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[mastahcheese]

If I had access to my laptop, I'd search my records. I don't think it'd take long since I haven't really played very many games.

[Leafsnail]

The easiest way to do it is probably to run a search on your username in this board.
For the sake of argument I'll include every completed game other than Systematically Make Others Lose and KotM, even though a lot of them were unfair one way or the other.

Spoiler: Town, won 23/48 (click to show/hide)

Vote Mafia: Town, Win
Time Travel Mafia: Town, Win
Vote Mafia 2: Town, Win
Weirdo Mafia: Town, Loss
Wizard Duel: Town, Loss
Toon Mafia IV: Town, Win
Not-so-beginner-mafia: Town, Loss
Wizard Duel 2: Town, Loss
Parallel World: Town(x2), Loss
Kill Webadict Now: Town, Win
Toon Mafia V: Town, Win
Paranormal 11: Town, Loss
Chosen: Town, Win
Don't Outguess the Mod: Town(ish), win
Wizard Duel 3: Town, Loss
BYOR 2: Town, Win
One Lynch Mafia: Town, Win
Paranormal 12: Town, Loss
Vector's Bastard: Town, Loss
Second Chance Mafia: Town, Win
Vote Mafia 4: Town, Loss
Near-Mountainous: Town, Win
Christmas Mafia: Town, Win
Kingmaker: Town, Loss
BYOR 3: Town, Loss
Glyph's Quick Bastard: Town, Loss
Cybrid Mafia: Town, Loss
Paranormal 14: Town, Loss
iPick: Town, Win
Vote Mafia 5: Town, Win
Vote Mafia, Special: Town, Loss
Monks and Masons: Town, Loss
Vote Mafia 7: Town, Loss
Supernatural: Town, Win
Wizard Duel 4: Town, Loss
alien zombie demons GAEM: Town, Win
Bastard Paranormal: Town, Loss
Kingmaker 4: Town, Win
Paranormal 18: Town, Loss
Twitter Mafia: Town, Loss
NSBM, Panda: Town, Win
Totem Mafia: Town, Win
BSER: Town, Loss
Bad Dudes: Town, Win
BYOR 8: Town, Loss
Witches Coven, Heart of Darkness: Town, Win
BM XLI: Town, Loss
The Lonely Prince: Town, Win

Spoiler: Mafia, won 8/15 (click to show/hide)

Not So Beginner's Mafia: Mafia, Win
uPick, Panda Edition: Mafia, win
Rysith's Semi-Bastard: Mafia, Loss
Bellsounder: Mafia, Win
Paranormal 13: Mafia, Win
Toon Mafia 6: Mafia, Loss
Paranormal 15: Mafia, Loss
Paranormal 16: Mafia, Win
Paranormal 20: Mafia, Loss
Prince's Guard: Mafia, Win
BYOR 11: Mafia, Win
Viva la Revolucion: Mafia, Win
Roguelike Mafia 6: Mafia, Loss
Smster W/ Love: Mafia, Loss
CYOM: Mafia, Loss

Spoiler: Third party, won 5/12 (click to show/hide)

Religion Mafia 2: Third Party, Loss
Paranormal 10: Third Party, Loss
Color Mafia: Third Party, Loss
BYOR: Third Party, Loss
BYOR-ExKirby: Third Party, Win
MSPA 2: Third Party, Loss
Paranormal 17: Third Party, Win
Supernatural 3: Third Party, Win
Supernatural RP: Third Party, Loss
Supernatural 4: Third Party, Win
Totem Mafia 2: Third Party, Loss
TM VII: Third Party, Win

Overall: won 36/75, 48%.

[webadict]

Buh. I thought my 823 was a few to trawl through.

I checked to make sure.

337 pages * 15 PMs / page = 5055 PMs

Wow, I was right.

[notquitethere]

My recent play has greatly improved on my 100% loss record and now I win exactly a 3rd of the time across all mafia subforum games (9/27 games).

