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[ToonyMan]

I don't really expect you to be scum Makeinu, but if SBC really flips town then statistically you have a 66% chance of being scum and with Scientist blocking one of the other two it's almost a done-deal.  I would prefer that SBC is really mafia, but if that isn't the case I hope my aim is true...

[Toaster]

Vote Count:

Elephant Parade:
Superblackcat: makeinu, Elephant Parade, ToonyMan, NativeForeigner
+!!scientist!!+:
makeinu:
ToonyMan:
NativeForeigner:

No Lynch:

Not Voting: +!!scientist!!+, Superblackcat



The catted one is brought down
Said to be too much a clown
  He is tried and shot
  Quite a heck of a lot
Too bad that he's really town


Superblackcat has been lynched!  He was a Townie (Town)


Night 4 has begun!  Night 4 will last until Wednesday, 2/5 at 11 PM EST.

[Toaster]

In the morning ToonyMan is found dead
A bullethole placed in his head
  His hand on his gun
  He's run out of fun
And gotten a faceful of lead


Makeinu is also deceased
His life force is now released
  His planning was fine
  And his schemes sublime
But now he is brought down to least


Toonyman has been killed!  He was a Vigilantie (Town).

Makeinu has been killed!  He was a Mafia JOAT (Mafia).


Day 5 has begun!  Day 5 will last until Monday 2/10 at 11 PM EST.

[Superblackcat]

Bah... look at that beauty...

[NativeForeigner]

scientist: Who did you block and why?

Looks like my second hunch was correct. Shame I didn't act on it yesterday.

[Elephant Parade]

NativeForeigner: Why are you scum? I suppose there's technically a possibility that it could be scientist, but I really don't think so. What do you think of the recent roleflips?

Spoiler: Wall of quotes (click to show/hide)

I'll buy not wanting to risk a vote tie. I'll buy the "if Tiruin is true, ToonyMan is false" logic. But what about Tiruin, especially in light of her SK flip, made you so sure that she wasn't lying?

I'd very much like to hear your reasoning, because I was pretty sure at some point in the day that was exactly the case myself.

As I said in the original post, it was more of a gut feeling I got while skimming over the boatloads of posts that were happening.

As far as the recent revelation, I was technically right. Tiruin wasn't scum. But in light of her SK flip, I'll have to reevaluate what's going on.

However, I have my doubts about scientists' claim. Primarily due to the fact that he's still alive.

@ToonyMan: I'm somewhat suspicious of NativeForeigner. Why? Because he wasted my extension. Sure, it might not have been deliberate, but I feel like it may have been a mafia ploy to reduce the number of extensions still available. I'm aware that this isn't the best reason, but I don't really have much else on either NF or SBC.

I'm kind of busy (semester finals) but the last one is Thursday. After that, I will be going over every single post and asking people some questions.

I'll refer you to this post and the one immediately after.

I'm going to be embarrassingly useless this day. Best I can do at the moment is reaffirm that I'm a vanilla townie.

For the time being, I'd like to hear scientists' speculation on why he's still alive today if he's the admitted jailkeeper.

I have the day off tomorrow. I'll reread a few choice pages and see if I can produce something useful.

Good, it got extended. I'll be posting later tonight.

-snip-

But what makes the other two scum?

makeinu: Currently, I suspect scientist for reasons previously stated. I have another vague suspicion, but I want to see how that pans out before I expand on it.

As far as what makes me not scum, I've been a little to inactive to have anything that's worth pointing out to reinforce my townhood. I had a few good interactions in the earlier days, I accurately assisted with the scum lynch (which, really, is big whoop), and I avoided tying the vote. None of that is particularly convincing or concrete, but that's really all I've got beside the fact that I know I'm town.

I certainly wanted to play effectively, but life got a lot more hectic and the game moved a lot more quickly than I anticipated. I'm giving Mafia as much time as I can right now, I'm splitting my days between several important things right now.

E is earlier in the alphabet than N

You're kidding, right?

