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[kaijyuu]

Oh, good god. "Pretty please don't oppress us?" Freedom is a struggle, dude. If you and yours aren't willing to take it you will never have it.

Are you a supervillain?

[MetalSlimeHunt]

And how many innocent people do you think will ultimately die if Putin is just allowed to do whatever he wants? The Ukrainians have been fighting for freedom, and they deserve it, as do all people. They most definitely do not deserve to be under the thumb of a thug like Putin, no matter which language they speak.

If you have been following the events, it's not as simple as that. There is likely a majority in Crimea who wants to be part of Russia. This will screw the minorities there probably and the way this is going it also does not respect Ukraine's or Crimea's sovereignty at all. But still, it's not that simple.

There's certainly a majority that speak Russian. Whether or not they actually want to be a part of Russia is a question we haven't quite gotten any data on yet. But either way, there will be greater oppression if Crimea is annexed than if it is not, so I support the latter.

Oh, good god. "Pretty please don't oppress us?" Freedom is a struggle, dude. If you and yours aren't willing to take it you will never have it.

Are you a supervillain?

I understand that apathy is as easy a path to oppression as rabid populism.

[codyorr]

People are dying DAMNIT! Stop fucking being stupid 12 year olds on the INTERNET! This is an important thread!

[Knit tie]

Oh, good god. "Pretty please don't oppress us?" Freedom is a struggle, dude. If you and yours aren't willing to take it you will never have it.

If the crimeans themselves decide to oppose the occupants with armed resistance, I swear to God, I'll go there and help them. But the west dragging Crimea into a war if it doesn't want to fight is much worse, in my opinion, then the west letting Putin just have it.

People are dying DAMNIT! Stop fucking being stupid 12 year olds on the INTERNET! This is an important thread!

Well, just talking about the problem won't make it go away.

[Descan]

People are dying DAMNIT! Stop fucking being stupid 12 year olds on the INTERNET! This is an important thread!

I... don't think anyone has been shot at yet. So... No one is dying yet?

[misko27]

Yeah, sorry to say but Obama would have to risk a lot to move on Ukraine now. The only people I could imagine legitimately responding if Russia acts is the EU (unless Ukraine directly asks Nato "Hey guys can I get a friendly intervention here"), and they are more likely to invade Switzerland then intervene in the Ukraine. And at the same time, he knows he has to project force to dissuade Russia.

Assuming that we both live on the same planet, what would you expect the EU to do here? I think, if Russia goes full confrontation here the most anybody can really do is diplomatic isolation and some minor_at_best economic sanctions. I wouldn't hold that against NATO or the EU or US, because nobody wants WW3.

Then, it would be hard. Now, it would be easy. The whole exercise is a complicated game of Chicken, where Russia can be dissuaded if it really believes the EU would go batshit and counter-invade, regardless of whether they would actually do so. The problem is Putin knows the EU wouldn't intervene under any circumstance, while we can't say the same for him. Putting a few NATO troops into the Ukraine (as an example) would tie NATO to Ukraine's fate: If Russia invaded,, NATO troops would be in danger, and NATO would have to respond immediately; hence why Putin wouldn't do it. It's mind-games all the way down.

People are dying DAMNIT! Stop fucking being stupid 12 year olds on the INTERNET! This is an important thread!

I don't understand this.

Oh, good god. "Pretty please don't oppress us?" Freedom is a struggle, dude. If you and yours aren't willing to take it you will never have it.

Are you a supervillain?

I would get behind that supervillainy. Mostly because "Supervillain yeah let's be evil", but also because freedom. (Logic)

[kaijyuu]

Oh, good god. "Pretty please don't oppress us?" Freedom is a struggle, dude. If you and yours aren't willing to take it you will never have it.

Are you a supervillain?

I understand that apathy is as easy a path to oppression as rabid populism.

Just amused with your rhetoric, is all.

[XXSockXX]

There's certainly a majority that speak Russian. Whether or not they actually want to be a part of Russia is a question we haven't quite gotten any data on yet. But either way, there will be greater oppression if Crimea is annexed than if it is not, so I support the latter.

Well, of course they should have waited for the referendum that was planned for May. With the Russian propaganda goin on there are likely a lot of people in Crimea who think Ukraine has been taken over by fascists, so it is plausible to assume they might have voted for joining Russia anyway.

Then, it would be hard. Now, it would be easy. The whole exercise is a complicated game of Chicken, where Russia can be dissuaded if it really believes the EU would go batshit and counter-invade, regardless of whether they would actually do so. The problem is Putin knows the EU wouldn't intervene under any circumstance, while we can't say the same for him. Putting a few NATO troops into the Ukraine (as an example) would tie NATO to Ukraine's fate: If Russia invaded,, NATO troops would be in danger, and NATO would have to respond immediately; hence why Putin wouldn't do it. It's mind-games all the way down.

The EU doesn't even have an army. Stationing NATO or any other troops in Ukraine would up the stakes in this game through the roof. That's really not how things work...