Spoiler: 33.33% win rate (click to show/hide)

Mafia Win/Loss 7-16
1. BM XXXVIII: Jackelope Bandits - loss
2. Mafia and Masons and Hackers - loss
3. BM XXXVIV: Arcane Mafia - loss
4. King of the Mafia 3 - loss
5. Roguelike Mafia 6 - loss
6. Magic Mafia - loss
7. The Great Temple - loss
8. Toon Mafia VII - But I Don't Want To Re:Love! - loss
9. BM XLII - loss
10. The Lonely Prince: He Who Shall Serve - loss
11. Witches' Coven: In the Heart of Darkness - technical loss due to unwinnable role, moral and mod appointed victory
12. Supernatural Mafia 6 - loss
13. BYOR 12 - Win!
14. The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly - Win!
15. King of the Mafia 4 - loss
16. Beginner's Mafia XLVI: Unicorn - loss
17. One Day Mafia - Win!
18. Smster W/ Love - Win! (But so did everyone else)
19. Prince Mafia - loss, a few times over
20. Mini Mafia Madness - loss (partial)
21. Jack Simple BYOR (replaced in) - loss
22. Supernatural 7 - Win
23. Flabort's BYOR - Win

Mafia-likes Win/Loss 2-2
1. Viva la Revolucion! - loss
2. Elements 2 - loss
3. Revolution II - The Fires of Rebellion - Win! (my first win on the subforum, 10 games in)
4. Worse Things Happen at Sea... - Win!

Total
9-18

Breakdown by alignment (counting King Mafia and Mini Mafia as town losses, and counting Witches as a town win as my technical alignment was literally unwinnable)

Mafia Win-Loss 4-2
Town Win-Loss 5-11
3rd Party Win-Loss 1-4

[ToonyMan]

Win rates seem to vary between 33% to 50%.

[TolyK]

Whoo! Better than average!

...

I blame luck. >.>

[ToonyMan]

How do you have a 100% successful mafia win record?? Granted, 3 games isn't a whole lot.

[4maskwolf]

Huh.  So my record is just as bad as NQT's, eh?

[TolyK]

How do you have a 100% successful mafia win record?? Granted, 3 games isn't a whole lot.

Uh.

I end up with better players who help me figure out what the hell I'm doing.
Possibly it's because I get better invested in the game, possibly because skillz.

Oh, and technically its 4/4 if you include the lover-to-town-turned-scum game.

P.s. I still suck at mafia as town. :p

[Jack A T]

It's worth noting that win rates don't have all that much to do with the skill of the player in question.  Too many other factors in each game (quality of play from all players in the game, setup balance, luck...).

Just look at all the games in our lists that we say were quite imbalanced, or had a single bad townie undermine the entire town, or had us die N1 and still win, or were outright unwinnable.

[TolyK]

Well, yeah. But statistics are good at being statistics, in that they more or less represent what you can expect the win chance of a player to be, given a particular situation.

[Leafsnail]

The average win rate in mafia isn't actually necessarily 50%, due to the fact that different numbers of people win in different games.  A pro-mafia bias (which I think we had for a good while due to the bad example set by the old beginner setup) would make the average winrate less than 50%.

[Tiruin]

Well, yeah. But statistics are good at being statistics, in that they more or less represent what you can expect the win chance of a player to be, given a particular situation.

Yet you do recall they're translations of an observed happening into numerical form, right? Meant to give a general gist or inferred-then-concluded/categorized idea of a population or sample?

Which doesn't explain the exacts of why that player won/lost or serve as a practical guide on knowing "the win chance of a player to be"? I mean it does do such, if they'd analyze themselves and recheck what they did during those games and create experience out of it to learn from--but that's aside 'just statistics'.

[TolyK]

Tiruin, I totally agree. These would really only be useful if, uh, somebody were betting on a side losing - they'd just average the win chances of each faction, then normalize them to 100%, to get a rough estimate of each faction's victory chance.

The only real practical use would be in balancing actual game setups.

[notquitethere]

I'd say that of the games I lost, a lot of the ones where I was town I died early on and had little impact on the game, or I got to the end and was blindsided by a cult out of nowhere (as in Magic Mafia and Supernatural 6). I've lost as a survivor or serial killer a few times: they're difficult roles to win in and require a lot of luck not to be randomly targeted by the mafia. Playing as mafia I do much better as, but your win is still very much dependent on having  competent allies (I lived a long time in Mafia & Masons despite half my scum team suiciding in the first few hours of play).