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[TheDarkStar]

Isn't that the entire point of his argument? He pointed out a few things that could happen and the one that he thought was most likely. To figure out which possibility happened, he recommended lynching Deathsword/Persus13.

Question for you: Why is his possibility not likely?

Yes, I am aware he has made that recommendation.  What I'm not aware of is any reasoning at all to support that recommendation.  Without that I don't see why I should pay any attention to it.

I think it's less likely than the "Tiruin is converter" theory because Tiruin's roleclaim is obviously fake.

There IS reasoning. It's in the post that 4mask made. It is a good way to figure out which circumstances we are working with.

Also, Tiruin's roleclaim is NOT obviously fake. It's not a good build, but that's more of a mistake than a scumtell. Also, I don't really see your claims as trustworthy - you've been too scummy for me to believe you at all.

Remind me again why you think that Tiruin is the converter.

[Toaster]

Why are you discussing anything with a confirmed scum?

[Toaster]

Hm.

If the mafia started with a day AND night converter, and have converted three people at this point, then there are:

6 scum
7 townies

Even if we lynch the night converter, it becomes:

5 scum
7 townies

and if no one dies in the night, D3's convert makes it:

6 scum
6 townies

...which is a loss.  Short of a block or redirect, town could be already screwed.

[TheDarkStar]

Hm.

If the mafia started with a day AND night converter, and have converted three people at this point, then there are:

6 scum
7 townies

Even if we lynch the night converter, it becomes:

5 scum
7 townies

and if no one dies in the night, D3's convert makes it:

6 scum
6 townies

...which is a loss.  Short of a block or redirect, town could be already screwed.

A Day convert requires a set-up that isn't there, along with two people with convert (one for day, one for night). Enough powers are accounted for that there can't be a day-convert (yet). Why do you raise the point?

[Toaster]

Mostly because I'm not through reading to the point that powers are starting to be accounted for.

That said:

Starting 5

-1 - hardcore (all protects on you fail- cannot be taken alongside night-kill immune)
-1 - dense (you gain no experience points for surviving the day)
-1 - Mercenary (all your powers cost one point to play. Must have at least one applicable power in order to take this flaw)
-1 - Blatant (every time you target a player, it will be announced at the end of the phase that you targeted them, but not what with)
-2 - unreliable (your powers and autos have a 50% chance of failure. Must have at least one power or auto in order to take this flaw)
-2 - magnetic (your powers have a 50% chance of targeting yourself- must have at least one other-affecting power to take this)

8 points of flaws

Get cleansed

+1 at night, take no N1 action

5+8+1 = 14 points; enough to buy Day-Convert.  Unless someone can prove this hasn't happened, it's totally possible someone was day converted today.  That changes the current numbers to:

5 scum
8 town

That's enough to make today LYLO: a mislynch would lead to this D3 start

6 scum
6 town

... and a day convert is still in the cards.

Even lynching a converter (assuming the scenario, either one is okay at this point) leads to a post-convert D3:

5 scum
7 town

which is still MYLO tomorrow.  If a non-converter scum is lynched, it's then:

5 scum
6 town

LYLO D4.  So assuming the current double converter (something I will assume until proven otherwise), we have to lynch one converter today and the other in the next two, assuming we at least lynch scum D3.


In any case, NQT:  Is there a mod extend for a replacement with less than 24 hours to go in the game?  If not, Toaster: Extend.



[This is all informational: analysis will come when I'm caught up.]

[TheDarkStar]

Toaster: There was a fortune teller who told people what roles there were, and there hasn't been a conflict yet.

[Toaster]

Oh God why did I join this.  I don't even know where to start.  Everything I know is wrong



Okay, so Native claimed a fortune teller list.  Ignoring the lack of counterclaim, has anyone offered proof of Native's innocence?  If he's scum (wouldn't even have to be original scum) he could have fudged the results a bit to really mess with people's claims.

Also, TDS, how'd you get your innocent?

[Toaster]

Is there an action claim summary?  All I see is power claim summaries.


