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[Toaster]

Hapah has replaced Urist Imiknorris.

[NativeForeigner]

NativeForeigner:

-snip-

I'm curious what your take is now that ToonyMan has admitted it was a bluff under questioning.

Partly because I want to know, and partly because I see you've hardly posted at all. Nor has Urist Imiknorris, come to think of it. I'm beginning to seriously suspect we've got someone trying to active scumlurk here, I'm just not sure which.

However, you two are still pale blips on my scumdar. Others raise my hackles more.

Assuming he's not bluffing about the bluff, it's a risky move but it's high-reward if it works out. Best case: it tricks the target into roleclaiming. Worst case: you get called on it and potentially lynched. I don't think it's a risk scum would actually take.

[makeinu]

NationalForeigner

I giggled at this.

I did too, a little.

Next post will probably see me talking to Elephant Prada, MakeINew, SoupOfBlackCat, and Blender.

*snerk*

Trivialities aside.

Oh right, something I was thinking about at work today.
This is just a theory, but with the one-extension-per-player-only rule there can be some interesting meta.
For example, scum should not hold onto their extensions, this is because at the end of the game only a few people will have extensions, extensions help town for the most part.  If there's two players left with extensions and only one is willing to extend, then that looks a lot more town.  So to counter this the scum would probably want to extend as early as possible when it's much less useful and won't have the pressure of much needed extends towards the end.

Meh. [1] Too much meta.
[2] Using a one-shot extension has the double benefit of looking town, because scum-meta is shut down conversations, end days on lynches, especially mis-lynches, because they don't care who the town hangs.
[3] Have another glass of wine. I hear the poison is weaker the higher the dose.

That's true.

Which part, [1], [2], or [3].

Seriously, though, there's no way to read anything into the use of extends in this setup, or indeed any, because it's way too easy to read too much into them. My opinion anyway, and I'm discounting them entirely.

Spoiler: Congratulations! (click to show/hide)

Toony: Why were you absent, anyway? I recount the day's votes and...it has been more calm than not, from you. Pretty inactive today.
Anything up, there?

I couldn't post yesterday because I'm actually moving into my first apartment ever tomorrow, yeah.  I've been more busy than usual recently.

First "home of your own" is a big deal.

Also, vote DarkStar because I'm not scum and his vote is by far the weakest on me (even Tiruin defends me!).

Bah. Tied vote == bad. Even with another extend. Related, gripe gripe will this day never end? </sarcasm>

We need to come to a consensus here, of a sorts at least. Four town dead means that a mislynch puts us outnumbering the scum by only one tomorrow(4:3), assuming the night kill goes through. With the SK almost certainly (99%) disproved this game, there are only five possible scum teams, and three have a JOAT with a Strongman and a Ninja kill. Even if the Doctor protects well, there's a 60% chance that kill will happen.

If we lynch right, then we're 5:2 tomorrow, and can spare some time to dig deeper. If we NL, then we're 5:3, and can't afford to screw up.

Toony: What would you have done when Pufferfish would say that he didn't do anything?

His response should have been within 24 hours, and if he said anything fishy I would have turned it into a lynch vote.  Because he was gone though a lot of people started feeling anticipation for it and I didn't really feel like backing down until he got replaced.

I'll do my Extend: ToonyMan now, but because I am not sure I will have internet access for all of tomorrow I will also be role-claiming tonight if I am the lynch vote.

Unvote. I can't in good conscience let a tie vote stand, not when I'm not 100% convinced the party I'm voting for is guilty. And Toony is acting too town for me to think it's an act. On the flip side of that, I'm still not convinced TDS is scum. He's playing what I'm taking as his normal game, and I just can't get a read on him. Not like I did the last game we played together. He hasn't done anything so blatant as he did that game, and I can't decide if it's just bad play, scummy, or scum that I'm getting off him.

Somebody give me arguments I'm wrong either way.

PPE:


Hapah:

Urist didn't have terribly much to say before he begged off. You say you've been reading the thread.

I'm sure we'd all love your input and reads, as a fresh set of eyes. I think we need a fresh perspective, personally.

PPE ninjas again...

NativeForeigner:

-snip-

I'm curious what your take is now that ToonyMan has admitted it was a bluff under questioning.

