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[Persus13]

Which of these is true? This:

I would hardly say I'm experienced. I've played a grand total of two full games on this forum,

or this:

You've been in what, three and a half games with me now?

You tell me that you've been in two mafia games here, and question Tiruin that you've been in three and a half with her. Which is true?

BOth. I have played two finished Mafia games and am currently playing two more. One of the finished games I called a half cause I replaced in D1 and got night killed that night, and Tiruin only showed up as a replacement D3.

Im very busy today, so I won't have a lot of opportunities to post in the next 12 hours, sorry.

[Tiruin]

Tiruin, So you want me to be voting someone?

Why do you want me to vote someone?

I would -prefer- if you voted someone. The hesitance to vote, for me, is a null tell--however in how you do it?

Seriously Makeinu, why are you voting yourself?

SBC: So you're still voting Makeinu despite taking back the reason you voted him. Do you still think he's scum for other reasons?

Puff: You've asked me who my top scumpicks are. How about you, who are your top scumpicks?

Sorry, I was in a hurry and forgot :<  unvote

As of now, Puffer seems the most suspicious to me.

Why did you vote Luke? Be the 2nd not Luke to vote him.

Alright Makeinu, my bad, I read your reasoning completely wrong, and assumed that you were unvoting Luke, not EP.

Either ways... Why did you not stick to your vote on EP? Luke comes back, unvotes himself. It's a tie. Usually, ties mean NL... I'm pretty sure it never means that both are killed.


Uh, Dude, it's lylo, It DOESNT MATTER if the COP Outs... WHEN WE LYNCH THE WRONG PERSON. I'm not telling the cop to out NOW. I'm saying, when the days is about to end, and the cop thinks something isn't right. HE SHOULD SPEAK UP AND SAY SOMETHING. (Or he knows something isn't right).

Anyways, I'll be gone till 4 hours from now.

Whereas I want you to vote someone because you either speak as:
> Apprehensive and unsure to vote OR
> Apprehensive and unsure to vote due to being scum.

Who do you suspect, and why? SBC
What do you make of makeinu's self-vote?
makeinu

-snip-

You don't have to explain why you voted, I understand that, it was a pressure vote. But a pressure vote can't apply pressure to a player that isn't present to BE pressured. So, please, convince me of the merit in you not having unvoted in that case?

I explain why I voted for anyone to get the point. Luke was present then, making the bolded part...illogical. I mean, heck, I'll never know why in the seven rings of hell he voted himself at all, so I stuck with the earlier presumption that he was doing a ploy...and the content of his posts also played a part with the vote.

Your...'excuse', as you lovingly put on yourself leads to the fact that you did vote, yet however remain faltering on it.
You voted yourself. Which leads to utter confusion on why in the world you're doing that!
Did you give a reason? No? None? You did, but they seemingly contradict most of whatever you ever said.
I figured.

The problem I see is this:

1) If the cop claims, and only has an Innocent claim, we're not closer to finding scum by much.

Well credibility is due where credibility is due. We have one less person to suspect! And given the context of the recent replies, scrutiny increases 100 fold, except it removes one person of being suspect, and rather gives the claimant the eye of scrutiny, or shifts the view altogether.

2) Claiming, whether the scum counter-claim or not, guarantees no report tomorrow.

2:2 left on the target list. Whether there is a tomorrow or not lies in how the game is played now.
Tell me how you see the futility of the matter, please.

Color me confused here. You missed that Luke was the Doctor?

That was general advice. >_>
Now back to you voting yourself.

Because it doesn't matter. I don't hold my concepts, as you say, based on anything others say, though it's natural to react. And at the end yesterday, I realized I wasn't sure about my target. I wanted to be, I wanted to stand firm in my conviction that EP was scum, but on reflection I couldn't.

I've already explained why I voted for myself, and I pulled it so people would stop asking why.

Oh, really now? Playing a personal grievance when the vote entails so much more on the matter? It shows who you suspect. And to detail: It shows either that you're guilty of your act and see the game at LYLO, try to commit such an effort for vague reasons.
Or.
You're town and literally vote yourself because of pity and omgwhatdidIdo. This can be held in silence to yourself because we can all repent for our actions later on, or in the least CONTINUE WHAT THE DEAD COULD NOT, OUR WINCON.
But back to the second link I said above ("really"), your first paragraph speaks of self-guilt. Nulltell? I don't think so. If you're town and are guilt-ing yourself in a public fashion, for what purpose is that? To show off to the public?

