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[Sheb]

Indeed, it is entirely possible that Crimeans really wants to join Russia. If so, why not. The fact is that we simply don't know, thanks to Russian intervention.

[MonkeyHead]

If the Russians came anywhere close to where they were in the 1990s the whole thing would come down like a house of cards.

Which may very well happen, if Russia ends up out in the cold regarding oil/gas.

[Knit tie]

Regarding Crimea, I say it's possible that after the maidan, the people who didn't want to join Russia freaked out due to propaganda or plain misunderstanding, thought that the guys in charge are faschists and chose Russia as the lesser oh two evils.

[GlyphGryph]

On the second point, about Crimea. Wat? You thought Crimea didn't want to join Russia before the shit messed up? There just was no way of doing so. When the central rule disappeared, thy used their chance.

Comrade P, someone posted polls from mid-2013 a bit earlier that showed only a minority supported joining Russia. (Although a large one).

You see, I cannot resist the fact, but my personal opinion stands. I think they were just not that serious about their separatism (pan-nationalism?) intentions and were more modest in their claims. Nevertheless, things are changing as the time passes, right?

It's pretty clear Russia did not want to take the gamble that you were right, so there's no way to be sure. It's perfectly possible that the Maidan thing ousting Yakunacrook would have made the general population fearful enough of Ukraine's future to support Russian reunion. We don't know, and we honestly can't know. Times haven't exactly been great for Crimea in particular or even Ukraine in general.

What's obvious is that Russia did not want to take that chance.

Generally, though, "secession of passion" is a remarkably bad idea, and the whole "rushed through referendum without the option of maintaining the status quo and under the control of armed soldiers who can see what you're voting" is pretty much guaranteed to produce an outcome that is very far from "the will of the people".

[smjjames]

If the Russians came anywhere close to where they were in the 1990s the whole thing would come down like a house of cards.

Which may very well happen, if Russia ends up out in the cold regarding oil/gas.

Don't they have plenty of oil in siberia? Of course though, that means nothing if they can't sell it.

Embargoing Russian oil will also jack up oil prices for EVERYBODY, which nobody really wants. Unless the Middle East and other places make up for it by increasing whatever production they can squeeze out of what's left in the ground.

[kaian-a-coel]

I am all for people self determination, but that "referendum" was so faked it hurts. I would seriously laugh at the face of anyone bold-facingly telling me the contrary. I mean, 97% yes? Only one year after a poll which gave a 20% pro-joining-russia minority? And a russian invasion? With international observers not allowed? And rumors/proofs of irregularities all over the internet? Come on!

Most legit important votes are on the edge, nearly 50-50. Only once I saw a presidential election ending with a 82% vote in favor of the winner. It was in 2002 and through massive abstension the far-right candidate made it to the second turn instead of the leftist. Being faced with a choice of "moderate republican equivalent or massively racist far-righter?", the country understandably choose the moderate.

The crimean referendum was massively rigged, there's no "will of the people" in it. That's why the West denounce it.

[Owlbread]

Anyway, it's not because the UK and USA have done it earlier that it's behavior that should be tolerated, or worse, promoted.

My thoughts exactly.

[Mictlantecuhtli]

If the Russians came anywhere close to where they were in the 1990s the whole thing would come down like a house of cards.

Which may very well will happen, if Russia ends up out in the cold regarding oil/gas.

It already has begun. Capital flight is expected to reach 130 billion dollars this year alone, before sanctions are taken into account, 200 billion afterward. The Russian central bank is hemmoraging money to prop up the useless rouble. The oligarchs are moving their money to non-Russian assets because the Russian economy is a house of sticks.

[Guardian G.I.]

I actually don't really mind Trans-Dniestra. That's less like an invasion and more like Russia diplo-annexing a vassal.

Transdnestria secured its independence from Moldova in 1992 thanks to Russian 14th Guards Army joining the war on the side of Transdnestrian forces.. Some of you may find their independence sentiment to be caused by those bloodthirsty Russian imperialists, like in Crimea.

If, however, that economic and social stability vanishes as a result of an economic collapse induced by Western sanctions, there is no reason for Russians to support Putin or United Russia. If the Russians came anywhere close to where they were in the 1990s the whole thing would come down like a house of cards.

