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[mainiac]

IIRC, China's starting to run out of homegrown fossil fuels, fast. The Russians could probably make up for European consumption by selling to the Chinese.

Not without spending years and tens of billions of dollars building trans-continental pipelines.  Maybe they want to do that long term but it won't protect them from a recession this decade.

Ocean transport isn't even an option.  Going from the Black Sea to China is way farther then going from US ports to China.

Its a message.  "We ain't got much, but we got your back."  and another interpretation which is hilarious:    "We are serious guys, back off."

More like "fuck it guys, I got this."

[Frumple]

Perhaps (using the magic of WAG conjecture and lack of sleep), they intend the recession to provide labor for the pipelines? Seems to me major economic downturn is a fairly decent time for major government project. Plenty of cheap (desperate) domestic labor. Double-bonus if economic loss leads to crime uptake -- penal slavery possibly even cheaper! Nothing could go wrong, amiright?

[mainiac]

Nothing could go wrong, amiright?

Sounds legit.

[Sheb]

Yeah, Russia is trying to get pipelines to China, but they won't be ready for years. I don't have the link right now, but during a FB discussion, someone pointed out that while they finally got a deal for a pipeline, it'll only transport a couple percents of the exports to Europe starting in 2018. We've got massive infrastructure here, built over decades, it won't be easy to re-route that.

In the meantime, we should see significant LPG exporting capability in the US coming online over the next 5 years. So I think it'll be easier for Europe to diversify away from Russia than the other way around.

[Guardian G.I.]

Not sure if it's been posted here at all, but this was rather funny:

Spoiler (click to show/hide)

Spoiler (click to show/hide)

[Helgoland]

A soldier, stomping on Ukraine with his boots, headed towards Turkey? Unfortunate implications

The Goblin apparently wants to keep all Ukrainian vessels that are currently docked in Crimean ports; the harbors' exits have already been blockaded. (Link in German)

[Sheb]

I really hope they botch the referendum to the point where it's totally useless. Like 95% of yes vote or something.

[scrdest]

I really hope they botch the referendum to the point where it's totally useless. Like 95% of yes vote or something.

125% approval. Not like it would be surprising in Russia.

[Guardian G.I.]

I really hope they botch the referendum to the point where it's totally useless. Like 95% of yes vote or something.

The Western countries won't recognize it no matter how high the result will be, 51%, 68%, 95% or 413%.
They don't seem to be willing to recognize independence referendums in troubled regions that they want to take in their sphere of influence, unless the referendum and the independence movement in particular are organized and backed by them (e.g. Kosovo).

[Mictlantecuhtli]

They don't seem to be willing to recognize independence referendums in troubled regions that they want to take in their sphere of influence, unless the referendum and the independence movement in particular are organized and backed by them (e.g. Kosovo).

I agree with what you're saying about the Kremlin.

[Helgoland]

Freedom!

[Sheb]

Actually it would. In Russia proper, the elections aren't rigged, it's just that all the main medias favors Putin and the opposition is purposefully splits. Plus, Putin IS popular and would probably win even in a totally fair environment.

However, in the semi-independent republics like Chechnya, the local bosses sometime gets a bit to eager to please their overlord and do some pretty stupid-looking ballot-stuffing.

As for the referendum, it's a joke to run one in the current context. The West would probably get behind a deal that would offer a withdrawal of Russians troops in exchange for a internationally-observed referendum in May for example.

[Sergarr]

Freedom!

What an informative post. I've learned a lot of new things from it and it opened my eyes on the current global problems of humanity as a whole. Truly I am enlightened now, reveling in my newfound knowledge of Truth™ and running in majestic circles from overbearing joy.

[Sheb]

Freedom!

What an informative post. I've learned a lot of new things from it and it opened my eyes on the current global problems of humanity as a whole. Truly I am enlightened now, reveling in my newfound knowledge of Truth™ and running in majestic circles from overbearing joy.

What an informative post. I've learned a lot of new things from it and it opened my eyes on the current global problems of humanity as a whole. Truly I am enlightened now, reveling in my newfound knowledge of Truth™ and running in majestic circles from overbearing joy.

[XXSockXX]

Apparently the Crimean government has declared Crimea independent (link in German). That is legally necessary for joining Russia and for the referendum to happen in the first place, because regions can not have referendums by themselves according to the Ukrainian constitution.

The Western countries won't recognize it no matter how high the result will be, 51%, 68%, 95% or 413%.
They don't seem to be willing to recognize independence referendums in troubled regions that they want to take in their sphere of influence, unless the referendum and the independence movement in particular are organized and backed by them (e.g. Kosovo).

That is correct, they have pretty much said so already, on the grounds that it is illegal/unconstitutional and basically blackmail because of the Russian army presence.
I agree that Kosovo may have been an unfortunate precedent, I understand your impression of the situation in that regard, even if the situation there was quite different from what is happening in Crimea now, with the ethnic strife in Yugoslavia.