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[mainiac]

MonkeyHead, we;re talking about Poutine here. He's crazy.

Never use the excuse "he's crazy" to explain something.  It's not an explanation, it's a statement of ignorance.

[Sheb]

Facts on the ground. Striking while Kiev was disorganized let them take over Crimea without firing a shot, while waiting for the vote would also have given to to Kiev to get its shit together and oppose a secession more effectively.

[Dutchling]

MonkeyHead, we;re talking about Poutine here. He's crazy.

Never use the excuse "he's crazy" to explain something.  It's not an explanation, it's a statement of ignorance.

Oh, I agree 100%. I was just kind of making a Canadian 'food' joke :v

[10ebbor10]

I am left with a lot of "WTF??" regarding Russia. Russia wants to take possession of the Crimea, or at least have it as an independant puppet state. I get that even if I dont agree with it - it sort of makes sense in a crude kind of way considering history/demographics and all that. Why the fuck they feel the need to be all big bully boy in the playground and start a war over it - which appears to be exactly what Russia wants to do - is totally lost on me. A free, fair and open vote which looked like it was going to "sort of" happen would in all certainty give them control directly or indirectly over the Crimea anyway, without all the associated shit that will fall on thier heads that a war will cause. Via conflict, Russia will gain the Crimea but lose so much in other ways. Sorry, threatening to attack Ukranian bases (which have been perfectly peacable) goes way above and beyond some kind of "protection" mission into blatant disregard for sovereignty and human life.

Because they don't want Crimea to break off. If they get Crimea, they will loose the rest of Ukraine. (Most pro-Russians are to be found in Crimea, after all). They took over Crimea, and intend to push on to get rid of the new government in Kiev.

[timferius]

Poutine is delicious, and this situation is messed. I don't normally wander down this far in the forums, but I've been keeping an eye on these developments and want to watch/participate in the discussion there of, so uh... hi General Discussion boards.
I know Russia has strong-armed around in Georgia in the past, which sorta made news then faded. What are the odds this will go the same?

[10ebbor10]

Apparently, they have made an ultimatum to surrender before 03:00 GMT, or they'll open fire.

So, quite likely.

[Sheb]

Well, it's to the forces in Crimea. That would give them total control of Crimea, but nothing else.

[smirk]

Okay, theory time: Russia might or might not get direct control of Crimea in the next couple of days. But more importantly, they're polarizing Ukraine and indirectly strengthening the positions of far-right nationalist groups, just by being there. If said groups wield enough sway in the near future, it will only destabilize Ukraine further down the road - they have very small voter bases, and most people are generally uncomfortable with fascists or near-fascists in power. A destabilized and plummeting Ukraine will make it much easier for Putin to put a puppet government back in control later, rather than the possibility of Ukraine stabilizing right now and slipping away for good. They're running a long game (assuming Russian forces don't actually attack in the next 12 hours, of course, which would confirm my other 'Putin is hitting his second childhood' theory).

I could be completely off the mark, of course; too far away to be really sure of anything.

Oh, Putin. If you were an American politician, we'd elect the shit out of you =/

[Darvi]

Oh, Putin. If you were an American politician, we'd elect the shit out of you =/

No you wouldn't.

[smirk]

Oh, Putin. If you were an American politician, we'd elect the shit out of you =/

No you wouldn't.

I dunno. I've been to Arizona 0_o

[XXSockXX]

A destabilized and plummeting Ukraine will make it much easier for Putin to put a puppet government back in control later, rather than the possibility of Ukraine stabilizing right now and slipping away for good.

That's my guess too, he doesn't give Kiev the breathing space to consolidate, which as I said before would have been a badly needed huge task.

Putin's ultimate political goal seems to be to re-unite the former Soviet Union territories under Russian leadership (not necessarily by force, though he sees that as an option). That doesn't make him a Soviet, but an imperialist. These plans have been threatened by former Soviet countries seeking closer relationships with the West. Especially Ukraine is very important to him, because it is a) culturally (what he regards as) Russian core territory, due to the line of tradition from the Kievan Rus and b) it is the biggest non-Russian former Soviet state. If you see it through this imperialist perspective, Russia has been losing to the West since 1990. I've heard many commentators say that the revolution in Kiev has weakened Putin a lot, so now he feels compelled to act, both due to internal pressure (he himself has been building the image of a threat to Russians) and external pressure. He doesn't want to lose face. It's not that he has no pretext at all for his position (the revolution was unconstitutional after all and Ukraine is somewhat divided), it's just that probably most of what he wants could have been achieved diplomatically, if he hadn't felt the need to play the strong man so much.

BTW, while I still think that the debate about NATO is unneccesary, there is also a Russian drill in the Baltic going on.

Anyway, yes, the West has done a royal job of screwing shit up, and has overwhelmingly decided NOT to do whatever things would unequivocally make the situation better.

What would realistically have made the situation better? I'm not so sure that the West has acted that clever either, but I don't really see what else could have been done. Currently we can only try to negotiate.

[MonkeyHead]

The BBC is reporting that the Russian Defense Ministry are dismissing the Ukranian cliams of an inpending offensive as "utter nonsense".

Which again raises the question of what the fuck is Russia doing with so many troops in the region?

[Sheb]

I think GlyphGryph meant in general, not in Ukraine.

As for Putin, I kinda understand his urge to build an Eurasian Union. Integration with the West is impossible, both due to Russia's self-esteem (After all, joining the EU means putting you on the same level as Luxemburg, and even being in the West by and large mean subordinating yourself to the US.) and the fact the Russians were traumatized by the shock therapy of the 1990's and are dubious of the west. And in today's globalized world, you can't make it on your own.

[Mephansteras]

Oddly, all of this makes perfect sense to me. Probably because I've been playing too much Crusader Kings lately, but I'll I can see is that Putin is trying to annex a territory during a succession crisis of a bordering nation.

Not that I approve, especially since the consequences of this conflict could be rather devastating, but none of this seems crazy at all. Risky, yes, but not crazy.

[nenjin]

The BBC is reporting that the Russian Defense Ministry are dismissing the Ukranian cliams of an inpending offensive as "utter nonsense".

Which again raises the question of what the fuck is Russia doing with so many troops in the region?

The Russian Government mastered disinformation BS a long time ago. They don't care if the world sees them say one thing and do another. They're simply trying to buy time until they're ready to act by flat out disagreeing with anything that gets said.