If Putin's government falls, no one can guarantee that pro-Western liberals will take charge of the country. In fact, it may result in more radical politicians being voted into office or seizing power. None of Russian opposition leaders enjoy any significant popular support outside of Moscow.

Damn it, guys, why are you writing so fast?

[Sheb]

Actually, the OPEC countries still have plenty of spare capacity left. Between Iraq's oil getting on line and Libya's slowly getting its industry back in shape, we have plenty of oil on the market, only OPEC's restraints is keeping the price high.

Also, I had to share this website: Putin's Gay DressUp. Yeah I know I've posted messages about avoiing that kind of stupid stuff, but that one is too fun to pass. :p

Guardian: Transdniestra has been de facto independent for 20 years. I guess at some points even a  Russia-hating baby-eating westerners such as myself will get on with it.

[Owlbread]

If the Russian government had actually tried to "protect the ethnic Russians in Crimea" through sanctions or something similar on Ukraine or diplomatic pressure or something, after a few years when it all stabilised maybe the number of people who voted Yes in the referendum would be back to their normal levels.

The problem is that this referendum was held in a whirlwind of Nationalist fervour, passion and in the aftermath of a revolution and violence in the streets of Kiev where a pro-Russian government was overthrown by people the average Russo-Crimean wouldn't give the time of day.

To put it in perspective if Margaret Thatcher won another general election tomorrow in the UK(suspend your disbelief, even though she's dead) then there would probably be a 60-70% Yes vote in the independence referendum in September.

[palsch]

Got a few issues I'm wondering about here.

There is a presidential election scheduled for 25 May, but what is going to happen with Parliamentary elections?

My understanding is that, at least in the last elections, Ukraine uses a mixed voting system, with half the representatives being elected on a majority constituency basis and half appointed from party lists on a proportional basis.

It looks like ~12 seats (going from bad maps, looks like somewhere between 10 and 13) have just attempted to secede.

Ukraine can't recognise this. There is no legal basis to suggest that the secession is legitimate. At the same time, any constitutional or other major action by this provisional government is going to be questionable and weaken their (correct) arguments about what's going on in Crimea being illegal.

That means, in my eyes, that they have to, somehow, hold elections that include Crimea. That looks flatly impossible. But I'm not clear what the clean solution to this is. They can't exclude Crimea while holding legitimate elections.



As far the secession, if I were a Crimean secessionist who wanted to join Russia, this would be the worst possible method. It's ensured that the region is stuck in a 'disputed' status into the foreseeable future. I can't imagine more than a handful of nations recognising Crimea being part of Russia, and none with internal separatist movements. Hell, China have had to take a very serious stance of pretending the whole thing doesn't exist, given it strikes scarily close to home to some of their own separatist regions. The way the vote was conducted, under the apparent shadow of the Russian military in a rush, means it is unlikely to be considered legitimate, let alone legal.

[Owlbread]

If Putin's government falls, no one can guarantee that pro-Western liberals will take charge of the country. In fact, it may result in more radical politicians being voted into office or seizing power. None of Russian opposition leaders enjoy any significant popular support outside of Moscow.

I am aware of this. That's why I said it would all come down like a house of cards. The "Russian Federation" is the house of cards, not the party itself or the government. Most of the North Caucasus would become independent within a few years (there would be no reason for them to remain pro-Russian anymore) and probably places like Tuva as well if there was a precedent for it.

[smjjames]

If Putin's government falls, no one can guarantee that pro-Western liberals will take charge of the country. In fact, it may result in more radical politicians being voted into office or seizing power. None of Russian opposition leaders enjoy any significant popular support outside of Moscow.

I am aware of this. That's why I said it would all come down like a house of cards. The "Russian Federation" is the house of cards, not the party itself or the government. Most of the North Caucasus would become independent within a few years.

What about the eastern and far eastern portions? Like Siberia and further east? I don't know how well held together that region and east is as far as connection to Russian culture.

Cechenya and Dagestan will definetly sieze the moment and go independent.

It would be just the beginning of the Balkanization of Russia and losing large portions of territory.

Oh yeah, I just realized while typing, there is the issue of any nukes in the breakaway territories.

[Mictlantecuhtli]

Oh yeah, I just realized while typing, there is the issue of any nukes in the breakaway territories.

Maybe the US can sign a non-proliferation treaty with them under terms that we promise to never, ever be hostile in return for their giving up nukes?