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Author Topic: UR's Post-USSR politics megathread  (Read 309296 times)

GlyphGryph

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Re: Russian intervention in Ukraine
« Reply #2700 on: March 16, 2014, 10:32:21 am »

He's making a non sequiter ad hominem, not a straw man! Like some sort of commie, he's arguing we should ALL make strawman, and I, for one, can not STAND it!
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Knit tie

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Re: Russian intervention in Ukraine
« Reply #2701 on: March 16, 2014, 12:34:11 pm »

Right, guys, any actual news? I heard the referendum has already occurred.
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Sheb

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Re: Russian intervention in Ukraine
« Reply #2702 on: March 16, 2014, 12:35:52 pm »

It's still happening, the polls should close in around 90 minutes.
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Quote from: Paul-Henry Spaak
Europe consists only of small countries, some of which know it and some of which don’t yet.

Knit tie

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Re: Russian intervention in Ukraine
« Reply #2703 on: March 16, 2014, 12:44:21 pm »

I bet Crimea will join Russia. Although some people might vote for joining Russia instead.
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Owlbread

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Re: Russian intervention in Ukraine
« Reply #2704 on: March 16, 2014, 12:47:51 pm »

Given that the EU and the USA are refusing to recognise the outcome of the referendum Crimea is going to be much more like South Ossetia or Transnistria than, say, Karelia or Stavropol Krai.

For all intents and purposes South Ossetia and Transnistria are subjects/republics of the Russian Federation, but problems with international recognition and hostility mean they are forced to be de facto independent countries. They were formed however with clear "independence" mandates, not mandates for joining Russia. I don't know if that means Crimea will be a very unique entity, more clearly a federal subject but almost Kashmir-like given the lack of international recognition and disputed sovereignty.

In any case, from now on any maps purchased in the West will probably show a dotted line around Crimea with "Russia" written in grey italics next to it.
« Last Edit: March 16, 2014, 12:53:52 pm by Owlbread »
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Helgoland

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Re: Russian intervention in Ukraine
« Reply #2705 on: March 16, 2014, 01:11:49 pm »


If Ukraine joined NATO and then tried to retake Crimea, what would happen?
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Arguably he's already a progressive, just one in the style of an enlightened Kaiser.
I'm going to do the smart thing here and disengage. This isn't a hill I paticularly care to die on.

Comrade P.

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Re: Russian intervention in Ukraine
« Reply #2706 on: March 16, 2014, 01:18:04 pm »


If Ukraine joined NATO and then tried to retake Crimea, what would happen?

WWIII.
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Sigs

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Sheb

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Re: Russian intervention in Ukraine
« Reply #2707 on: March 16, 2014, 01:19:14 pm »

Good question. NATO is only bound to help defend its members, so it would depend on whether NATO rule Ukraine is defending itself or attacking Russia/Crimea.
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Quote from: Paul-Henry Spaak
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Ukrainian Ranger

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Re: Russian intervention in Ukraine
« Reply #2708 on: March 16, 2014, 01:20:33 pm »

Spoiler (click to show/hide)
So, unknown exit poll says that 93% want to Russia! Yay!
Interesting what turnout they'll announce


Comrade P.
WW3 will happen anyway, either now or several years later when Russia will do something that West can't tolerate, like occupying Baltic states
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War must be, while we defend our lives against a destroyer who would devour all; but I do not love the bright sword for its sharpness, nor the arrow for its swiftness, nor the warrior for his glory. I love only that which they defend.

GrizzlyAdamz

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Re: Russian intervention in Ukraine
« Reply #2709 on: March 16, 2014, 01:53:35 pm »

Heh, already sounding totally legit.

I'd wager for that reason (among others) Ukraine won't get to join.
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Ukrainian Ranger

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War must be, while we defend our lives against a destroyer who would devour all; but I do not love the bright sword for its sharpness, nor the arrow for its swiftness, nor the warrior for his glory. I love only that which they defend.

Comrade P.