Partly because I want to know, and partly because I see you've hardly posted at all. Nor has Urist Imiknorris, come to think of it. I'm beginning to seriously suspect we've got someone trying to active scumlurk here, I'm just not sure which.

However, you two are still pale blips on my scumdar. Others raise my hackles more.

Assuming he's not bluffing about the bluff, it's a risky move but it's high-reward if it works out. Best case: it tricks the target into roleclaiming. Worst case: you get called on it and potentially lynched. I don't think it's a risk scum would actually take.

I have to agree with that assessment. Toony is playing it off too casual to give me a bold-scum-play read off that. Having your Hail Mary play called like that typically rattles scum. Town will shrug it off. Typically.

[Superblackcat]

Toonyman: Tying up the vote eh?

Makeinu: I really don't know why, but I'm not really noticing anything from you guys. nothing seems out of porportion except for TDS and Toony, but that's because they are attracting attention.

WHat I don't really think scum would do. But given that Toony is experienced. It may be wifom.

[TheDarkStar]

Unvote. I can't in good conscience let a tie vote stand, not when I'm not 100% convinced the party I'm voting for is guilty. And Toony is acting too town for me to think it's an act. On the flip side of that, I'm still not convinced TDS is scum. He's playing what I'm taking as his normal game, and I just can't get a read on him. Not like I did the last game we played together. He hasn't done anything so blatant as he did that game, and I can't decide if it's just bad play, scummy, or scum that I'm getting off him.

Somebody give me arguments I'm wrong either way.

Here's a reason: Toony tried to get someone mislynched. While that person might have been able to respond within a short time, almost any denial on their part would have been seen as scum lying. Also, why would he care about a roleclaim as town? He also took a while to reveal that he was lying, but only after drawing questioning.

And then there's what I've done: Responded to criticism after a pressure vote. And yet, I'm the one getting voted for, while he gets to live.

Another reason:

Also, vote DarkStar because I'm not scum and his vote is by far the weakest on me (even Tiruin defends me!).

My votes might be flighty, but that is not a reason to vote for me. I still try to get rid of the scummy people, unlike Toony, who tried to get a random person dead.

NativeForeigner:

-snip-

I'm curious what your take is now that ToonyMan has admitted it was a bluff under questioning.

Partly because I want to know, and partly because I see you've hardly posted at all. Nor has Urist Imiknorris, come to think of it. I'm beginning to seriously suspect we've got someone trying to active scumlurk here, I'm just not sure which.

However, you two are still pale blips on my scumdar. Others raise my hackles more.

Assuming he's not bluffing about the bluff, it's a risky move but it's high-reward if it works out. Best case: it tricks the target into roleclaiming. Worst case: you get called on it and potentially lynched. I don't think it's a risk scum would actually take.

I have to agree with that assessment. Toony is playing it off too casual to give me a bold-scum-play read off that. Having your Hail Mary play called like that typically rattles scum. Town will shrug it off. Typically.

Toony's casualness give me the opposite read. A town person would not randomly incriminate people this late - we are long past the RVS stage. Rather, if he were town, he would only use his tactic against people he was actually suspicious of.

[Tiruin]

Bloodfish.

Ok, reads coming up soonish. I've it all saved in my nifty USB.

...
>_>
TDS

Unvote. I can't in good conscience let a tie vote stand, not when I'm not 100% convinced the party I'm voting for is guilty. And Toony is acting too town for me to think it's an act. On the flip side of that, I'm still not convinced TDS is scum. He's playing what I'm taking as his normal game, and I just can't get a read on him. Not like I did the last game we played together. He hasn't done anything so blatant as he did that game, and I can't decide if it's just bad play, scummy, or scum that I'm getting off him.

Somebody give me arguments I'm wrong either way.

Here's a reason: Toony tried to get someone mislynched. While that person might have been able to respond within a short time, almost any denial on their part would have been seen as scum lying. Also, why would he care about a roleclaim as town? He also took a while to reveal that he was lying, but only after drawing questioning.

And then there's what I've done: Responded to criticism after a pressure vote. And yet, I'm the one getting voted for, while he gets to live.

Another reason:

Also, vote DarkStar because I'm not scum and his vote is by far the weakest on me (even Tiruin defends me!).

My votes might be flighty, but that is not a reason to vote for me. I still try to get rid of the scummy people, unlike Toony, who tried to get a random person dead.