I'm willing to bet good money that Leafsnail was converted N1.  Why?  He would have very loudly browbeaten any scummate that tried to take innocent as a power.  I'm mentally willing to clear Jim over this as well (which also makes him current town; lack of Day Convert is yay.  Also, no Cleanse.).  Initial read puts Tiruin as town too, because of this post:

Quickpost

P-Luke is innocent.

Having played a good bit with Tiruin, I don't see Scum Tiruin making such a play; Town Tiruin is willing to risk herself to shield others she perceives as innocent.

[Leafsnail]

If Native is a scum fortune teller (which wouldn't be a strange role for them to take) then we could have a day/night converter team yes.  We're basically completely boned in that case though.

[TheDarkStar]

Also, TDS, how'd you get your innocent?

I Changeling'd Objective.

[Tiruin]

In which my clain is denounced with certainties such as

I think it's less likely than the "Tiruin is converter" theory because Tiruin's roleclaim is obviously fake.

without backing.

So...why?

Why are you discussing anything with a confirmed scum?

Info~
Leafsnail is darn good at this, but his suspect list gives credit to who is scum, and who ain't. And those that are scum are regularly that which are not labeled as scum-given the perspective he wants himself to be seen as.

Which means he's doing darn well in doing it.
^{Until I noticed he's denouncing my claim as false :v}

Get cleansed

I expected the Cleanse power to show up. It didn't, which fixed my fears.
...This is just my commentary.

Oh God why did I join this.  I don't even know where to start.  Everything I know is wrong

Welcome to the Matrix.

Okay, so Native claimed a fortune teller list.  Ignoring the lack of counterclaim, has anyone offered proof of Native's innocence?  If he's scum (wouldn't even have to be original scum) he could have fudged the results a bit to really mess with people's claims.

Matching lists of people getting what people claimed--and that if he was a scum fortune teller, we'd be very muchly well scr-
Err, you'll have to read up on that--he's basically proven town as far as I see it.

Also, TDS, how'd you get your innocent?

He Changeling'd Objective.

In which Objective did not get TDS' claimed 'miller'. Which does not show up when given to scum, as scum technically cannot get miller.

But Innocent can be gotten by town.

If Native is a scum fortune teller (which wouldn't be a strange role for them to take) then we could have a day/night converter team yes.  We're basically completely boned in that case though.

...This is true. We'd be scr-
We'll find out when we get there.

I'm willing to bet good money that Leafsnail was converted N1.  Why?  He would have very loudly browbeaten any scummate that tried to take innocent as a power.  I'm mentally willing to clear Jim over this as well (which also makes him current town; lack of Day Convert is yay.  Also, no Cleanse.).

. . .
. . .
. . .
While this does make sense on 'who was converted', we'd be facing at most 4 voices today that have the motive of disruption or misinformation. If LS and Jim are cleared, then who are the rest of scum?

Having played a good bit with Tiruin, I don't see Scum Tiruin making such a play; Town Tiruin is willing to risk herself to shield others she perceives as innocent.

Yay, someone gets my meta!
^{Though this is metaknowledge...
But still I'm happy someone gets my meta!}

Err, is that all you've got on me being town?

[Toaster]

If Native is a scum fortune teller (which wouldn't be a strange role for them to take) then we could have a day/night converter team yes.  We're basically completely boned in that case though.

This is essentially impossible, though.  There's basically no way to get a usable day-convert without Cleanse, and to be able to have both cleansed and fortune-told, you'd need (at minimum) ten points (free cleanse and fortune teller).  There's no way to get that without Magnetic or Unreliable (or Blatant/nonvoter, but that combo doesn't exist because neither blatant player is a nonvoter.)  In other words, we can believe there's only one convert so far (you).


So!

Definitely Scum, but Not Converter:
Leafsnail [N1 convert most likely]
Objective

Probably Town:
Tiruin
Jim

Not Converter, most likely:
Tack  [Recycled, which would have blocked him]
TheDarkStar  [Changed with Objective]
Jack A T  [Claimed logical-sounding flavor inspect on Tack D1; targeted 4maskwolf in the night]

Possible converters:

mastahcheese  [Nonvoter]
4maskwolf  [Nonvoter]
NativeForeigner [Claimed Fortune Teller]
Persus13
Tawarochir 


There's probably more to be seen here, but I'm still digging, and I'm taking a stream-of-consciousness approach until I'm caught up.  If anyone (besides the scum) have any issues with those reads, please let me know.


