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[Persus13]

4maskwolf-
Imperial Guardsman- Solymr, MOWE
Mastahcheese-
TheDarkStar-
notquitethere-
Caz-
Superblackcat-
Darkpaladin109- Caz
Solymr- Mastahcheese, 4maskwolf
Tiruin- notquitethere
MyOwnWorstEnemy-
+!!scientist!!+-
No Lynch-

Not Voting- TDS, SBC, Darkpaladin109, Tiruin, +!!scientist!!+

1 votes to Extend
1 votes to Shorten

Day 1 will end on February 24th at 11:00 PM EST. (About 4.5 hours from now)

[4maskwolf]

So far, all the suspicion comes from the assumption that I would bus on the first day. I wouldn't. It's a terrible idea.

You shouldn't think only how a scum player would play but also how a town player would. Maybe the fact that scum would use good reasoning doesn't mean that townies can't.

I'm going to request a Extend because I don't want any surprises when I wake up.

I never said town can't use good reasoning.  If they couldn't, the game would be so much more simple.  What I'm saying is that you are THINKING LIKE A SCUM WOULD.

I think I have the scumteam:
DP: Why have you hardly posted at all?  The only things that you have said are highly suspicious: are you trying to avoid the questions by passive lurking?
IG: Why do your posts contain little to no substance?  There are no questions to anyone else since the first round of questions, just responses to others.  Why?
Solmyr: You are on your first game, yet you seem to have a fairly good grasp of the game.  You have answered every question until the recent ones with fairly well thought-out answers.  Why have you presented what you would do as scum in several places?  Particularly things that you could well have done/be doing?

I'm voting for Imperial Guardsman because his answers seemed suspicious. He went on the defensive pretty fast when asked about that particular question, and his last vote makes me think that he realized we're onto him and he gave up.
I'll be asleep when the day ends, so if someone wants to point out a different explanation for IG's answers other than he's scum, please do so.

And answering to that question, if a scumbuddy made a mistake I caught, first I would point him out on it IN PRIVATE, so maybe he has time to make up a reasonable excuse. I wouldn't point it out in public unless everyone is already deciding to lynch him. To be fair I have no idea what could I do in that situation to try and save his ass without looking scummy.

IG was under pretty heavy fire, though not immediate lynching from most people.  Who's to say you didn't panic?  I did my first game, as town cop.  Afterwards, I realized my mistake, but it was too late.  How do we know that isn't what's happening now?

[notquitethere]

Why aren't people voting? Don't you realise that the lynch is the weapon of town and by not voting you're hindering the union's cause? I can understand it from the likes of DarkPaladin and to some extent Imperial,but the rest of you have experience with this game and should know better.


Tiruin

Borscht Post coming up.

Borscht is good, a post with content would be better.


Caz

Did you read the flavour text more carefully this time? I'm still getting flashbacks of you claiming Loyalist about 3 times and we still failed to lynch you. What a terrible game.

Hah, yeah, I know what my alignment is and I'm not about to get anything muddled up. This stuff is easy when you're town.


Cheese

Everyone who has cast their vote: I want you to please restate why you are voting the person you are voting, and don't quote yourself from an earlier time.

Tiruin has provided no content all day. All she's done is ask a handful of not-terribly-enlightening questions. Today is the lynch with the lowest cost and it behooves us to get rid of the most useless player at this point. I can't believe there's so many players that haven't cast a vote. Discounting the newer players that don't know better, there's plenty that should know by now that the lynch is the weapon of town and not using it is to self-declare as scum.

notquitethere: What do your "methods" that you were advertising tell you so far? Anything useful?

Typically, scum don't like to use their vote much and they hate shifting it when they do vote. I'd be looking at lynching one of the non-voters. My fuller analysis comes in to full force on Day 2.


MOWE, Solymyr, IG, as vote leader,  unvoted and shortened. He could be voting someone else to break the tie and remove the danger of himself being lynched. Does that look like the actions of a person who's receiving advice from someone in a private chat?


Scientist, isn't IG behaving just like you did in that game we played in a year ago January?

[4maskwolf]

NQT: I've never seen the analysis that scum don't like to use their vote and hate to change it.  You are more experienced than many of the players here: could you explain a bit of higher level psychology of the game, beyond what the bm tells us?  Kind of like an IC, only in a non-beginner-declared game.  Or do you plan on explaining while you go, like you seem to be doing?

[4maskwolf]

Also, NQT: IIRC, you didn't do this much explaining during Smstr W/ Love.  Is it because that was a bastard game or because there are a lot of beginners or fairly new players here?

