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[XXSockXX]

As for Putin, I kinda understand his urge to build an Eurasian Union. Integration with the West is impossible, both due to Russia's self-esteem (After all, joining the EU means putting you on the same level as Luxemburg, and even being in the West by and large mean subordinating yourself to the US.) and the fact the Russians were traumatized by the shock therapy of the 1990's and are dubious of the west. And in today's globalized world, you can't make it on your own.

I understand that too, but I think the world is so globalized that a potential EAU and the EU would need each other to cooperate economically and strategically. That's of course more unrealistic than ever with aggressive posturing like that.

Not that I approve, especially since the consequences of this conflict could be rather devastating, but none of this seems crazy at all. Risky, yes, but not crazy.

Yeah, I don't think Putin is crazy at all. He seems like a very intelligent and calculating guy. The whole strategy to hand out passports to create citizens who need protection has been tested before and is now applied on a larger scale. Incredibly risky it is, but it might work.

[Ukrainian Ranger]

Yeah, I don't think Putin is crazy at all. He seems like a very intelligent and calculating guy.

Maniacs can be smart

[10ebbor10]

Yeah, I don't think Putin is crazy at all. He seems like a very intelligent and calculating guy.

Maniacs can be smart

Actually, persons with maniacal tendencies are very likely to end up in control of major corporations, governments and other important stuff.

[scrdest]

Yeah, I don't think Putin is crazy at all. He seems like a very intelligent and calculating guy.

Maniacs can be smart

Actually, persons with maniacal tendencies are very likely to end up in control of major corporations, governments and other important stuff.

I think you're thinking of APD (AKA sociopathy). Mania attacks are very different.

[SalmonGod]

Yeah, I don't think Putin is crazy at all. He seems like a very intelligent and calculating guy.

Maniacs can be smart

Actually, persons with maniacal tendencies are very likely to end up in control of major corporations, governments and other important stuff.

Intelligence and Wisdom may be often related, but are very different things.

[Sheb]

I've seen this posted a lot on my FB feed.

Spoiler (click to show/hide)

Official Information from Kiev, Circulated in Brussels Today:

Information regarding the deployment of the military equipment by the Russian Federation near to the State Border of Ukraine

According to the information of The State Border Guard Service of Ukraine the Russian Federation masses military equipment on its territory in immediate proximity to the borders of Ukraine near Kharkiv, Luhansk, and Donetsk region.
Near Kharkiv region:
- On railway station Lisnyky, Voronezh region, 9 echelons of military technique (APC (Armoured Personnel Carrier), IFV (Infantry Fighting Vehicle)) disembarked at the military unit 63796 (ordnance depot in Lisky);
- Between Pletnivka and Zhovtneve in direction Bochkove-Leninskoje (at 1,5-2 km from the Ukrainian border inside Russia) there are 5 APCs, 2 “Ural” trucks, and field-kitchen. The Russian Border Guard restricts movement of local citizens in this direction.

Near Donetsk region:
- Russian Federation Border unit “Vesiolo-Voznesenovka” has been put on higher degree of readiness “assembly” (“Orange”);
- On the border check-point “Vesiolo-Voznesenovka – Novoazovsk” movement of transport with Russian registration has been blocked in the direction to Ukraine;

Near Luhansk region:
- Local citizens informed that there is buildup of forces and armored vehicles at the direction Millerovo – Diakovo at 3-4 km from the Ukrainian State border;
- there is buildup of forces and armored vehicles between Luhansk and Donetsk region in 2 km from the Ukrainian State Border.

According to the information of the General Consulate of Ukraine in Rostov-on-Don the governor of Rostov region ordered to deploy camps for Ukrainian refugees.

All these actions confirm the preparation of the Russian Federation to invade to Ukraine through the land border.

According to the information of the Ministry of Internal Affairs of Ukraine there is information regarding preparation of provocation on the territory the Autonomous Republic of Crimea with plans to kill several Russian soldiers in the night from 3 to 4 March under the guise of Ukrainian side.

In this regard the Ukrainian side repeats its call to peaceful settlement and de-escalation of the situation.

[Guardian G.I.]

The BBC is reporting that the Russian Defense Ministry are dismissing the Ukranian cliams of an inpending offensive as "utter nonsense".

Which again raises the question of what the fuck is Russia doing with so many troops in the region?

Trying to prevent Ukrainian security forces from crushing pro-Russian separatists.

Probable course of events favourable for Russia, provided NATO won't decide to recreate the campaign of Lock On: Modern Air Combat in real life:
1. Pro-Russian protesters take control of regional administrations in Crimea and the South East Ukraine
2. They announce a referendum on seceding from Ukraine.
3. The government in Kiev can't do anything about it, because if they use force, Russia will bomb the shit out of them.
4. The referendum will (obviously) result in separatists winning. Crimea and the South East Ukraine secede.
5. USA and EU rage and threaten sanctions, like in 2008, Putin ignores them.
6. Crimea becomes an semi-independent (and of course unrecognised) state under Russian protection, a-la Abkhazia or South Ossetia. South East Ukraine either becomes a separate state (also backed by Russia) or becomes Russian territory.
7. ??
8. ☭Наш Советский Союз покоряет весь мир, как огромный медведь на Востоке...☭

[Mephansteras]

Crazy implies that he is acting irrationally. I don't think that's the case. I think this has been thought out very rationally, especially given Russia's long time dependence on Crimea as a warm water port. Taking risks doesn't necessarily imply irrationality any more than acting cautious necessarily implies paranoia.