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Re: Russian intervention in Ukraine
« Reply #2711 on: March 16, 2014, 02:08:02 pm »

Comrade P.
WW3 will happen anyway, either now or several years later when Russia will do something that West can't tolerate, like occupying Baltic states

Ahem. [sarcasm]Comrade Russian Foreign Mininster! Why you reveal yourself and our top secret plans?[/sarcasm]
Seiously.W hat is the reason that makes you think this way? Why the fuck Russia should escalate conflict? In order to do what? Start a WWIII? This is not the russian goal. Nobody wants WWIII. Or maybe some of you guys? Anyone? No?

Looks like another genocide of Crimean Tatars begins :(
Did someone said something about biased media? Should I spam you with plenty of sources telling of genocide performed by right sector?
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Sigs

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GlyphGryph

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Re: Russian intervention in Ukraine
« Reply #2712 on: March 16, 2014, 02:11:53 pm »

Remember that UR is currently in the middle of a Russian invasion, so he's decidedly pessimistic about Russian's willingness to stop it's advance here... and for good reason.
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Ukrainian Ranger

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Re: Russian intervention in Ukraine
« Reply #2713 on: March 16, 2014, 02:24:25 pm »

Quote
Seiously.W hat is the reason that makes you think this way? Why the fuck Russia should escalate conflict? In order to do what? Start a WWIII? This is not the russian goal. Nobody wants WWIII. Or maybe some of you guys? Anyone? No?
I bet that average German in 1939 would say - "no, we don't want a new Great War. For what?  Nobody want the second Great War. We are a peaceful nation. "


I don't believe that Russian invasion will stop with Crimea. It's a nonsense to launch an expensive military operation, ruin  diplomatic capital and hit domestic economics in exchange for a underdeveloped poor region (Even by Ukrainian standard Crimea is poor 3% of GDP,  while 4.3% of territory and 4-5% of population),  that will be further hit by all that instability. Doing the same in exchange for industrial part of Ukraine and\or placing Yanukovitch back in power  is much more logical.
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War must be, while we defend our lives against a destroyer who would devour all; but I do not love the bright sword for its sharpness, nor the arrow for its swiftness, nor the warrior for his glory. I love only that which they defend.

Bauglir

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Re: Russian intervention in Ukraine
« Reply #2714 on: March 16, 2014, 02:30:58 pm »

Why the fuck Russia should escalate conflict? In order to do what? Start a WWIII? This is not the russian goal. Nobody wants WWIII. Or maybe some of you guys? Anyone? No?
Nobody wanted what WW1 turned out to be, either. When people predict WW3, it's not a prediction of scheming masterminds bringing down the world, it's a prediction of somebody getting overconfident or making a mistake or otherwise taking a gamble that doesn't pay off. We had a Cold War for a reason, although I'm not saying you can equate modern-day Russia with the Soviet Union in all ways - just that you can equate nearly any nuclear-armed state with the Soviet Union for the purposes of predicting the efficacy of military deterrence.

Saying WW3 is impossible is disturbingly similar to some advice that came up during the Cuban Missile Crisis: No rational person would choose nuclear war. Therefore, there could be no possible response to an attack by a nation armed with nuclear weapons. Therefore, the best option for the US to resolve a diplomatic problem was to bomb the shit out of it. Hopefully, it's obvious why that's insane. Basically, it's not a realistic strategy to assume that nobody will choose an option that no rational actor would choose - there are a lot of reasons why, and I highly recommend studying this stuff for a better explanation than I can ever give over a forum, but things can happen that nobody wants. Game theory's a good place to start, although it tends to have the troublesome assumption that everyone involved is rational. Again, bringing up the Soviet Union is kind of a coincidence, since this thinking kind of applies to everyone, but here we are.

I don't know the politics well enough to say how likely some kind of WW3 scenario actually is to spring from Russian actions, but I know enough about human nature to say you should never rule something out because it's too terrible to contemplate.
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In the days when Sussman was a novice, Minsky once came to him as he sat hacking at the PDP-6.
“What are you doing?”, asked Minsky. “I am training a randomly wired neural net to play Tic-Tac-Toe” Sussman replied. “Why is the net wired randomly?”, asked Minsky. “I do not want it to have any preconceptions of how to play”, Sussman said.
Minsky then shut his eyes. “Why do you close your eyes?”, Sussman asked his teacher.
“So that the room will be empty.”
At that moment, Sussman was enlightened.
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