[notquitethere]

It's about risk and proactivity, Wolf. Scum are between the risks of posting too much and slipping up, and not posting enough and being called out on it. This tends to put them in the mid-range of post, just above inexperienced players that don't know what they should be doing. At the same time, good town players proactively search out scum. This leads them to have higher post counts and a greater likelihood of switching their vote as their reads shift. Scum typically see vote-switching as risky, as each vote has to be justified and that justification can't flow naturally from an honest appraisal of the situation. The thing is, it's easier to town-hunt than scum-hunt. I'm pretty sure IG and DarkPaladin are just poor town players; Solymr has the highest post-count and has also cast a vote, so is the most likely to be competent town.

Really though, I have theories as to why this stuff is the case, but it is just a brute fact of voting data: overall, the highest poster in a game is nearly always town; players that vote the most are most often town; players that make an RVS vote and stick to it with little justification are most often scum or inexperienced new players.

Also, NQT: IIRC, you didn't do this much explaining during Smstr W/ Love.  Is it because that was a bastard game or because there are a lot of beginners or fairly new players here?

No, just because that was a bastard game with no clear wincons. I'm usually play quite forthrightly, trying to get everyone to play to the best of their abilities.

[4maskwolf]

It's about risk and proactivity, Wolf. Scum are between the risks of posting too much and slipping up, and not posting enough and being called out on it. This tends to put them in the mid-range of post, just above inexperienced players that don't know what they should be doing. At the same time, good town players proactively search out scum. This leads them to have higher post counts and a greater likelihood of switching their vote as their reads shift. Scum typically see vote-switching as risky, as each vote has to be justified and that justification can't flow naturally from an honest appraisal of the situation. The thing is, it's easier to town-hunt than scum-hunt. I'm pretty sure IG and DarkPaladin are just poor town players; Solymr has the highest post-count and has also cast a vote, so is the most likely to be competent town.

Really though, I have theories as to why this stuff is the case, but it is just a brute fact of voting data: overall, the highest poster in a game is nearly always town; players that vote the most are most often town; players that make an RVS vote and stick to it with little justification are most often scum or inexperienced new players.

Also, NQT: IIRC, you didn't do this much explaining during Smstr W/ Love.  Is it because that was a bastard game or because there are a lot of beginners or fairly new players here?

No, just because that was a bastard game with no clear wincons. I'm usually play quite forthrightly, trying to get everyone to play to the best of their abilities.

I see what you are saying.  Also, given the number of newer players here, there are fewer people who are likely to have practiced hiding their scum nature.

Unvote.  Don't think I've forgotten you, Solymr, nor am I just following NQT's lead.  I looked back through your posts and found this:

I was suspecting IG before I made that question. In fact I made it to see if the answer would make me suspect him further. It did, I wasn't really sure what it was, but when I noticed it I had already gone to sleep.

While the grammar isn't the best, I can't fault you for that because English is a second language to you.  This post seems exactly like something that a very honest townie would say, and if you were a beginner scum I don't think you would have answered that.  I could be underestimating you, but you're off the hook for now.

MastahCheese: Why have you been so aggressive in attacking Solymr?
TDS: You have been somewhat active at the beginning, but have yet to cast your vote.  Why?
NQT: While I understand the idea behind lynching Tiruin, I don't think that she is scum for a couple of reasons:
1. While she has been on a little bit recently, she has been missing a lot of time due to no fault of her own.
2. Tiruin, while not posting anything particularly towny-esque, hasn't posted anything that I would consider a scumtell either.  If there is something I missed with a cursory examination, could you link to it?

[4maskwolf]

Everyone: If you get on in the next two hours, what are your end of the day reads on everyone.

Also, Extend, I need more time to deliberate.

[TheDarkStar]

TDS: You have been somewhat active at the beginning, but have yet to cast your vote.  Why?

Two reasons: I haven't been able to post until now, and also people just don't seem as scummy as certain others think. For example, Solymr just seems new; the mistakes he makes are from not knowing how play town well, not from being scum. IG seems to have little in the way of self-preservation, which matches town play much more than scum play.

[4maskwolf]

You missed my general question.  Eleven minutes after it was posted.

[TheDarkStar]

You missed my general question.  Eleven minutes after it was posted.

Oops, sorry.

My list:
4maskwolf: He's active and tries to get discussion going. Town lean, but this is not certain.
IG: I'm not sure; very slight town lean.
Mastahcheese: Slight scum lean for the way he's going after Solymr. There's a reason there, but he's taking it as a worse scumtell than it should be.
NQT: Null read. He hasn't said much, and the things he's said don't give me much of a read.
Caz: Slight scum/neutral read due to lurking.
SBC: Slight scum/neutral lean due to even more lurking than Caz.
DP109: Scum lean from his posts combined with how new he is. Of course, he has a neutral lean, too, since he has said that he wants to stay out of the way.
Solymr: Slight scum lean, but I think he's mostly just an inexperienced player.
Tiruin: Null read due to excused inactivity.
MOWE: Slight scum/neutral read due to lurking.
+!!scientist!!+- Slight scum/neutral read due to lurking.
No lynch: Not actually a player.

