Print

Please login or register.
1 Hour 1 Day 1 Week 1 Month Forever
Login with username, password and session length

[GlyphGryph]

http://www.latimes.com/world/worldnow/la-fg-wn-ukraine-crimea-russia-europe-20140311,0,1848805.story#axzz2vhhvq2c3

If true, Russia's point men have passed legislation that forbids those with "nationalist" affiliation from participating in the referendum.

http://www.rferl.org/content/ukrainian-tv-channels-off-the-air/25293466.html
Also, Ukranian TV will not be allowed until afterwards, for "moral" reasons.

[Knit tie]

Still, the protests were peaceful, as opposed to a revolution that could've happened. You remember how many people died when the Russian Empire had a revolution?

[Sheb]

What is your point? That it could have been worse?

[XXSockXX]

Still, the protests were peaceful, as opposed to a revolution that could've happened. You remember how many people died when the Russian Empire had a revolution?

Of course it could have been worse. But it may still become a lot worse, depending on what happens next.

On the contrary, what is happening in Crimea, IS peaceful, as even during sieges of pro-Ukrainian military bases by pro-Russian military forces no one has died yet.

It is currently bloodless and relatively peaceful. However it is very short of causing a lot of violence as a consequence. There are Russian troops in another sovereign country. There is a risk of Ukrainian and Russian troops clashing. It has caused fear of invasion in Ukraine (and other neighbouring countries). This pressure might escalate the situation in Ukraine into a civil war. In Crimea itself, there might be violence between ethnic groups, not sparked by Russian troops, but nationalists on both sides. So overall this is a very dangerous situation, there are many ways this could become a huge desaster quickly.

And whatever the outcome will be, I'm sure it will change the geopolitical climate for at least a decade.

[Knit tie]

I really wonder in what way the political climate will change, though, should Crimea become a puppet state? Aside from increased paranoia, of course.

[10ebbor10]

Well, internationally it might be a big blow to the Non Proliferation treaty. Ukraine got several guarantees when it gave up it's Soviet era bombs, amongst which a guarantee of independence signed by Russia, and some other states. An annexation could be reacted as a breach, and might make those nations that have nuclear weaponry (North Korea, Pakistan) a bit more reluctant in giving them up.

[XXSockXX]

Well, just a little bit of speculation, if we assume Crimea joins the Russian Federation and then it's over and it doesn't escalate in any other way:
Russia would then have isolated itself diplomatically, it has lost any sort of trust from the West and from it's neighbours (especially Ukraine, but possibly even some current allies), and that will last for some time. Ukraine and other countries will seek closer relations with West, and try to join NATO, maybe the EU.
Europe is already looking for other sources of gas and oil, Russia will definitely lose out on that business long-term wise. There may be sanctions, and some of them may stay in place for quite a while.
In the worst case we have another Cold War. NATO troops stationed at Russia's borders, rocket defense systems in Europe.
Also increased distrust will lead to Russia and the West cooperating even less, which will make diplomatic solutions to a lot of crisis or tension situations way more difficult (like Syria and Iran).
Additionally, as has been pointed out before, nuclear non-proliferation has become far more unlikely. (Though I personally didn't believe in it anyway.)
-----------------------------------------
Since we talked about how there will be no international observers at the referendum, here's a bizarre piece of information (link in German):
Moscow has invited some European right-wing populist parties as observers, Front National, FPÖ, Lega Nord and Vlaams Belang. FN and FPÖ dislike the EU, the other two are separatists, that's why they support Russia in this. Clearly an attempt to get at least some international recognition, probably not a successful one.

[Ukrainian Ranger]

Ivze, what do you think?

Yet 100 dead people are too much to call the situation peaceful.
On the contrary, what is happening in Crimea, IS peaceful, as even during sieges of pro-Ukrainian military bases by pro-Russian military forces no one has died yet.

Not all of that 100 people were lucky enough to get a quick death from a bullet. Some were beaten to death. Some where burned alive in Trade Unions house Some were kidnapped and tortured to death... And there are 300+ missing


As for peaceful situation in Crimea... Maydan was peaceful for a long time. If it wasn't that peaceful we could have much less deaths... Same here. Sooner or later Russians will start a bloodbath, failure to oppose them will do nothing good

[Sergarr]

Ivze, what do you think?

Yet 100 dead people are too much to call the situation peaceful.
On the contrary, what is happening in Crimea, IS peaceful, as even during sieges of pro-Ukrainian military bases by pro-Russian military forces no one has died yet.

Not all of that 100 people were lucky enough to get a quick death from a bullet. Some were beaten to death. Some where burned alive in Trade Unions house Some were kidnapped and tortured to death... And there are 300+ missing


As for peaceful situation in Crimea... Maydan was peaceful for a long time. If it wasn't that peaceful we could have much less deaths... Same here. Sooner or later Russians will start a bloodbath, failure to oppose them will do nothing good

That's why Russians think West is ought to get them.

[miljan]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fWkfpGCAAuw

Some interesting things. Probably not all correct, but still

[Ukrainian Ranger]

The most likely scenario that at March 17, just after the "referendum" Russia will announce that Ukrainian units in Crimea are unlawfully stationed in Russian territory and demand their surrender. If this will be rejected, Ukrainian forces will be attacked... If this will be accepted Russia will get intact bases and weapons

[scrdest]

The most likely scenario that at March 17, just after the "referendum" Russia will announce that Ukrainian units in Crimea are unlawfully stationed in Russian territory and demand their surrender. If this will be rejected, Ukrainian forces will be attacked... If this will be accepted Russia will get intact bases and weapons

Weeeell, they could always Blow Shit Up, don't they?

[Ukrainian Ranger]

Heh, then this will be treated as damaging Russian property... But yep, IMO, the best course of action is to evacuate our forces and loyal citizens NOW. Even if it is very hard to do. And blow up anything military related that can't be evacuated. If the state can't protect it's citizens it should at least help them evacuate

[Baffler]

If they are going to leave now would be the time, before they become "unwelcome foreign troops trespassing on their sovereign territory and military bases." Thereby bringing their whole game of double-talk full circle.

[GlyphGryph]

That's why Russians think West is ought to get them.

I'm not sure what you mean by this.