That's sorta skewed, your judgement there.

Why the exact wording of 'mislynch'? Next,

And then there's what I've done: Responded to criticism after a pressure vote. And yet, I'm the one getting voted for, while he gets to live.

Very general. That's offsetting why we're voting you. That, and you don't attack the reasons why we vote you (primarily mine) but...do personal stuff as if its you being attacked (personal note: All attacks and stuff made and proposed against you are NOT AGAINST YOU AS A PERSON, but as your play, as a player--and how you are in-game. To quote Toaster: "We're all chums and buddies out of game but in-game we go at each others' throats quite well." paraphrased.

And you miss quite a lot of questions designed to know you more, so I really don't know what to think of you and why you miss those questions. You don't even say that they're 'trivial' or whatever. Just. Ignored.

Next: What is your definition of scummy people? What makes a person scum, in your eyes?

Toony's casualness give me the opposite read. A town person would not randomly incriminate people this late - we are long past the RVS stage. Rather, if he were town, he would only use his tactic against people he was actually suspicious of.

Though, I agree on this. While Toony could've pulled it off...earlier, he only did it after 'stuff' happened, which gives incrimation or a feeling of such towards the timing done.

However he's being quite clean in doing it.
^{Also I do quite like how you can afford to give these long lengths of response to everyone else here except me but bleh.}

Also, vote DarkStar because I'm not scum and his vote is by far the weakest on me (even Tiruin defends me!).

Back this up, Toony. I know you're pretty busy there but..why TDS of all the people here?
^{And I get a mention with that 'even' D: Waaaahhh T_T}
TDS, however, in his reply above, has quite a point here (despite my bias towards him :I). This seems quite 'flighty'.

[Tiruin]

Shortened version: I believe Toony is town and is getting flak for a short-snip he failed to address in the time being, or is reacting against what Puffin/scientist has given--I thoroughly doubt that he'd be laying it easy and letting it lie even if scum..because that doesn't jive with my notes on him as of late.

Or, y'know, how his reaction is given.

Toony: you were aware that your vote would tie the count, yes? If town, then that'd end as a no-lynch for the day, but that's trivial when this question is given:
> What can you make of those voting you? Does their case make sense?
> That post above this one where my questions are, please address that too, thanks.

[Hapah]

Alright, let's get to it!

Urist didn't have terribly much to say before he begged off. You say you've been reading the thread.

I'm sure we'd all love your input and reads, as a fresh set of eyes. I think we need a fresh perspective, personally.

I only started reading it today, and it's a lot to take in. I do have a couple of observations, though!

Concerning Roles: I think it's useless to speculate on roles at this point. There are up to 5 town power roles left, to say nothing of a scum JOAT or SK. There's just too many unknown to draw any meaningful conclusions. (though I did find it interesting that SK's were discussed much more than Vig's early in the day)

Concerning Toony: At this point I'm leaning quite heavily towards Toony being town, and I will tell you why.

Spoiler: Why Toony is probably town (click to show/hide)

Imagine that Toony is scum for a minute. If he decided to pull that bluff early into D2, what is his best-case scenario? Realistically, the best case is that people buy the bluff, right? Everyone agrees with the bluff and lynches Puffer (who, if Toony were scum, would make Puffer almost certainly town unless it was a bus. And if it was a bus, you'd expect something more concrete than the vague "I know what you did", right)? Puffer flips town, and Toony is gonna have to explain the bad read away D3, assuming he doesn't eat a bullet in the night. So, unless I'm mistaken (and please correct me if I am), his best case would be a 1 to 1 trade with the Town. And don't forget that this best case says nothing of the possibility of Trackers (which are the most heavily-weighted power role, mind you) or any other power roles. There are a lot of things that could go wrong and not a lot of things that could make it better.

Now, ask yourself: At the start of D2, with things going your way (4 townies down already has to look good), would you really attempt this sort of gamble as scum? Would you attempt a bus when the bus target hadn't so much goofed as been inactive, and game momentum was clearly in your favor? It'd be a terrible play.

Toony's reasoning behind the bluff seems somewhat reasonable, but I honestly haven't given it too much thought: the fact that it'd be a terrible play as scum (and Toony is far from a terrible scum player) is good enough for me right now. If you see an angle I don't, please tell me.