@Makeinu:
Hmm, you make a good point.  NativeForeigner may want a Scientist lynch because he is in fact hiding his role.  And PufferFish/Scientist not making an action Night 1 is pretty suspect.

However, I'm not going to vote Scientist unless NF's explicitly states this.  That way, if we lynch Scientist and he actually is town Jailkeeper, NF is lying and I can shoot him.  But if we keep things implied I can't consider that enough to shoot.

As much as I'd love to say that and have this in the bag, I'm not hiding a power role. Not gonna lie and say otherwise for a scientist lynch because that only hurts town if he's somehow the jailkeeper.

I'm asking now if anyone would like my extension used to extend this day. I'll check again about an hour before day end. If no one speaks up, I'm letting the day end. Either way, I'll likely be coming back to vote SBC depending on how/if he responds.

NativeForeigner: Extend.

No time for actual content right now, but there's my extension as promised.

Well, we didn't exactly get a lot out of that extension. SBC hasn't said anything to sway my vote away from him.

SBC: You've got a little bit of time left. Why aren't you voting makeinu if you're sure he's scum?

Also:

If I'm town, do you mind shooting Makeinu?

If you're town? Coming from your perspective, shouldn't that be a more conclusive statement?

Your recent posts are all very short. I suspect that you were trying to appear busy without actually contributing a lot.

scientist: It's all up to you, I believe. I hope you make the right decision. Let's try to stay active until the day ends. The more we three question each other, the better your chances of lynching the correct person. What do you think of the recent roleflips?

[+!!scientist!!+]

I actually jailed nobody, I didn't see what time night ended at, for some reason I thought there were a few days for thinking through stuff. I'm far too much like my predecessor. Why they aren't killing me, though, is beyond me. My best guess is that all my hunches up until this point have been hilariously wrong. I think SBC and toonyman are scum, they turn out to be town. I think Makeinu, TDS and Tiruin are town, and that goes about as well. If I am to follow this idea, then as I have clearly stated in the past that I thought NativeForeigner was scum, he must be town. Therefore, I'll have to ask:

Elephant Parade, what do you think of my reasoning?

[Elephant Parade]

I actually jailed nobody, I didn't see what time night ended at, for some reason I thought there were a few days for thinking through stuff. I'm far too much like my predecessor. Why they aren't killing me, though, is beyond me. My best guess is that all my hunches up until this point have been hilariously wrong. I think SBC and toonyman are scum, they turn out to be town. I think Makeinu, TDS and Tiruin are town, and that goes about as well. If I am to follow this idea, then as I have clearly stated in the past that I thought NativeForeigner was scum, he must be town. Therefore, I'll have to ask:

Elephant Parade, what do you think of my reasoning?

Your reasoning involves a major logical fallacy; I forget exactly what the name of it is, but attempting to extrapolate from "perfect" statistics rarely ends well.  I suggest you go over the posts made by both me and NativeForeigner, and at the end of the day draw a conclusion from the content you find within.

[NativeForeigner]

NativeForeigner: Why are you scum? I suppose there's technically a possibility that it could be scientist, but I really don't think so. What do you think of the recent roleflips?

That's such a hilariously scummy question to ask in LYLO. That, coupled with the fact that Toonyman generally has a good track record for scumhunting leads me to believe that you're our last scumbag. Also, makeinu was trying to egg me into voting for scientist here after I admitted some vague suspicious at his livelihood. So that makes me doubt scientist's scumhood.

Additionally, assuming Toonyman's analysis of the setup here was correct (and I strongly believe it was, as both his and makeinu's analysis of the situation lined up well and described the possible setups quite well), scientist can literally not be scum. Of the four listed in that post, one flipped mafia (makeinu) and the other flipped town (SBC). That leaves only myself and EP as possible scumfolk. I know for a fact I'm town, so that leaves you, Elephant Parade.

Of course, I could be making a mistake by not fully analyzing the situation myself to make sure makeinu and Toony didn't miss anything, but I'm confident in their work considering they matched well even though they were on opposing teams. In short, I'm 97% sure EP is the last of the scum.