Compare your action there, then compare what you said regarding EP and/or Luke.
You're doubting too much. You think they're town? You think they're scum? How sure are you then, when the time comes to decide who is scum to lynch rather than laying down your vote to lynch.
You build a case, and ready your rifle--not to shoot, but to support yourself and wave it around like it was ever armed.
Yeah, you may be wrong--but compare it to how you've acted? Are you willing to go on the lynch when you're in doubt, or leave it to those who are willing to vote instead?
I let my vote lie. Yea, his absence did speak of some suspicion non-mafia related, but why in the world he voted himself in the first place does not bode well for my conscience. Ever.
I find you, here, to be very interesting.

Can you list a list of suspects and how much you doubt them to be scum? You did list today as MYLO--though none are invulnerable to the kill.
Perses

Persus and Tiruin are the two most experienced (on this forum anyway) players in this game. Tiruin keeps being mysteriously absent, and Persus keeps performing duties as IC and also steering the conversations to a degree.

I can't point to anything suspicious, but I think we've been neglecting the possibility that one or both are the scum we're hunting. I have to read back now.

I would hardly say I'm experienced. I've played a grand total of two full games on this forum, one of which I got NKed N1, and the other I partially caused a town loss because I was so focused on the scumminess of one player I neglected to think about other possibilities.  I'd say the most experienced players I've been with are Jim Groovestar and Toaster.

But I'll agree with you that Tiruin could be scum and that I've been doing my best to help people understand how this forum plays the game.

This is cheesy. As in, 'poke the probability with slapstick while boosting my own image' cheesy.
You'll agree, yet what do you do to find that out? You forward your own face, yet I've to inquire on how much you've learned.

Oh, okay. That's an understandable reason. Besides Luke, who was your top scumpick D1?

I would go for Elephant Parade due to his flippy-ness, but that would be an atrocity to the scumteam given that kind of ties. Either/or the case may be, the next suspect would be makeinu for his...jumpiness, though it is saved by scant few acts I see in his motives. However D1 as I said before has been fraught with newbie tells that I'm thus far confused on my targets.
Granted, I already have my target I'm pushing. I'm just not voting for him yet--what does this tell you?

You've been in what, three and a half games with me now? I vote players when they disappear and I want to hear more from them, and either say something to that effect or ask specific questions. Do you want me to drag up every time I've done this? It's not like it's close to day end either. I have over 24 hours to change my vote if I deem it necessary. And the fact is that until your last two posts you had posted fewer times in the thread than Luke. Has that all been because of RL issues?

Nope, nope I don't wanna drag it. I'm just curious how that works on your side...and no, I never carry metaknowledge with me when I play a game. It's too hazardous to the health.

Now, query. Given the suspects then, and the suspects now, how do you discern who is scum and who is town?
I'm pretty interested in your thought process.

Back to SBC:

hat reason do you think there could be in scum killing EP? He had two people lynching him (Me included, though I wouldn't of stayed on him). It seems that the scum is drawing attention to themselves with this move.


The only reason, would incriminate yourself, which would be a wifom saying that you wouldn't kill him if you were scum, and thus you couldn't be scum, because killing him would draw attention to you. Uhhh. I don't like to think about wifoms. Do you have any other reason, not including a wifom, that he may have been killeD?


Uhh, Makeinu, EP, and Tiruin, All of you answer that too please.

*sniff sniff*
I prefer not to think about WHY scum killed EP given the gist of the general notion, as subjectivity rears its ugly head as an answer--unless you have a very good process of filtering or tracing, I'm very interested on why you're bringing this up as a topic to speak about.
Meaning: Don't talk about the darn NK unless you have tangible and reasonable evidence to do so. I did not, and still refuse to, think about why EP was killed for his sake of being killed as something to track scum.

Unless you're scum yourself and somehow are gloating, which I truly doubt--the gloating, given your temperament.
In addition to the stuff above, this is what I will prefer people not to do unless they have evidence to back it up.
..Or unless we're in a regular game wherein we can discuss our abilities when we feel it right to discuss. Your call.


Puffinpuff

He made eight posts. can you tell me how this was helpful to the town in ANY WAY except for the fact that he was town?

I can give you something, for sure. Two people voted on him. That means up to two of us who voted COULD be mafia. COULD.