More (reads, vote) to come, but it's gonna take a minute so I might as well get this out now. If you're voting Toony, tell me what you think of the above.

[Hapah]

Reads! I've focused much more (almost exclusively, really) on the D2 content.

Elephant Parade: The only thing we've gotten D2 (and I do mean the only thing) is a list of reads, due to sickness and lazyness (his words, not mine). C'mon boss, weigh in!
Tiruin: Oh gawd make more short posts. This one is gonna have to wait until tomorrow.
TheDarkStar: The reasoning behind the vote is going to have to wait until tomorrow, but I swear it's coming
Superblackcat: Was initially unsure due to the really vague vote on TDS here, but it looks like he's done an alright job of trying to defend his vote (some here and here and here) instead of backing away from it. Neutral.
scientist: Make his own argument post instead of hopping on with someone else, and striking a conciliatory tone when the object of his suspicions has a decent explanation, but I'm having trouble following some of the arguments involved. We'll call this one neutral for now.
makeinu: You seem pretty clever, and this worries me. I'm going to have to be more critical of your posts, and this will take me a little time.
ToonyMan: Leaning heavily town, for reasons listed in the previous post.
NativeForeigner: Leaning town, due to his exchange with TDS here, and the questions at both Toony and scientist concerning Toony's bluff. Would very much like to see another post from him, though.

Tir, TDS, and mak are going to have to wait until tomorrow: I've got to get to bed. Open to any observations or comments about my last post or this one, though, and will check the thread throughout work tomorrow (and try to get my reads up before/during lunch).

[Elephant Parade]

Spoiler: Warning: massive quotes lurk within (click to show/hide)

@Hapah: Uh... weigh in on what? If you mean just weigh in on the general situation, I don't have much to say. If you would ask me a more specific question, I would do my best to answer it.

Ok, Reading what's happened recently, there is one person who I am pretty sure is scum, and as he has the most votes at the moment, I'd like to keep it that way.

Doesn't seem odd yet, does it? Read on.

SuperBlackCat

First post that stuck out to me:

Lies! All I see are strings of code Tiruin!

Urist: Nothing actually, I'm currently debating with whom to start.

The most obvious thing here is that most of the way through the first day, and he still wasn't even trying to scumhunt. That would be suspicious on it's own, but he is also, as he does in many other places, brushing aside a persons argument without any real explanation.


Another thing that caught my attention was his interaction with the late Caz. At first, rather saying that Caz was innocent, he said that everyone accusing Caz was Scum, for the reason that the votes were stacking up to fast. That argument didn't make a lot of sense to me, as rapid votes against one person often happen without scum help, normally it's more because someone made a convincing argument against the person. More importantly, after his random accusation move didn't work, he said this:

Heh Caz, Why are you arguing against yourself!

It's because you don't stick out like a sore thumb... yet. Actually this post makes you kinda stick out like a sore thumb. That uncanny valley think Makeinu was talking about.

This was in response to a generally regular post from Caz which doesn't look that scummy to me. More importantly, the post also included:

It's too fast and too many.

Because I look scummy? Why're you defending me, SBC? Know that I'll flip town and want to appear on the right side of smart town? Having no suspects at all this late in the day is very lazy, also.

Note how this argument makes complete sense, especially in retrospect, and superblackcat completely ignored it.

Yeah, he bandwagoned SBC. He did it with reasoning, so it's not too bad, but let's look a bit deeper into the post.

Now their is his interaction with TheDarkStar:
First is this post: (size changes removed for sake of space)

TheDarkStar

This is where my post is to you by the way. I'd like it if you answered my questions. I am resizing this for you to see it, thank you!

(I resized it smaller for you)

I had RL going on earlier, so I was able to make only some short posts; I also changed color because I did not have time to fully explain my vote for Caz. I bet you've noticed how I've posted less over the last few days (in more than one thread); this is because RL started to happen. I'll have more time now, though, so I'll be replying more. Just remember that sometimes people aren't there to read your posts every second of the day.

Take your yelling to someone else, where the problem is being scum and not having a few days of RL going on.

Nice Job Not Answering the question! I think you need glasses.

As stated later, TheDarkStar actually did answer the question, if not exactly well. SuperBlackCat's post wouldn't be very suspicious, if he didn't later post this gem:

@Superblackcat:

Quote from: Superblackcat on Today at 04:45:13 pm
TDS. Much Defensive.
Wow.
You do a good job, of doing a bad job.