As for the roleflips, makeinu was my "maybe, but probably not" suspect. He plays a good game, but for me he was hitting that uncanny valley feeling. I'm just glad Toonyman was true with his aim.

+!!scientist!!+: Read my above analysis on the analysis that was previously done and tell me what you think. As for your current reasoning, I think the vote itself is dead on, but I want you to be confident in your vote.

[NativeForeigner]

Oh! Just noticed, makeinu flipped JOAT, which was stated as a necessity for Toonyman's analysis to be correct. So now I'm pretty much 100% sure on my vote.

[Elephant Parade]

NativeForeigner: Just going to vote me? Not even going to ask me a question? Rather rude of you. Scummy, too. It's almost as if you don't want more information about me to come to light.

Anyway, yeah. From your viewpoint, I'm obviously scum. But from my viewpoint, you're obviously scum. On the other hand, scientist doesn't know which one of us is telling the truth. As a result, now is not the time to be lazy and say "WELL LOGICALLY YOU'RE SCUM" since we're both logically scum to each other, and scientist doesn't know who's telling the truth.

Also, why is it a hilariously scummy question to ask in LyLo? I said that you're scum (which you just did to me) and asked a basic question to get the discussion going.

Town asks questions, NF. Scum doesn't want to ask questions, since more information means a higher chance of a new scumslip being committed, or a past one being found after being seen in a new light.

[NativeForeigner]

You asked "why are you scum?" which is a heavily loaded question. That's why it's hilariously scummy. I presented my case as asked scientist for his opinion on it. That's hardly being lazy and simply announcing you scum. I'm not asking you questions because I'm not particularly interested in what you have to say anymore. Granted, I'll answer your questions, but I don't need anymore information on you than I've already got. Scientist might have some questions, though, and he's more than welcome to ask either of us.

I provided an in-depth reasoning for my vote and asked for an analysis to get the discussion going. It's the same process, but mine is more thought out and well-executed than simply asking a loaded question and asking questions about the roleflips.

Go ahead and try to build a case against me, but don't act like I'm not promoting analysis here.

[Elephant Parade]

You asked "why are you scum?" which is a heavily loaded question. That's why it's hilariously scummy. I presented my case as asked scientist for his opinion on it. That's hardly being lazy and simply announcing you scum. I'm not asking you questions because I'm not particularly interested in what you have to say anymore. Granted, I'll answer your questions, but I don't need anymore information on you than I've already got. Scientist might have some questions, though, and he's more than welcome to ask either of us.

I provided an in-depth reasoning for my vote and asked for an analysis to get the discussion going. It's the same process, but mine is more thought out and well-executed than simply asking a loaded question and asking questions about the roleflips.

Go ahead and try to build a case against me, but don't act like I'm not promoting analysis here.

Looking back on it, it kinda was. I was trying to say something more interesting than "YOU'RE SCUM" but I could see that being viewed as a loaded question, yeah. I can assure you that it wasn't actually meant to be a loaded question.

Also, even if it was, I'm not sure how it could be as loaded as a flat-out statement of the other person being scum.

We should be giving scientist more information by asking each other questions.

Speaking of which, YOU STILL HAVEN'T ASKED ME QUESTIONS. Ask me things. I will answer. This will reveal information, thus benefiting town. If you think I'm scum, why not prove it to scientist by making me look suspicious?

Unless you know I'm not scum, and attempts to make me look scummy will end in failure.

[NativeForeigner]

There's no such thing as a "loaded statement"...

Like I said, I'm not asking you questions because I don't need anymore information from you. It's more useful for scientist to ask us the questions himself. At least with myself, I know that I get better information by asking the questions myself. All he can expect from us is to try to trick each other into slipping - either falsely or truly. That's why the questions would be better coming from his own mouth/fingertips.

Our questions are going to be completely biased. His won't.

[ToonyMan]

*lights cigarette*

Looks like this vig has smoked his last...go town.