Print

Please login or register.
1 Hour 1 Day 1 Week 1 Month Forever
Login with username, password and session length

[mainiac]

By the way I am among the guys who has little trust in NATO. For example: I doubt that Spain will be ready to send it's soldiers in a war vs Russia should it attack Estonia just because Spain has signed some piece of paper.

This is what the tripwire defense is for.  If you want France or Spain or the US to be willing to fight, you just put a few of their soldiers near the border but clearly in friendly territory and give them orders not to provoke.  If a countries soldiers are shot at under those situations, that country is suddenly going to be a hell of a lot more inclined to fight then before.

This is why the US keeps 30k troops in South Korea, a nation with a modern standing army 20 times that size.  It's not like those 30k troops are going to tilt the scales of battle (although they would help coordinate some strategic assests).  But keeping those 30k troops there means that it's impossible for the North Koreans to launch a sudden attack without killing Americans.  If the North Koreans killed Americans launching an attack on the South then it changes the game vis-a-vis American willingness to fight and the value that China sees in North Korea as a buffer state.

It's not like MAD, where you are promising to escalate in retaliation.  It's not about retaliation at all, it's about making sure that the allied country is politically and diplomatically able to fight if it comes to that.

[Ukrainian Ranger]

I was under the impression that the only reason Lukashenko hasn't made his country join Russia yet is that Russia doesn't want Belarus.

Why should Lukashenko give up all his power and become local governor in Russia? I am sure that as long as he is in power no Belarus joining Russia

Forget about the Crimea, or Belarus...

There are one more interesting piece  Russian land to return: Port Arthur


But I know what is absolutely the best target for the next Russian invasion: Israel
a) 1\6 of population are Russian speakers and no official status of Russian
b) It has strategically important location
c) Russian Orthodox Church should liberate Jerusalem in the name of Christ

There are only one "minor" problem. Israeli army will not show "restraint" and "determination to maintain peace"

[Willfor]

But I know what is absolutely the best target for the next Russian invasion: Israel
a) 1\6 of population are Russian speakers and no official status of Russian
b) It has strategically important location
c) Russian Orthodox Church should liberate Jerusalem in the name of Christ

There are only one "minor" problem. Israeli army will not show "restraint" and "determination to maintain peace"

You do not understand how many Christian movements in America view the End Times starting with a Russian invasion of Israel. It's not a small number. Hell, I heard it dozens of times even though I grew up after the Cold War rhetoric died down. If that happens, you're not just going to hear "Israel is our ally" coming from the US. You're going to have a literal Protestant crusade coming in from America.

[Sergarr]

a literal Protestant crusade

21st century, ladies and gentlemen!

[Willfor]

If Europe could put one together despite disparate political lines, self-interested rulers, and the logistical difficulties of massing armies using only turn-of-the-first-millennium tech then gosh-darnit, America can put together a multidenominational (though mostly baptist) crusade today!

... Yeah, no, that ecumenical pea soup would fall apart like ... pea soup.

[Guardian G.I.]

I was under the impression that the only reason Lukashenko hasn't made his country join Russia yet is that Russia doesn't want Belarus.

Lukashenko has been quietly sabotaging all Union State integration efforts since Putin came to power in 2000. I remember endless talks about installing Russian rouble as Belarusian currency and other such proposals that didn't result in anything fruitful. Some Russian nationalists are mad at him for that.
There were very shaky rumours that when Lukashenko signed the Union State treaty with Yeltsin, he planned to take part in the presidential elections of the unified state. The best friend of the 'international community' Yeltsin was incredibly unpopular among the Russian people (he had an approval rating of only 2% in 1999), and Lukashenko was well known in Russia for his leftist economic policies - liberals condemned him, communists and socialists adored him. It would be very likely for Lukashenko to win the presidential elections with a landslide victory and thus take control of both Belarus and Russia. Unfortunately for him (and fortunately for the West) some Putin guy became the president of Russia in 2000.

Guys, I need to say that all predictions of Putin's future actions sounded here and elsewhere are extrapolations, and not clever ones, actually - you just assume that Putin is trying to imitate Hitler, and that if Hitler had done something, than Putin will do it too. I can imagine him sitting in his Kremlin office with a checklist, thinking "Hmm, what should I do next? Jews as scapegoat - check, remilitarization - check,  Sudetenland - check, Poland - not now... uhmhm... oh, I've almost forgot, Austria! *calls Alexander Grigoryevich* "

[Sheb]

Right, but then, this is a game forum. Most of us learned our geopolitics from playing Crusader Kings.