Putin is taking a big risk here, but the potential rewards for success are huge. If he wins he secures Crimea (and access to the Black Sea) for Russia, shows the world the Russia is strong, and simultaneously shows that the US and Western Europe are weak and can't be depended on. It would be a major step towards Russia regaining Superpower status in the world.


EDIT: Ninja'd a bit, but my point stands.

[Knit tie]

A rather interesting article at snob.ru

[XXSockXX]

I've seen this posted a lot on my FB feed.

Spoiler (click to show/hide)

Official Information from Kiev, Circulated in Brussels Today:

Information regarding the deployment of the military equipment by the Russian Federation near to the State Border of Ukraine

According to the information of The State Border Guard Service of Ukraine the Russian Federation masses military equipment on its territory in immediate proximity to the borders of Ukraine near Kharkiv, Luhansk, and Donetsk region.
Near Kharkiv region:
- On railway station Lisnyky, Voronezh region, 9 echelons of military technique (APC (Armoured Personnel Carrier), IFV (Infantry Fighting Vehicle)) disembarked at the military unit 63796 (ordnance depot in Lisky);
- Between Pletnivka and Zhovtneve in direction Bochkove-Leninskoje (at 1,5-2 km from the Ukrainian border inside Russia) there are 5 APCs, 2 “Ural” trucks, and field-kitchen. The Russian Border Guard restricts movement of local citizens in this direction.

Near Donetsk region:
- Russian Federation Border unit “Vesiolo-Voznesenovka” has been put on higher degree of readiness “assembly” (“Orange”);
- On the border check-point “Vesiolo-Voznesenovka – Novoazovsk” movement of transport with Russian registration has been blocked in the direction to Ukraine;

Near Luhansk region:
- Local citizens informed that there is buildup of forces and armored vehicles at the direction Millerovo – Diakovo at 3-4 km from the Ukrainian State border;
- there is buildup of forces and armored vehicles between Luhansk and Donetsk region in 2 km from the Ukrainian State Border.

According to the information of the General Consulate of Ukraine in Rostov-on-Don the governor of Rostov region ordered to deploy camps for Ukrainian refugees.

All these actions confirm the preparation of the Russian Federation to invade to Ukraine through the land border.

According to the information of the Ministry of Internal Affairs of Ukraine there is information regarding preparation of provocation on the territory the Autonomous Republic of Crimea with plans to kill several Russian soldiers in the night from 3 to 4 March under the guise of Ukrainian side.

In this regard the Ukrainian side repeats its call to peaceful settlement and de-escalation of the situation.

Though the part about refugee camps could also be related to the Russian claim that there were huge waves of refugees. The Ukrainian border guard denies these claims, and they have only been reported by Russian media.

Probable course of events favourable for Russia, provided NATO won't decide to recreate the campaign of Lock On: Modern Air Combat in real life:
1. Pro-Russian protesters take control of regional administrations in Crimea and the South East Ukraine
2. They announce a referendum on seceding from Ukraine.
3. The government in Kiev can't do anything about it, because if they use force, Russia will bomb the shit out of them.
4. The referendum will (obviously) result in separatists winning. Crimea and the South East Ukraine secede.
5. USA and EU rage and threaten sanctions, like in 2008, Putin ignores them.
6. Crimea becomes an semi-independent (and of course unrecognised) state under Russian protection, a-la Abkhazia or South Ossetia. South East Ukraine either becomes a separate state (also backed by Russia) or becomes Russian territory.

That seems to be the plan indeed.

Putin is taking a big risk here, but the potential rewards for success are huge. If he wins he secures Crimea (and access to the Black Sea) for Russia, shows the world the Russia is strong, and simultaneously shows that the US and Western Europe are weak and can't be depended on. It would be a major step towards Russia regaining Superpower status in the world.

Not so sure about the rewards. It might result in a Cold War 2 climate. The world is more globalized than ever, so economic isolation is not fully possible anymore, especially for Europe, but diplomatically this is pretty risky for Russia.

[olemars]

The tragic irony now is that if this escalates into a shooting war, it's the inhabitants in Crimea that get to be the bulletcatchers.

[Sheb]

A Cold War's atmosphere justify Putin's more authoritarian streak: need for a strong leader and all that.

[Descan]

Worst case scenario: A chain of allies type-thing leads to a third world war. Not fucking good, especially if someone whips out the nuclear weapons. Bad.

Canada take your shirt off, you are playing for the Ruskies now...

You'd like that, wouldn't you? ;3

[Knit tie]

The tragic irony now is that if this escalates into a shooting war, it's the inhabitants in Crimea that get to be the bulletcatchers.

That was never, unfortunately, in doubt, my friend.

[Bouchart]

Interesting short article.