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[Toady One]

(I removed something that had gotten out of hand.  I'm going to let it slide punishment-wise since I know things are tense, but I'm not going to tolerate a repeat, so please keep it under control.)

[Comrade P.]

I must say Comrade P., I've not seen any report of mass desertions outside Russian medias (except for some individual soldiers being pressured into surrendering by large Russian contingent). Since several of those report (including the one about the Frigate) turned out to be false, I'm not inclined to believe them at all.

Okay, I understand  that I just got pumped up with our propaganda. I do not know what is really going on in Crimea right now. I'm sorry if I got too annoying and abusive with my words and opinions. But I sincerely believe that the situation is going to become stable, for Russia has no other goals in Ukraine. Even Crimea wasn't a goal, but since they asked themselves for help. Or even if they didn't, it seems that no further escalation comes now from Russia. In reions of eastern Ukraine, Russians are truly minorities, and in the case of referendum (which is much less likely than in Crimea, I think) no chance the seceding proposals get enough votes.

[BlindKitty]

Well, OK, I'll keep things (mostly) to myself from now on. Just wanted to say that if there are two parties in conflict, and only one is ready to go to war, this party will always win the confrontation, no matter what. Keep that in mind, people from the West. Because next time Poland may not be enough of a buffer.

[Comrade P.]

Well, OK, I'll keep things (mostly) to myself from now on. Just wanted to say that if there are two parties in conflict, and only one is ready to go to war, this party will always win the confrontation, no matter what. Keep that in mind, people from the West. Because next time Poland may not be enough of a buffer.

Russian troops aren't mobilized. They are not concentrated around EU borders even. You call that ready to war?

[Dzedajus]

Well, OK, I'll keep things (mostly) to myself from now on. Just wanted to say that if there are two parties in conflict, and only one is ready to go to war, this party will always win the confrontation, no matter what. Keep that in mind, people from the West. Because next time Poland may not be enough of a buffer.

Russian troops aren't mobilized. They are not concentrated around EU borders even. You call that ready to war?

If Russian government isn't that fucking stupid yet they won't repeat same mistake as in ww2. 

[smjjames]

Well, OK, I'll keep things (mostly) to myself from now on. Just wanted to say that if there are two parties in conflict, and only one is ready to go to war, this party will always win the confrontation, no matter what. Keep that in mind, people from the West. Because next time Poland may not be enough of a buffer.

Russian troops aren't mobilized. They are not concentrated around EU borders even. You call that ready to war?

If Russian government isn't that fucking stupid yet they won't repeat same mistake as in ww2. 

Putin is smart enough to know that it would be suicide to invade Estonia and Lithuania, both NATO members.  The most he could do is to rattle them by doing military exersizes near their borders, but he hasn't shown any interest in doing so.

[Mephansteras]

He might very well be content with Crimea, at least for now. As a success it gives him a big reputation boost at home, and increases Russia's standing internationally from a Power Projection standpoint. Assuming things don't spiral out of control on their own, I could see him focusing on just solidifying that victory for now.

[Dzedajus]

Putin is smart enough to know that it would be suicide to invade Estonia and Lithuania, both NATO members.  The most he could do is to rattle them by doing military exersizes near their borders, but he hasn't shown any interest in doing so.

EU wouldn't do anything if he did invade my country, probably only Poland would save us. Some people are seriously afraid of getting invaded for the 5th or so times already. Also I think Russia did some military exercises in Baltic sea already or still doing.

[Sheb]

We would have to. Legally speaking.

Anyway, I really feel like we should work on a EU army and better defense integration. Not only would that save tons on money, but it would make it easier to reassure the Baltic people. Also, I think we should station a "tripwire" of various NATO troops there.

[Dutchling]

So apparently the Ottoman Empire Turkey wants Crimea too now

[GlyphGryph]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AqHeZUS9_EY

We'll show those fascists and their Judeo Masonic masters their place!

IS it just me, or are some of the pro-Russian groups a bit... fuzzy... on who exactly their enemy is?

Anyway, it's pretty interesting to actually here direct quotes from the pro-russian groups.

[Ukrainian Ranger]

So apparently the Ottoman Empire Turkey wants Crimea too now

Yeah, I heard about that treaty.

It would be amusing if Crimean Tatar defense units suddenly appear armed with this this and this
All that can be purchased in Ukrainian general stores.

[GrizzlyAdamz]

Umm, guys, hold on to your butts, cause things are about to get ugly. I've heard reports that the Ukrainian Minister of Defense just authorized the use of leathal force for the troops in Crimea.

Just how much of Ukraine's military capital is in Crimea?
And any word on where those extra 20k russian troops were deployed?

If it's a significant chunk, (more than 5-10%), I won't be surprised to hear about a breakout attempt in the next few days. Perhaps before the 21st, in spite of their agreement, (wouldn't count on Russia's word if I were them..). It really depends on how much of their men & equipment could feasibly escape, (and if the alternative loss of equipment is unbearable).



On the NATO, I let my fingers run about that a few score pages back. Rather than repeat it, here's where that started.

[GlyphGryph]

Someone tell me this isn't real, and that Svobada is NOT this stupid.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1c6eYId4fPE

I'm beginning to think things are honestly going to get a lot worse. Protests in kiev appear to be starting back up as well?

[Ukrainian Ranger]

BTW, Turkey is very important player in the crisis
1) It has a Crimean Tatar minority
2) It's army is stronger than Russian (minus nuclear weapons)
3) It has economic interests in the region
4) Noticeable part of Russian export goes through Bosporus
5) Erdogan needs to fix his own popularity

_____

Someone tell me this isn't real, and that Svobada is NOT this stupid.

Unfortunately it is true... I am used for stupid moves but that one.... It is like working for Russian propaganda