All the "Slight scum/neutral read due to lurking" people are just the ones that haven't really said anything in the last several pages. They are probably more likely neutral than scum, though, because the scum want mislynches while the neutrals have much more specific targets.

[4maskwolf]

You missed my general question.  Eleven minutes after it was posted.

Oops, sorry.

My list:
4maskwolf: He's active and tries to get discussion going. Town lean, but this is not certain.
IG: I'm not sure; very slight town lean.
Mastahcheese: Slight scum lean for the way he's going after Solymr. There's a reason there, but he's taking it as a worse scumtell than it should be.
NQT: Null read. He hasn't said much, and the things he's said don't give me much of a read.
Caz: Slight scum/neutral read due to lurking.
SBC: Slight scum/neutral lean due to even more lurking than Caz.
DP109: Scum lean from his posts combined with how new he is. Of course, he has a neutral lean, too, since he has said that he wants to stay out of the way.
Solymr: Slight scum lean, but I think he's mostly just an inexperienced player.
Tiruin: Null read due to excused inactivity.
MOWE: Slight scum/neutral read due to lurking.
+!!scientist!!+- Slight scum/neutral read due to lurking.
No lynch: Not actually a player.

All the "Slight scum/neutral read due to lurking" people are just the ones that haven't really said anything in the last several pages. They are probably more likely neutral than scum, though, because the scum want mislynches while the neutrals have much more specific targets.

Interesting.  I suppose I'll post mine:
TDS: neutral read: doesn't start many discussions, but isn't lurking and hasn't done anything scummy.  Answers all questions with enough information.
IG: A day ago, I would have said strong scum, but only slight scum lean due to his shorten vote.  Ugly?
Mastah:Neutral: is pressing Solymr hard without a strong enough case, but at least he's active
NQT: Slight town because of the way he's been trying to move things along, but not particularly active unless prompted either.  Could be third party?
Caz: Slight scum, lurking
SBC: Null, has hardly said anything
DP109: Scum lean, but not conclusive.  The Bad trying to avoid notice?
Solymr: Slight scum for reasons stated
Tiruin: Null
MOWE: Slight scum read due to obvious lurking: has been posting on other parts of this forum
Flaming Scientist: Slight scum, lurking
No lynch: Has not said anything this game, requesting a prod to be sent out.

[Persus13]

4maskwolf-
Imperial Guardsman- Solymr, MOWE
Mastahcheese-
TheDarkStar-
notquitethere-
Caz-
Superblackcat-
Darkpaladin109- Caz
Solymr- Mastahcheese
Tiruin- notquitethere
MyOwnWorstEnemy-
+!!scientist!!+-
No Lynch-

Not Voting- TDS, SBC, Darkpaladin109, Tiruin, +!!scientist!!+, 4maskwolf, Imperial Guardsman

2 votes to Extend
1 votes to Shorten

The debate raged long that day, and grew very heated over the question of whether or not to kill Imperial Guardsman. When the Union officer came back, they had decided. Imperial Guardsman would be the one to die. A squad of Union soldiers took him away, and gunshots could be heard.

Then the Union Officer came back. "We found this in his tent," the officer stated, throwing a Confederate uniform on the ground. "Looks like you found yourselves one of our saboteurs. Guards! Take these men to their tents."

Imperial Guardsman has been lynched! He was a Confederate Soldier.

Night has fallen. If you have a Night action, send it in soon.

[Persus13]

Late in the night came the sound of gunshots, and running men. That morning the officer marched you onto the parade ground. Lying their was the body of TheDarkStar.

"It seems that someone decided that this man should be killed off tonight. I have inspected his belongings, and it appears he was a simple Union Soldier. God rest his soul."

After making the remaining ten of you dig a grave for TheDarkStar, the Union Officer said "which one of you will die today?"

D2 has begun and will end Friday, February 28 at 11:00 PM EST.

[4maskwolf]

Late in the night came the sound of gunshots, and running men. That morning the officer marched you onto the parade ground. Lying their was the body of TheDarkStar.

"It seems that someone decided that this man should be killed off tonight. I have inspected his belongings, and it appears he was a simple Union Soldier. God rest his soul."

After making the remaining 9 of you dig a grave for TheDarkStar, the Union Officer said "which one of you will die today?"

D1 has begun and will end Friday, February 28 at 11:00 PM EST.

Wait... 12-1-1 is 10... Is that a math mistake?