Or they couldn't and everyone is town. Luke seemed like dead weight >_>
What did you see in those eight posts?

Currently SuperBlackCat is my number 1 scum. You're my number 2, tied with Tiruin.

In which we are named, but where are the reasons?

This. For this round, I'm considering anyone who roleclaims cop as instant, irredeemable scum.

Interesting. Why?

As in, what do I think others think of me?

and for the last question, are you referring to Luke or my current #1 scum pick, SBC? And what do you mean by easy-newbie scum?

Yes. Basically.
As for the last question: Both, preferably, but I was talking about that blackkittycat, whom you had unvoted. Despite you saying there was 'suspicions' on him.
I mean easy-newbie scum as in those who flail around a lot. Those who..well, spit scumtells by the dozen. Who are too free-of-thought that their thought dwells more on WIFOM than of the bread and butter we subsist on as logic.



Ok I'm getting lost here. Give me a bit to organize.

[Tiruin]

Tiruin: why didn't you at least post to tell me that a tie vote is a no-lynch?

Um..well.
*checks Sprint OP*
*checks BM-Normal OP*
...Huh. I thought..I always thought that...
*edits BM-Normal OP*
...
*hangs head in shame*
I thought it was common sense :S


...I think that's all for now with nothing missed.

[Superblackcat]

Tir Tir:

Who do you suspect, and why? SBC
What do you make of makeinu's self-vote?

Uhh, I am currently voting puffer, so I obviously suspect Puffer. I'm slightly suspicious of Persus just because none of any of our attention has been on him. He seems completely town, but at the same time.... He could just be very good at impersonating town, and active lurking. I will have to go back and reread on him.

I am suspicious of you Tiruin, because, You really haven't replied much, and stayed on a vote that would not of given and goodies.
Sure, In a regular 9/2 game, kill a lurker is fine. But this is 7/2. We get 2 less MLs. There is NO point Whatsoever, to kill someone based purely off of lurking, you wasted a vote for scum, or vote to clear up a lot of information. Like I said earlier.

About MakeInU... I really don't know. He could be very well scum, or he could not be. He seems to be trying to help town, but at the same time... Not drawing attention.

Someone not drawing attention scares me. Anyone.

I prefer not to think about WHY scum killed EP given the gist of the general notion, as subjectivity rears its ugly head as an answer--unless you have a very good process of filtering or tracing, I'm very interested on why you're bringing this up as a topic to speak about.

I was talking about killing EP for his chance at being scum, and even if he wasn't scum, We would get information from his death. (A much better death than Luke I may add).

Now He is dead, just not killed by us. So I'm back to the original question. Based off of what was discussed pre n1, and the fact that night action are sent BEFORE day ends. Who do you think would kill EP. As they would only see some of the N1 discussion, before, I assume, they go to sleep.

[Tiruin]

Tir Tir:

Who do you suspect, and why? SBC
What do you make of makeinu's self-vote?

Uhh, I am currently voting puffer[...]

I am suspicious of you Tiruin, because, You really haven't replied much, and stayed on a vote that would not of given and goodies.
Sure, In a regular 9/2 game, kill a lurker is fine. But this is 7/2. We get 2 less MLs. There is NO point Whatsoever, to kill someone based purely off of lurking, you wasted a vote for scum, or vote to clear up a lot of information. Like I said earlier.

@bolded part:...is this the 'I voted Luke' thing?
Inactivity is the best thing to kill off a game. So too when a person is incomprehensible. Granted, Luke wasn't incomprehensible,
I explained why I did so--including showing the notion that self-voting is [NOT_A_GOOD_THING] to do. THinking about it, it comes off as a null tell for me, explaining two things:
> Scum don't vote themselves, so the person must be town! :O [Yeah, no. That is NOT ANY GOOD WAY OF PROVING YOURSELF TOWN. To generalize, it comes off as a cheap move.]
> Town don't vote themselves..eh, its hard to rationalize it but its illogical, in the least. In luke's case, that means RVS'ing someone on a more-than-not redundant clause after his reply, then self-voting with a vague reason and no backing--especially quite darn ANYTHING on anyone.