Is that it?  Have other thoughts or concerns?

Do I need any other reasons? I think being so defensive is a scum tell. And you can pretty much see it in the past two pages.

Being defensive is a very bad reason, as townies will do it just as much as, if not more than, (which is the case IMHO) scum. He also admits that this is his only reason, which his horrendously suspicious, as earlier he said he didn't feel like scum hunting because he couldn't find anything suspicious. I find it hard to believe that, if Superblackcat were really scumhunting, the only things he was able to find in two days was TheDarkStar being reasonably defensive and Caz "sticking out like a sore thumb" for no apparent reason other than his sensible arguments against SuperBlackcat.

There were also multiple cases where SuperBlackCat seemed perfectly happy to annoy and anger others, relatively minor, and if people want me to bring up quotes I can.

Between the deflection, random accusation, unfounded accusation, bandwagoning, and general attitude, it is obvious to me that Superblackcat is scum.

@SuperBlackCat:
If you address these arguments with real and valid counterarguments, I am willing to believe you're town. (though it will take more than a few lines to convince me.) As it stands, however, you have done nothing to suggest you're innocent.

He also defends TDS. A scientist/TDS scumteam looks somewhat likely to me at this point, though other possibilities certainly exist.

@Pufferfish:
I know what you did last night.

Pufferfish: Mind elaborating for ToonyMan. What did you do last night? I tend to believe D2 claims like this because they have a tendency to backfire horrifically if the claimer is lying. Doesn't confirm his townhood, but I have little doubt behind the reason for the vote.

ToonyMan is lying, Puffer didn't do anything.

This one is odd because of one thing: how could scientist know, unless he was on a scumteam with Puffer and had read the logs? Sure, it might have simply been poorly phrased, but it feels like a scumslip.

More tomorrow, when I'm not so tired.

[NativeForeigner]

Elephant Parade: Regarding your last bit: Scientist replaced Puffer and therefore would know everything he's done or hasn't done.

[Elephant Parade]

Elephant Parade: Regarding your last bit: Scientist replaced Puffer and therefore would know everything he's done or hasn't done.

Oh. Well. In that case, I suppose scientist was either right or responding to an outdated post. I forget if Toony posted after the replacement.

[Tiruin]

Tiruin: Oh gawd make more short posts. This one is gonna have to wait until tomorrow.

You try talking to someone who's ignoring you and let's see how you fare.

Wait, you do it better anyways. I mean, you summarized my thoughts on Toony all there before I could whip out this note-sheet and stuff it up the public quorum. >___>

PS: Hapah's running the town-o-meter for me here right now given his disposition, and how he states such astutely, along with the hypothetical part, and its own counterpart.
PPE: And thus I am PPE'd after Hapah's post. Ok, net, please don't mess up on me now. >_<

[Tiruin]

Elephant Parade: Regarding your last bit: Scientist replaced Puffer and therefore would know everything he's done or hasn't done.

Oh. Well. In that case, I suppose scientist was either right or responding to an outdated post. I forget if Toony posted after the replacement.

O_o

I think you need to jog those memory backs because scientist is Pufferfish's replacement. Unless you mean when Hapah replaced Urist Imiknorris, because if so, then Toony didn't post after the latter, but he did post after the former.

[makeinu]

Wheee! Time!

Well, not really. Ton of appointments in the morning, and I have to be up super early, but if I don't stay up and do this, it won't get done before the day ends. I think... *checks vote board* Yeah, no way I'll have the time. I don't even guarantee I'll get through everything, but I'll try.

PPE: Insomnia is magical... also, wall of text.


Hapah:

makeinu: You seem pretty clever, and this worries me. I'm going to have to be more critical of your posts, and this will take me a little time.

Flattery will get you nowhere. I don't even kiss on the first date. 


Elephant Parade:

No time to add parsing your post onto this. I'll get to that later, hopefully before the day ends.


So, earlier, I said this:

Toony is acting too town for me to think it's an act. On the flip side of that, I'm still not convinced TDS is scum. He's playing what I'm taking as his normal game, and I just can't get a read on him. Not like I did the last game we played together. He hasn't done anything so blatant as he did that game, and I can't decide if it's just bad play, scummy, or scum that I'm getting off him.

