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[smjjames]

So apparently the Ottoman Empire Turkey wants Crimea too now

Lol on Turkey invoking that centuries old treaty. Though it's just that author and I don't think Turkey has officially invoked the treaty.

I wonder if Putin is even aware of that treaty. If Turkey goes ahead and invokes that treaty for real, it would make things REALLY complicated. Not sure if Turkey even cares about wanting Crimea anymore, but it's pretty funny that there is this centuries old treaty ready to spring to life in the background of all this.

[smjjames]

@ Ukranian Ranger: Just a thought, would you (and other Ukranians) be happier if Crimea was in Turkish hands rather than Russian? I know ultimately you'd rather keep Crimea, but it's just a hypothetical.

Edit: Sorry for double post, I half expected someone to post in between this one and my previous post.

[XXSockXX]

While Turkey has a lot of interest in Crimea and in the fate of the Crimean Tatars, that article shouldn't be taken seriously. Turkey, as a NATO member, does side with the EU and US when sanctions and diplomatic pressure are concerned.
They have no legal claims through that treaty though, because neither the Ottoman Empire nor the Russian monarchy still exist as legal entities. Imagine what the world would look like if all these centuries old treaties would still matter, that's silly.

[Veylon]

Question: Why hasn't Ukraine rushed into joining NATO now that Russia's grabbed their peninsula?

Granted, NATO won't get the Crimea back for them, but it would pretty much guarantee that they won't lose anything else. It sounds like they are all scared of what further mischief Putin has planned (assuming he's planned anything) and this would be the obvious solution.

What? And now Turkey's wants to fish in troubled waters, too? Oy.

[Ukrainian Ranger]

@ Ukranian Ranger: Just a thought, would you (and other Ukranians) be happier if Crimea was in Turkish hands rather than Russian? I know ultimately you'd rather keep Crimea, but it's just a hypothetical.

Edit: Sorry for double post, I half expected someone to post in between this one and my previous post.

Hypothetically I'd prefer Turkey.
a) +one country at borders to trade with is always good
b) Straight of Kerch would be Turkey-Russian controlled not Russian
c) Turkey may be our future ally should Ukraine ever join NATO.
d) Turkey knows how to make nice resorts, so Crimea would turn in good tourism destination for Ukrainians. Russian Crimea is just unsafe, getting killed as Ukrainian nazi for speaking Ukrainian is not a good attraction for tourists
e) I highly doubt that Turkey would have plans to annex lands south of Crimea sometime later.

Of cause that is hypothetic Turkey will never push for annexation. It is a civilized country

And if you ask me what ideal future of Crimea is - I dream that Crimea will be independent few decades later when Crimean Tatars will restore their numbers. It's their land.

[andrea]

it would be quite silly to invoke a centuries old treaty, especially considering that russia underwent a quite radical revolution in the mean time, voiding any expectation of continuity. that document isn't worth anything, legally. Could be used to fuel internal support for a war, but I don't think that will be done either, since the link was about a random idea a newspaper had, not a statement from government.

If turkey and russia start fighting over crimea, I'll stop reading the news and pick up some history books to follow current events.

[Sheb]

You can't just join NATO like that. They've applied, but you can't join overnight. Plus, NATO don't want to take on member that are being invaded.

[Ukrainian Ranger]

I think some kind of NATO-Ukraine treaty may be a substitution to full membership

[Sheb]

But does NATO wants to guarantee Ukraine?

[Mephansteras]

Like most things political, it all depends on what the NATO members (especially the US) want to have happen. If they think that their interests are best served by having the Ukraine rushed in as a member, it would happen.

Not that I expect this to be the case, mind you, just saying that the usual formalities would be swept away given enough political will.

[burningpet]

Spoilered it since its off topic..

Spoiler (click to show/hide)

Well, prices might have changed since then but when i was in the army, my sort of APC (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Puma_armored_engineering_vehicle) without gear cost ~20M USD (and that's cheap considering the vehicle is a modified one and not a brand new model), so that would have to be a really successful kickstarter.

When my friend lost all of his gear, he was trialed for ~7M USD. he was found guilty and had to pay a fine of ~100 USD.

Sorry, but $20 millions for an engineering vehicle based looks very doubtful

With Merkava IV tanks costing something like $6 millions per piece I highly doubt that conversation of an old tank into an engineering vehicle can cost three times more

And I want to hear more about $7 millions worth personal gear. That is some very high-tech stuff


But procurement of new equipment is not a small scale project.

