade, push over to the Dnieper, and then accept UN peacekeepers & deescalation without giving up the new borders?

I think the Russians are more interested in allowing this to blow up into a civil war rather than directly intervening.

Ukrainian Ranger often says that Ukraine is too united to ever have a "civil war", but I'm not sure what you'd call it. The Russians are in the minority and the "East of Ukraine" i.e. Donbass isn't really that big, but maybe it's big enough. An insurrection or something, maybe?

In other news:

It looks like some people are going to take the fight to the Russian irredentists. Local donbass miners and veterans of the Chernobyl clean-up, believe it or not:

“The events of the recent days clearly demonstrate that separatists who are terrorists actually, have crossed the red line, after which a civil war starts,” the address of the Independent trade union of Donbass Mineworkers and Donetsk regional organisation “All-Ukrainian Association of Chernobyl veterans” reads.

Besides, they believe that the authorities and law-enforcing agencies had demonstrated their complete inaptitude and criminal negligence.

“Extremists who had passed all bounds have started to seize administrative buildings, abduct and use weapons, among other things, to give it out to other protesters. The use of guns has already resulted in victims,” the address underlines. “We say that the central government who in fact has left Donbass to sink or swim, will not defend our region. It would be done by us. We are ready to defend our country, our region, our families and loved ones for the sake of our common future.”

This address has been signed by the chairman of the Independent Trade Union of Donbass Mineworkers and the chairman of the Donetsk regional branch of “All-Ukrainian Association of Chernobyl Veterans” Volodymir Derkach.

It looks like there's some Donbass fellows that are willing to fight for Ukraine, at least in part.

[GrizzlyAdamz]

I don't buy the 'east Ukraine is pro-Russian' spiel. Protests are too small, (only notched 1000 in Kharkiv?), reports of Russian interference are too rampant, (remember that group of 'locals' that stormed the theatre instead of townhall?).

[XXSockXX]

I'm not gonna make any predictions anymore, but I tend to lean towards the idea that there will be no direct Russian-Ukrainain war. I guess there will be continued insurrections by pro-Russian forces, at worst up to a Russian sponsored (there are no more doubts about Russian involvement now) civil war. Clearly Putin is trying to prevent the current Ukrainian government from consolidating.
By orchestrating these protest he puts the Ukrainian government in a bad position, they can either do nothing and have Ukraine sink into chaos or they can fight and risk Russian intervention, which would be a going down in glory scenario. The government seems to favour the first option, hoping that a referendum could somehow turn this around. My guess is that with increased federalism and continued unrest, the government will become weak enough to not be a threat to Russia anymore, willing to accept any demands that are thrown at them.
Not sure if Ukrainian leadership is doing the right thing now, but I certainly wouldn't want to trade places with them, whatever they do, it will be potentially dangerous and wrong.

[mainiac]

Wow Russia, wow.

...
Over the course of several hours of coverage on Wednesday, Rossiya 24 reported that four to 11 peaceful, pro-Russian “supporters of federalization” in Ukraine were killed at an airfield near the town of Kramatorsk in eastern Ukraine when a mixed force of right-wing Ukrainians and foreign mercenaries strafed an airfield with automatic gunfire from helicopter gunships before landing and seizing control.

In fact, on the ground, a small crowd of residents surrounded a Ukrainian commander who had landed at the airfield in a helicopter, and while there were reports of stones thrown and shots fired in the air, only a few minor injuries were reported with no signs of fatalities.
...

[Sergarr]

Wow Russia, wow.

...
Over the course of several hours of coverage on Wednesday, Rossiya 24 reported that four to 11 peaceful, pro-Russian “supporters of federalization” in Ukraine were killed at an airfield near the town of Kramatorsk in eastern Ukraine when a mixed force of right-wing Ukrainians and foreign mercenaries strafed an airfield with automatic gunfire from helicopter gunships before landing and seizing control.

In fact, on the ground, a small crowd of residents surrounded a Ukrainian commander who had landed at the airfield in a helicopter, and while there were reports of stones thrown and shots fired in the air, only a few minor injuries were reported with no signs of fatalities.
...

And yet they don't cite direct proofs of Russian lies. Why do that, if it's so obvious, even though we don't have any confirmations, that Russian state media lie?

If they say that both Russian and Ukrainian media lies, how can they claim to know the truth™?

[Ukrainian Ranger]

Ukrainian Ranger often says that Ukraine is too united to ever have a "civil war", but I'm not sure what you'd call it. The Russians are in the minority and the "East of Ukraine" i.e. Donbass isn't really that big, but maybe it's big enough. An insurrection or something, maybe?

I think it is very possible that IRA or ETA like organization will emerge in  Ukraine and we'll get "fun" for decades...
By a civil war I mean Syria or Libya-like situation. Can't see it happening. Maybe I don't want to see that and my belief is a result of that... But I can't find that large support of a civil war among our people

Not sure if Ukrainian leadership is doing the right thing now, but I certainly wouldn't want to trade places with them, whatever they do, it will be potentially dangerous and wrong.

+1. I often unhappy with their decisions but I am aware how shitty situation that they need to manage is. My "advices" to them are as useful as those advices to footballers during a match shout by supporters

[GlyphGryph]

http://www.kyivpost.com/content/ukraine/russian-paramilitary-leaders-in-eastern-ukraine-caught-on-tape-communicating-with-moscow-343644.html

[Ukrainian Ranger]

And yet they don't cite direct proofs of Russian lies. Why do that, if it's so obvious, even though we don't have any confirmations, that Russian state media lie?

If they say that both Russian and Ukrainian media lies, how can they claim to know the truth™?

You see... It is very simple. When you read Russian media you know it is a lie in 100% of cases. Ukrainian media may lie or not.
That is called a reputation. When the only thing you do is lying in oblivious way, soon no one will trust your words even if you'll start saying truth

[Sheb]

And yet they don't cite direct proofs of Russian lies. Why do that, if it's so obvious, even though we don't have any confirmations, that Russian state media lie?

How can you prove that nothing happened? Russia is making a claim, but do not provide proofs. We're in the 21st century, you cannot strife people from an helicopter without at least someone whipping out their smartphones and recording some of it.

Edit: Closest thing I could find is this CNN segment taken a few hours after retaking the airfield. The Ukrainian army is firing warning shots, which may not be the best thing to do but will please UR I guess. However it doesn't look like they killed people, or I think "Drunkely dance in front of the soldiers" wouldn't be such a popular hobby.

[GrizzlyAdamz]

'Uploader made the video unavailable in your country :/'

[Sean Mirrsen]

'Uploader made the video unavailable in your country :/'

There are ways around that, y'know. SaveFrom dot net and Anonymouse dot org, to name a few.

[Ukrainian Ranger]

Facepalm. Brilliant. Looks like enemy got 6 APCs.

How? Very simply. It was blocked by a crowd on the street, then "unknown" armed well trained men simply came closer and disarmed the crews. That is why any person who comes close to an APC should be shoot dead

The worst problem is when army is not ready to shot the enemy because of the mental barrier.

[GrizzlyAdamz]

Yeeah, given all the footage out of Iraq & company, that first video from way back where the tank column was traveling through a small town and the roads were /lined/ with people was kinda jarring. Not surprised.

'Uploader made the video unavailable in your country :/'

There are ways around that, y'know. SaveFrom dot net and Anonymouse dot org, to name a few.

Still having problems.
Where do the people that can see this thing live?

[Sheb]

I'm in Belgium.

UR, source?