Somebody give me arguments I'm wrong either way.

As expected, I see a few arguments both ways, not necessarily directed at me. I mean, I'm vain, sure, isn't everyone a little, but I know I'm not the center of the universe.

On the whole, the arguments presented come down, to my mind, pretty decisively on Toony being town. Jibes with my own thinking based solely on his reactions to the pressure over the Pufferfish vote.

Toony's reactions to the votes and questions is simply too collected. Even the best scum players get rattled, and I'm not seeing any rattling here except on Toony's cage, to which he's simply not reacting. Plus, he's offered up a role-claim if he's lynched, and I've seen Toony do just that before when he wasn't even the lynch target, so I believe he'll do it. A role-claim under those circumstances does scum no good, because... well, because. They're going to flip, and put the lie to the claim immediately. That's serious town action there, and that would make his bluff on Pufferfish even bolder.

Scum rarely play that bold and get away with it. Happens, but rarely.

The arguments against are just...weak. Or not presented at all *cough*SBC*cough*.

There wasn't really anything in defense of TheDarkStar, save his own post, which was surprisingly more wordy than his usual. He tries to give reasons, but they just come across as defensive and deflective of suspicion back to ToonyMan. He even pulls a self-meta with his noted vote flightiness.

And that's where I get stuck with a tunnel vision warning. I always see TDS as flighty and promiscuous with his vote, and so tend to dismiss that as a scum-tell with him. But when he self-metas with it, it's now referential because it becomes WIFOM. Sort of. I think.



And then I go back and have questions about the rest of that post.

Unvote. I can't in good conscience let a tie vote stand, not when I'm not 100% convinced the party I'm voting for is guilty. And Toony is acting too town for me to think it's an act. On the flip side of that, I'm still not convinced TDS is scum. He's playing what I'm taking as his normal game, and I just can't get a read on him. Not like I did the last game we played together. He hasn't done anything so blatant as he did that game, and I can't decide if it's just bad play, scummy, or scum that I'm getting off him.

Somebody give me arguments I'm wrong either way.

Here's a reason: Toony tried to get someone mislynched. While that person might have been able to respond within a short time, almost any denial on their part would have been seen as scum lying. Also, why would he care about a roleclaim as town? He also took a while to reveal that he was lying, but only after drawing questioning.

And then there's what I've done: Responded to criticism after a pressure vote. And yet, I'm the one getting voted for, while he gets to live.

Another reason:

Also, vote DarkStar because I'm not scum and his vote is by far the weakest on me (even Tiruin defends me!).

My votes might be flighty, but that is not a reason to vote for me. I still try to get rid of the scummy people, unlike Toony, who tried to get a random person dead.

Numerous problems I have with this part of this post. Aside from the general defensiveness and deflection.

One. Picking nits, maybe, but why change the color on my quoted Unvote, but not on ToonyMan's vote on you? If I were to speculate, I'd guess afraid that Toaster would have see the red Unvote and think it was your vote, not mine, but would assume you wouldn't vote for yourself. So, why then not just snip it out? Other parts of the post were snipped... I'm treading into WIFOM territory, trying to think what you're thinking when you're doing something.

Two. The use of the phrase "tried to get someone mislynched", just bugs me. There's no proof that Pufferfish/scientist is town, and Toony seemed genuinely suspicious, though I don't really remember if he stated why (not digging back, it's getting late). You seem, with this, dead set that makes ToonyMan scum, not merely scummy, and I ... fear is not quite the right word but it'll have to do for now ... fear certainty in a lynch vote without evidence or at least a strong case to back that certainty up. And you present with certainty that ToonMan is trying to lynch a townie, not just a "random player" as you play it off later.

Three. As I said above, a role-claim done the way Toony presented it is a very solid town tactic. If I'm about to get lynched as town, there's every reason for me to role-claim, especially if I have a power role. That doesn't work for a scum-bluff because they're going to flip on lynch and put the lie to their attempted role-claim.

Four. He explains why he took time in responding, yet you don't acknowledge that. Yes, it might be bullshit, he might've just been attempting to scum-lurk, but coupled with the above bits, I can't see that being the case.

All the evidence I see belies my belief that you're just playing to your meta, and instead points to you being mafia, TheDarkStar.