-Puff got Luke's posts all here-

In a real game, he'd be dead meat. Back then? He read extremely bad newbie card to me--but how would I teach if that would be the prospect, would be one thought in my mind--but still ambivalent on whether town or scum. To be honest, it read town to me given his wording, but I would be firstly damned before I give off the idea that 'self-voting is a towntell'. Oh, and given the limit of time and me seeing the vote given the timecount back then. I could not extend. I could not do anything otherwise.

Though to be honest, he had a towntell. A huge one that I only see when looking back and thinking about it. He didn't tie the vote.
I'll leave that for thought, but I have to point that you seem to be judging based on what we know -now- instead of what we knew -before-. Wherein the 'we' = Town, to emphasize.

About MakeInU... I really don't know. He could be very well scum, or he could not be. He seems to be trying to help town, but at the same time... Not drawing attention.

Someone not drawing attention scares me. Anyone.

So you're unsure...yes?
Question him. Or has any mode of questioning from you resulted in nebulous conclusions?

I was talking about killing EP for his chance at being scum, and even if he wasn't scum, We would get information from his death. (A much better death than Luke I may add).

Now He is dead, just not killed by us. So I'm back to the original question. Based off of what was discussed pre n1, and the fact that night action are sent BEFORE day ends. Who do you think would kill EP. As they would only see some of the N1 discussion, before, I assume, they go to sleep.

@Bolded part: ...I can't fully understand the early part; the one in purple doesn't...parse well. He flipped town. Is it connected with the 'and even if he wasn't scum' in any way?
@Orange part: How? at the first sentence. Why? At the one in parenthesis.
@2nd bolded part: "Yes he is dead, and just not killed by us. What's your point? That is what happened, and to say otherwise is foolish...erm, excuse my wording, but that is the best thought that came up to describe it."
@3rd bolded part: *checks back, then sees OP*
Ahhh. Now I get part of what your basis is..though you need to work on your formatting//wording, it's somewhat confusing and the basis isn't clear. Scum have to choose their kill in the day.
...
...
I still stand by what I mean before. It is trivial, and hopeless to speculate on something that we would probably never know until post-game when the scumchat/deadchat is revealed. Your sentence I highlighted in green..doesn't make much sense.

You really do seem scummy, but my intuition tells me otherwise. 'Tis something in your wording that eggs me on 'he's newbie'. And not newbie-scummyscum.

Anyway, please do answer the questions, thank you.

[Persus13]

Also, Persus, What reason do you think there could be in scum killing EP? He had two people lynching him (Me included, though I wouldn't of stayed on him). It seems that the scum is drawing attention to themselves with this move.


The only reason, would incriminate yourself, which would be a wifom saying that you wouldn't kill him if you were scum, and thus you couldn't be scum, because killing him would draw attention to you. Uhhh. I don't like to think about wifoms. Do you have any other reason, not including a wifom, that he may have been killeD?

Anything talk involving Night Kills is usually WIFOM. So no.

Persus: What do you think is your most scummy action thus far into this game.

I'm sorry, but I don't keep a list of actions by myself I find scummy. The point of the game is to find scum by looking for scummy actions, but I know I'm not scum, and so I don't really care if I look scummy. If you want to look through my posts, this link is the lurker tracker I like to use as it shows posts and vote history.

Bleh, I have to go. More later.

[notquitethere]

The day seemed to drag on longer, and with the high concentration of lead trinkets carried by the theocrats it was distinctly possible that time was in fact slowing down.

Vote Count
------------------------
makeinu - 
Persus13 - 
Pufferfish -Superblackcat
Superblackcat - Pufferfish, makeinu
Tiruin - Persus13
 
Not Voting - Tiruin

Day ends Monday 3 PM GMT. Those with roles, send me your actions via PM in the next 15.5 hours.

[Persus13]

Persus:
Further, you quoted and commented on Tiruin's thoughts about the deaths and role-flips, but no comment on this:

...Well, I am very disappointed in Luke, to tell the honest truth. He could've invested more time, or at least given anything on what was happening to him IRL so we can judge it more. I mean, if anything is holding him up IRL, then he should say so lest the crude notion of 'I'm lurking (...despite the votes being on him)' stays.
..I was apprehensive on Luke's case given his last post as I was online for that day end but I couldn't let my vote lie and withdraw it.

That part of Tiruin's post really bothers me, I've mentioned it twice now, and you have no comment for it. Why?

I know she hasn't had a chance to answer to that, I hope she does soon, because I really want to know why, if she didn't actually suspect Luke, she let him die.