[misko27]

There's certainly a majority that speak Russian. Whether or not they actually want to be a part of Russia is a question we haven't quite gotten any data on yet. But either way, there will be greater oppression if Crimea is annexed than if it is not, so I support the latter.

Well, of course they should have waited for the referendum that was planned for May. With the Russian propaganda goin on there are likely a lot of people in Crimea who think Ukraine has been taken over by fascists, so it is plausible to assume they might have voted for joining Russia anyway.

Then, it would be hard. Now, it would be easy. The whole exercise is a complicated game of Chicken, where Russia can be dissuaded if it really believes the EU would go batshit and counter-invade, regardless of whether they would actually do so. The problem is Putin knows the EU wouldn't intervene under any circumstance, while we can't say the same for him. Putting a few NATO troops into the Ukraine (as an example) would tie NATO to Ukraine's fate: If Russia invaded,, NATO troops would be in danger, and NATO would have to respond immediately; hence why Putin wouldn't do it. It's mind-games all the way down.

The EU doesn't even have an army. Stationing NATO or any other troops in Ukraine would up the stakes in this game through the roof. That's really not how things work...

I know that. That's why 'twas only an example. I'm certainly not recommending it as a course of action. That's why my original post only referenced the EU is passing.

Yes it would up the stakes, but that's the point; up the stakes to make Putin back out. The other point is that it's not worth it to raise them over this, hence Obama's attempt to subtly raise them. The unspoken undercurrent was that unless Putin is dissuaded (and even then, if pro-Russian milities remain in charge), the Crimea is already lost and that this is simply conjecture.

[Sergarr]

I think stationing NATO troops in a country without its approval would be an invasion and therefore against international law, right?

[misko27]

I think stationing NATO troops in a country without its approval would be an invasion and therefore against international law, right?

That's why I mentioned Ukraine having to ask, again in that first thing I said, the thing he did not quote when he responded.

Oh lord I know when I'm not being heard. It's enough to say that nothing can stop Putin now, barring something weird.

[Chaoswizkid]

FAKE-EDIT: Meant to post this hours ago, thought it went through but apparently a 504 ate it instead of posting. Idk if this has been sent since since I really only skimmed through the last handful of pages looking for my post, so I apologize if I'm just repeating something.

This is going to probably be the point in the century where the USA is shown to be the impotent floppy blancmange that it is and that Putin can do whatever he likes while they just sit and bluster. Putin can invade and annex other countries, overthrow governments, turn the tides in civil wars in his favour and there's nothing the USA can do about it.

Crimea 2014 is looking more and more similar to  Sudetenland 1938

I was thinking exactly the same thing.


I think the only way we can retain the status quo is if US+EU+whoever else basically says "Putin, listen, don't annex Crimea because you'll piss everyone off and I don't think you want to fight WW3 over a tiny peninsula any more than we do. If Crimea goes independent and then has really good relations with you, even a pro-Russia government, as long as you aren't obviously pulling the strings, I think everything can settle. Crimea gets what they want mostly, Ukraine doesn't come out a complete loser because they got rid of your cronies in their government, you get a new ally which will regard you favorably and we don't look like we sat around with our thumbs up our asses. We can't really step into a region that wants to secede and look like the good guys, so we won't, but if you actually take Crimea... you're going to piss off a lot of people, and democracy can do pretty crazy things if that happens."

That's for the status-quo. Things will definitely change if it turns out this is just a vocal minority prompting Putin to steal away Crimea from Ukraine, in which case Putin did not act in the interest of Crimeans which will cause major problems. Worse is if the secessionist movement is found to have strong ties for Putin. If NATO steps in before then, we look like we're just being completely antagonistic to Russia. Which we kind of are, but everyone on any side really wishes it wasn't like that so everyone's hesitant.

FAKEEDIT2:

Oh lord I know when I'm not being heard. It's enough to say that nothing can stop Putin now, barring something weird.

Assuming of course that Western leaders and Putin haven't been talking to each other the entire time (that is, before or starting during Maidan) about keeping the status quo around.

[ChairmanPoo]

I don't know about you, but I'd be less than thrilled by an EU (or USA. Or NATO) intervention in Ukraine simply because it would be likely to end up badly for all parties involved. Even if we didn't all get a plutonium tan, the war would surely make the economic crisis even worse. 

[burningpet]

Well, of course they should have waited for the referendum that was planned for May. With the Russian propaganda goin on there are likely a lot of people in Crimea who think Ukraine has been taken over by fascists, so it is plausible to assume they might have voted for joining Russia anyway.

The funny thing about propaganda, is that good ones convince you that your "side" is right, and the other side is simply employing a propaganda full of lies. the best ones does so subtly.

Lets amuse ourselves in a theoretical debate:
What if the israeli government was overthrown with the great help of an ultra right wing party rooted in racism and the first thing they do after they violently overthrow the government is to demote the arabic language, what would native arab speakers think about all this? what should a neighbouring arab country, say, jordan, do about it?

[MonkeyHead]

Well, ones opinion on that hinges on if you think that one nation state has the right or not to interfere in the dealings of another.