[Guardian G.I.]

National Geographic plans to show Crimea on its maps as being a Russian territory.

[Ukrainian Ranger]

Guardian G.I.
Putin is not Hitler. Russians aren't 1930s Germans but similarities are alarming

I see that modern Russian nation is full of jingoism. Be it random internet troll in social networks, Russian media propagandizing hate and spreading blatant lies or Putin with his revanchist speeches . Everything indicates that Russia will not stop unless stopped by force.

I know Russian, I have relatives and friends in Russia, I have access to Russian media and Russian internet. I have enough data to make conclusions

[XXSockXX]

Guys, I need to say that all predictions of Putin's future actions sounded here and elsewhere are extrapolations, and not clever ones, actually - you just assume that Putin is trying to imitate Hitler, and that if Hitler had done something, than Putin will do it too. I can imagine him sitting in his Kremlin office with a checklist, thinking "Hmm, what should I do next? Jews as scapegoat - check, remilitarization - check,  Sudetenland - check, Poland - not now... uhmhm... oh, I've almost forgot, Austria! *calls Alexander Grigoryevich* "

You are right about this, I don't think Putin is some evil overlord. He is however behaving somewhat unpredictably and takes huge risks. Part of that impression may be my lack of knowledge about Russian internal affairs and contradictory opinions of various experts, journalists and politicians. Still I think he might have achieved what he claims he wants - protecting Russians and preserving order in Ukraine - relatively easy with soft power instead of this military action. Crimea was talking about independence since this started and Putin has made arrangements with other possibly corrupt politicians in Ukraine before. Russia has a lot of economic influence in Ukraine. By not choosing the diplomatic way, he has caused a lot of fear not only in Ukraine, but in the whole of Europe, so all this talk about an upcoming aggression doesn't come out of nowhere.

BTW Gorbatchev (Germany's favourite Russian of all time for obvious reasons), has welcomed the Crimea referendum. I guess this still does not help his popularity in Russia.

[Mictlantecuhtli]

Remember; Russia doesn't invade countries who can actually put up a fight. We won't be seeing any real invasions unless Putin truly has a death wish for his 'democracy'.

[Guardian G.I.]

Remember; Russia doesn't invade countries who can actually put up a fight.

Same thing goes for America. The last time America fought someone who wasn't a small country with a tiny obsolete military was in the 1940s.

[Ukrainian Ranger]

Yeah, Iraq in 1991 had a tiny army

[Sean Mirrsen]

Well, comparatively.... also, armed civilians do not count.

From my position of an idle observer, this kinda reminds me of that one music video, "A complete history of the Soviet Union through the eyes of a humble worker", otherwise known as "Complete History of the Soviet Union, arranged to the music of Tetris". Especially the bit about the future of Russia at the end.

The US gave us crystal meth,
and Yeltzin drank himself to death,
but now that Putin's put the boot in, who'll be in our way?

So we reject free enterprise,
and once again the left will rise!
Prepare our flags to be unfurled,
'cause we're seceding from the world!
We shall regain the Georgian soil!
We shall attain the Arctic oil!
We shall arrange the blocks and toil, forever and a day!

(GAME OVER)

[Ak-Sai]

I'll join discussion a bit.
Ukrainian myself, living in Kherson  (Kherson region is closest to Crimea part of Ukraine). Situation is relatively calm, at least for now (if not counting that Russian troops captured gas dispenser unit somewhere in our region and their overall presence at borders). So... we'll see what will happen next.

I think that they wouldnt stop just on Crimea and would annex Southern-east parts of Ukraine as well, just to make land border with newly annexed Crimea (and, to say, capturing industrial centers like Donetsk, or Odessa which has major port facilities would definetely seems like a tasty piece of territory). They may also press their influence towards Moldova borders, where also some dispute Russian-oriented territories are.  And if that "I'lljust come and take your territories" game would escalate into real war... I hope that it wouldnt, because: a) war is terrible b) Ukrainian army (if alone) cannot match with our (suddenly) agressive neighbour, so it would lead us to same annexation, but burdened with hatred, corpses and destruction.  So... my personal predictions are quite grim. I'll be happy if they would not become real.