Hmm, I must have missed that. I'm not sure I understand what the bolded part means.

Tiruin: Can you explain the meaning of the bolded part please? Were you unable or unwilling to unvote Luke?

Perses
Granted, I already have my target I'm pushing. I'm just not voting for him yet--what does this tell you?

My guess is that you want to vote SBC because you are focused on him a lot. Why aren't you voting. Maybe because you are trying to trap him?

Now, query. Given the suspects then, and the suspects now, how do you discern who is scum and who is town?

Well, there are 4 people. Two are town, two are scum. At the moment I doubt SBC and Puff are a team because they've been at loggerheads for a while. Then again, this was the same logic that led me to believe you were town last game. You and Puff seem very shifty at the moment. Puff has been hunting targets that have seemed scummy, but for the wrong reasons. Makeinu and Luke both have seemed scummy, but for easily explainable and simple reasons, and the fact that Puff prevented an extension on D1 while at the same time trying to get lynched still seems fairly scummy to me. Then there's you. Despite having very few posts, you've come across as shifty to me. I can't exactly nailed down why, but you've been doing stuff like attacking SBC for a subject I brought up for instance. However, it's Pufferfish I think is more likely to be scum and possibly your scum partner. I think you being his scum partner more likely than makeinu and definitely more likely than SBC.

Also, why are you attacking SBC for not voting someone while you yourself are doing the same thing? That smells of hypocrisy to me.

Makeinu: I while back you said something about how you would have let the vote be tied if you knew it caused a NL. That wouldn't have been a good idea and would have caused at least two votes on you today, if not an immediate reaction. NL is fine if everyone agrees to it, but if not everyone agrees and someone cause it to happen, then they're usually attacked for being scum.

[Persus13]

I'm forgetting something, but I can't think of what it could be.

[Superblackcat]

Makeinu: Could you tell me why you are voting me?

Looking back at your reasons... One of them is because I said EP instead of Persus (Or whoever I was supposed to say)

And Another one was that you thought I posted something... where Infact Persus did.


Also, I'd like to point out that I AM voting Puffer.

[makeinu]

Makeinu: Could you tell me why you are voting me?

I had reasons to suspect you as scum. I think that Persus has the situation summed up well.

Unvote.

Vote Tiruin.

[makeinu]

Makeinu: I [sic] while back you said something about how you would have let the vote be tied if you knew it caused a NL. That wouldn't have been a good idea and would have caused at least two votes on you today, if not an immediate reaction. NL is fine if everyone agrees to it, but if not everyone agrees and someone cause it to happen, then they're usually attacked for being scum.

Yes, but if I had left my vote, then Luke would have caused the NL to happen by pulling his vote.

Good to know, however.

[Tiruin]

Makeinu: Could you tell me why you are voting me?

I had reasons to suspect you as scum. I think that Persus has the situation summed up well.

Unvote.

Vote Tiruin.

Wherein you hop on his conclusion more than anyone elses and fail to regard your target's words to you?
>_>
"...Really."

Well, there are 4 people. Two are town, two are scum. At the moment I doubt SBC and Puff are a team because they've been at loggerheads for a while. Then again, this was the same logic that led me to believe you were town last game. You and Puff seem very shifty at the moment. Puff has been hunting targets that have seemed scummy, but for the wrong reasons. Makeinu and Luke both have seemed scummy, but for easily explainable and simple reasons, and the fact that Puff prevented an extension on D1 while at the same time trying to get lynched still seems fairly scummy to me. Then there's you. Despite having very few posts, you've come across as shifty to me. I can't exactly nailed down why, but you've been doing stuff like attacking SBC for a subject I brought up for instance. However, it's Pufferfish I think is more likely to be scum and possibly your scum partner. I think you being his scum partner more likely than makeinu and definitely more likely than SBC.

So this is Persus' reason. It is lacking. "Doing stuff" is as nebulous as a subtle poke on someone being scum--something without conviction or concern, but I hold Persus with his word given how he explains himself there.
But if he's scum, do note that its a subtle tell he's giving out there. Lightly poking people then saying they're scummy for...reasons. [note the ellipsis].
Uh huh.
Also, you seem to agree that my few posts equal shifty without adding your own word? I've to ask Persus why he's being so lightheaded on that matter.
But you? You jump on and say 'HIS REASONS ARE MINE'. That's what I can glean as far as you say without saying quite anything. Now that's the start of a bandwagon if I ever did see one, to say crudely.