Tiruin:  You're not the converter, at least, if we assume Leaf was converted.  I still haven't read the whole thread, and forsee D2 at least being heavily logic and deduction based instead of inference and behavioral, at least until I can eliminate some people from being converters.


4maskwolf and Mastahcheese:  If you could vote now, whom would you be voting?  Why?

[Tack]

Mastahcheese has claimed so many free/day abilities that the fortune tell list would fall apart without them, so I'm willing to believe town there.
Added to this, 4maskwolf has claimed a town kill, but as we're not sure what's been Santa'd in the night, it's possible that he's the converter.

And of course, Toaster could always be the converter. If it's Lylo on a wrong decision, there's no reason OWM wouldn't have gone for a 1v1. This is only saved due to Leafsnail backing off from OWM to chase Deathsword. If Leaf was on the assumption of town, then a false cop claim would be like a big neon arrow pointing to the converter.
But there's always the slim chance that you and Leaf are both scum.

[4maskwolf]

Okay Toaster, a few things:

4maskwolf and Mastahcheese:  If you could vote now, whom would you be voting?  Why?

Persus.  Everything clicks out logically.  I'll get to my reasoning for why native isn't scum in a moment.  As well as my reasoning why Jim is scum.

firstly, why I am unlikely to be the converter:
I have claimed a kill, and nobody else has contested it.  We know what Leafsnail and objective have, and there is no way they could have packed an extra kill in their arsenal.  Additionally, by the fortune teller results, in order to get a convert instead of a kill I would have to drop miller and kill and pick up convert, hardcore, and DENSE.  And would have 0 points left currently, because of dense.  However, Cheese reviewed my remaining points and found that I had one point, which wouldn't otherwise be possible.

Now, why native isn't scum:
It would have been trivial for Native to leave the convert off the list, leaving just the kill as an obvious scumtell.  It would have been trivial to frame me as a member of the scum team and kill me, which would have yielded no information for the town to go off of.  In the meantime, the scum convert another person, bringing them up to five members.  To the town's 12.  Leaving it in actual LYLO, barring the ability to kill off or block the converter.

Cheese has confirmed his ability to day-sap by doing so to Leafy, and thus cannot be converter.

Tawarochir is unlikely to be converter because of the claim of magnetic.  The fact that he has magnetic in and of itself would be a horrible scumplay on his part.  And one that his scumbuddies would have talked him out of.  And since we have no competing claims for the last magnetic, it makes sense.

If native is scum, the game is already over.  However, I find it highly unlikely that he would pick fortune teller as scum, and there is no reason in hell that he would have been converted because he was entirely absent day one due to the hammer.

Also, Leafsnail was not the convert.  His combo is a HORRIFIC town combo because it is far more likely to hit town than scum, particularly night one, and the total neutralization of a town power role is a really, really bad thing.  Having plain recycle is okay for town, but running a day-sap on them is just not a towny move because it could permanently remove a player from the game.  Particularly if you target it at someone who is unable to vote, they basically become a spectator.  Also, learn to aim better, scummy mcscummerton Leafy.

Jim is probably a scum because he is buying into the crap Leafsnail is trying to feed the town.  He is also the one who would logically be the first to be converted at night, because of his experience.  His efforts to attack Tiruin are feeble at best and downright stupid at worst, and he has no evidence beyond "that seems like a bad role combo and you're acting defensive".

Extend, I'm not letting the scum win this one with bullshit logic.

PPE: Tack, there are two claimed santas, and neither of them targeted me.  Also, see my note above about point discrepancies.  That would require Mastahcheese, Tawarochir, and myself to all be scum, and you just said you believe Cheese to be town.

[Tiruin]

Mastahcheese has claimed so many free/day abilities that the fortune tell list would fall apart without them, so I'm willing to believe town there.
Added to this, 4maskwolf has claimed a town kill, but as we're not sure what's been Santa'd in the night, it's possible that he's the converter.

He claimed so many that fit, actually.
I checked.
We've one miller claim too much instead of too little.

PFP