Small scale projects could include stuff like: Repairing all APCs in some unit. Building new barracks for some soldiers. Procuring new small arms for some unit. Paying for the runninmg cost of some small-scale exercises
Stuff like that can be achieved with small relatively small budgets

Yeah, i probably mixed USD with NIS. could be also that they bloat the value to scare young sergeants from losing their vehicles

My friend did have a 7m trial, i saw the papers, again, i probably confused USD and NIS.

About equipment:
Electric dog bone - a device that project a magnetic field to detonate mines that trigger on the magnetic resonance of the vehicle.
Great Viper - Basically a cart that shoots a long explosive chain of c4 charges to clear paths
CARPET - A device remotely controlled which shoots air-fuel rockets which cause blast on the ground to trigger weight based land mines (carpet is not carried if the puma carry the great viper)
RAFAEL - A MAG that is controlled remotely.
ROLLER - sort of chain wheels that travel before the PUMA and detonate mines

Some carry Bridges, some carry bulldozer blades.

There's also all the equipment an infantry squad needs, explosives, land mines, and all sort of other stuff needed for engineering which i cant begin to translate.. but i guess its pretty universal stuff

We were also trained and in charge of a VERY expensive device which is confidential (it was so when i trained and i couldn't see a single reference to it anywhere so i guess it remain so), yet also, in my opinion, totally useless in modern, "low intensity", combat. extreme waste of money.

[Sheb]

How did your friend loose that kind of equipment? A cart shooting rockets ain't exactly the kind of stuff you leave behind sofa cushions.

[GrizzlyAdamz]

From NATO's site:

Spoiler (click to show/hide)

NATO has an open door policy with regard to enlargement. Any European country in a position to further the principles of the Washington Treaty and contribute to security in the Euro-Atlantic area can become a member of the Alliance at the invitation of the North Atlantic Council.

Countries aspiring for NATO membership are also expected to meet certain political, economic and military goals in order to ensure that they will become contributors to Alliance security as well as beneficiaries of it.

NATO’s Membership Action Plan (MAP) is designed to assist aspirant partner countries in their preparations by providing a framework which enables NATO to channel assistance and practical support to them on all aspects of NATO membership.

NATO’s “open door policy” is based on Article 10 of its founding treaty. Any decision to invite a country to join the Alliance is taken by the North Atlantic Council, NATO’s principal decision-making body, on the basis of consensus among all Allies. No third country has a say in such deliberations.

From wiki on the NAC:

Spoiler (click to show/hide)

The meetings of the NAC are chaired by the Secretary General and, when decisions have to be made, action is agreed upon on the basis of unanimity and common accord. There is no voting or decision by majority.

About the membership action plan:

Spoiler (click to show/hide)

The Membership Action Plan (MAP) mechanism is the stage in the procedure for nations wishing to join where their formal applications are reviewed by the current members. The mechanism was approved in the 1999 Washington summit. A country's participation in MAP entails the annual presentation of reports concerning its progress on five different measures:[18]

    Willingness to settle international, ethnic or external territorial disputes by peaceful means, commitment to the rule of law and human rights, and democratic control of armed forces
    Ability to contribute to the organization's defence and missions
    Devotion of sufficient resources to armed forces to be able to meet the commitments of membership
    Security of sensitive information, and safeguards ensuring it
    Compatibility of domestic legislation with NATO cooperation

Basically, it seems to be a unanimous-decision kind of thing. And also assimilation, (to a degree).

[scrdest]

it would be quite silly to invoke a centuries old treaty, especially considering that russia underwent a quite radical revolution in the mean time, voiding any expectation of continuity. that document isn't worth anything, legally. Could be used to fuel internal support for a war, but I don't think that will be done either, since the link was about a random idea a newspaper had, not a statement from government.

If turkey and russia start fighting over crimea, I'll stop reading the news and pick up some history books to follow current events.

Half a league! Half a league! Half a league onwards...

[olemars]

I doubt there will be any serious promises about NATO accession before the elections in May (would have hoped the EU would have the sense to hold off on any significant treaties until then too). It all depends on whether Ukrainians manage to clean up their political act a bit or at least prevent it from getting worse, if those far right loons make any gains things could get toxic. I worry that Svoboda and Right Sector is going to use any external threat and internal instability to rally more support, and Putin knows that and'll probably do what he can to help.

There are some worrying parallells with Egypt, the Muslim Brotherhood and the military junta in the shadows. If you look at the timeline it's not hard to imagine that the generals didn't mind letting the MB fuck things up for a while so people would want the military back in power.