Makeinu: I [sic] while back you said something about how you would have let the vote be tied if you knew it caused a NL. That wouldn't have been a good idea and would have caused at least two votes on you today, if not an immediate reaction. NL is fine if everyone agrees to it, but if not everyone agrees and someone cause it to happen, then they're usually attacked for being scum.

Yes, but if I had left my vote, then Luke would have caused the NL to happen by pulling his vote.

Good to know, however.

NL?

Let's put this into the mind: Are you fully believing Persus given your statement on 'he summed it up well'?
What if he's scum? What then?

[Gentlefish]

Puffer:

-snip-

To be the 2nd person to jump onto a band wagon... usually is someone trying not to be noticed. That raises a red flag. Especially if the post doesn't include much information so that people skim over it. Yours did not. It was very short compared to your usual posts, and it addressed two people, Make and Luke. Two questions, and less pressuring on Makeinu. I would've skimmed over it if I wasn't looking for it.

Don't you think by killing a more scummy, More viable person... would've given you more information?

I was not bandwagoning. The reason I was on MakeInu's case was because he was quiet. He stopped being quiet and I moved on to Luke. Who, as you have now seen, while being the doctor made eight posts while he was still alive and playing.

And you wanted me to lynch EP, who ended up NK'd? It would have been nice maybe, if we lynched him and that caused a no-NK. But we learned from EP's death regardless, as you wanted.

This. For this round, I'm considering anyone who roleclaims cop as instant, irredeemable scum.

So you force our cop into not outing... basically making him totally useless. Why? Roleclaiming is a viable, and in fact very useful tactic in mafia. If only more people used it. I very do not like this sentence.

Puffer: Why do you think that it is such a bad tactic.

Too many scummy things has built up. I've already said how I didn't like some of his posts earlier, now it's gotten worse.

When you compare Luke and Squill... Wait you can't. It's two different people. Squill was actually active lurking, Luke was just gone... Probably asleep. I don't know why he didn't come check this. But I can't really. I don't stalk him. (Or maybe I do ).

Why is it a bad tactic? Chances are he checked a town. if we lynch that town, by all means CLAIM. If he's still silent, he hasn't checked a scum, or maybe he even checked EP. An outing of the copguarantees his death in the game for no reason right now especially if he checked town and we don't lynch that suspect.

And yes you can ABSOLUTELY compare them. Both lurked. MakeInu said Luke was online while he wasn't posting so he wasn't just off the forums. If I remember right. And I will hunt down that post and correct myself if you as me to. But I'm pretty sure he said so.

Puffinpuff

He made eight posts. can you tell me how this was helpful to the town in ANY WAY except for the fact that he was town?

I can give you something, for sure. Two people voted on him. That means up to two of us who voted COULD be mafia. COULD.

Or they couldn't and everyone is town. Luke seemed like dead weight >_>
What did you see in those eight posts?

I saw a threat, someone trying to go below the radar. Not the doctor he was.

Currently SuperBlackCat is my number 1 scum. You're my number 2, tied with Tiruin.

In which we are named, but where are the reasons?

This. For this round, I'm considering anyone who roleclaims cop as instant, irredeemable scum.

Interesting. Why?

I do not want the cop to reveal himself yet. If he has scum, he wouldn't roleclaim to do so, he'd be tunneling with what he has so as to stay as much around as possible. He would try to convince others using what knowledge they have and not telling them to believe them based off of a PM he got from the moderator that he cannot share to prove his point.

As in, what do I think others think of me?

and for the last question, are you referring to Luke or my current #1 scum pick, SBC? And what do you mean by easy-newbie scum?

Yes. Basically.
As for the last question: Both, preferably, but I was talking about that blackkittycat, whom you had unvoted. Despite you saying there was 'suspicions' on him.
I mean easy-newbie scum as in those who flail around a lot. Those who..well, spit scumtells by the dozen. Who are too free-of-thought that their thought dwells more on WIFOM than of the bread and butter we subsist on as logic.

Well, I can tell Persus wants people to think I'm scum and that you're my partner and that SBC is hitching on for the ride.

As for why I say who but not why as to my scum picks, that's already changed, and Persus has become equal to SBC in my scumlist.

SBC has been dodgy this whole game, not answering why he's not quoting, and giving vague answers on anything he does bother to answer.

Persus has now made some interesting claims on you and SBC's hopped RIGHT on to those claims, as you have so eloquently put. And I mean that. You're very good with words. Right now, that ties Persus to SBC in my book.

[makeinu]

NL: No Lynch.

Right, so.

There are a limited number of possibilities for scum pairs left in the game. Mathematically, 5 players gives (5x4) 20 combinations, if we assume any of the remaining players are equally likely to be scum.

But we can't assume that. Two players know they are scum; three know they are Town. And it's only those three that have to make the calculations.

So here's mine. First, I eliminate myself, naturally.

There are two pairs I'll eliminate outright.

1) Superblackcat and Pufferfish.
2) Tiruin and Persus13.

In both cases, there's too much antagonism publicly. Unless there's a bus going by, I don't see both of either of those pairs being scum.

That leaves, then, only four other combinations:

1) Superblackcat and Tiruin.
2) Superblackcat and Persus13.
3) Pufferfish and Tiruin.
4) Pufferfish and Persus13.

Randomly choosing, there's a 1 in 4 chance of picking the scum pair. Randomly choosing, there's a 1 in 4 chance of picking a solo scum, which reduces choosing the scum pair in 1 in 2.

But we don't have to choose randomly. We can choose logically, and that's simplified by the first elimination round.

If both pairs eliminated cannot be scum together, then one is scum and one is town from each pair. All we have to do is pick the one from each pair that is scummier, through logic and inference.

So, pair one: Superblackcat and Pufferfish.

Between these two, who is acting scummier? My money was on Pufferfish D1, hands down, even though I had some strong feelings regarding Superblackcat's seeming evasion-by-way-of-not-quoting tactic of not answering or really asking any questions. He still quotes badly, but I keep getting this strong feeling of noob, not scum, in his methods and thinking.

Pufferfish, on the other hand, still gives me a lingering feeling of scum, and I can't quite put my finger on why. For one, trying too hard to keep the cop from coming forward. Now, he does have some good points, namely that if the cop's target last night was EP, and they weren't allowed to change targets, the cop coming forward doesn't do us any good. Statistically, that's a 1 in 6 chance; logically, there's no easily calculating it, because then you have to delve into the mind of the cop.

I can tell you what I would have done in those shoes. At the end of the day, it was safe to assume either EP or Luke was dead from lynch, so neither of those presented a good cop target. I would have eliminated them as choices and instead picked one of the vote-layers for either target. So, to my mind, it makes sense that the cop should come forward with his report, clearing or incriminating one of the remaining five.

With that logic, I have then to assume Pufferfish has thought similarly, and is concerned at what the cop will reveal. That seems scummy to me.

Pair two: Tiruin and Persus13.

Of these, I feel a simpler case can be made. Tiruin has been mostly evasive and accusatory in her responses. I don't know if that's her norm in these games, but it's coming across to me as a strong scum-tell right now, and that bothers me.

Persus13, on the other hand, has been clear and cogent in his responses, not accusatory. Again, norm? I don't know or care, but right now, I'm pulling a strong Town vibe.

So, my inclination, based on intuition and logic together, is that the scum pair is Pufferfish and Tiruin, and I'm voting accordingly.


There's one possibility I have left out, regarding Pufferfish and his advice to the cop staying silent: he's the cop, and he chose to follow EP last night, garnering no information that the flip didn't already reveal. I have left that out deliberately, because of his ever-changing reasons why the cop should stay silent. First, it's:

This. For this round, I'm considering anyone who roleclaims cop as instant, irredeemable scum.

Then, later, after being questioned why, it's devolved to this:

Why is it a bad tactic? Chances are he checked a town. if we lynch that town, by all means CLAIM. If he's still silent, he hasn't checked a scum, or maybe he even checked EP. An outing of the copguarantees his death in the game for no reason right now especially if he checked town and we don't lynch that suspect.

That doesn't strike me as a cop trying to hide. Maybe if he'd stuck to his guns when questioned, thus demonstrating in some way a willingness to counter-claim if a scum false-claimed cop, I'd believe that. I think instead that he considered that strategy and backed down from it under pressure, with nothing to back it up.


Tiruin: if I'm wrong, and we all vote according to my logic, then the Town loses. That's a risk every Town faces, that they get outsmarted by the scum. We sure outsmarted ourselves yesterday.

So give me a convincing case that I'm wrong. Please.