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[~Neri]

The planet the game takes place upon, and if they come across the ship(s) dropping pods or just crash into the planet in general

[GreatWyrmGold]

Well, such a thing isn't terribly likely, since this is a pretty isolated world. Hence, the following things would need to happen:
1. A civilian or terrorist would need to come to the planet, which requires one of the following:
-The individual would need to want to come here AND have the ability to do so
-The individual would need to have the ability to come here AND the ability to somehow end up here on accident
2. There would need to be some kind of military ship shooting the civilian/terrorist, which requires BOTH of the following:
-A military ship in the region, which requires:
--A reason to keep such a ship in the region after depositing the convicts
--Enough resources to keep the ship (and crew!) functioning, at a low enough cost to be less than the balance
-A reason to shoot the civilian/terrorist ship, which also implies:
--No reason NOT to shoot the ship (or only minor ones outweighed by the reasons TO shoot it)

In the second scenario you described, 2 could be replaced with a shocking inability to use spacecraft, but in such a case the pilot would probably not have been able to leave the planet s/he started in.

[GiglameshDespair]

GWG, I think he meant the civvie showed up as the military was dropping off the exiles, and thus shot the civvie down to keep it secret, not that the military just had a ship sitting about up there.

[~Neri]

Autopilot gets them into space and it fails in transit?

Military ship could just have orders to disable any nonmilitary ship detected to prevent convicts from getting offplanet, if it is a small starhopper transport then it could run with a single person and the autopilot. The guy could be planning on rescuing someone, the ship could have had a transit failure and come out too close to the grav well and been disabled, the military could be required to maintain a presence in the system, or it just could be bad timing, and if the ship was close enough to the planet when it finished transit then it could crash before the atmosphere completely leaked.

[GreatWyrmGold]

Autopilot gets them into space and it fails in transit?

I don't think you understand how hard it is to accidentally hit a planet. As always (when dealing with an issue that can be addressed with this specific quote), Douglas Adams said it best:

Space is big. You just won't believe how vastly, hugely, mind- bogglingly big it is. I mean, you may think it's a long way down the road to the chemist's, but that's just peanuts to space.

Side note: Would such a quote be considered the best response if it hadn't been put in a famous sci-fi book? Is there any way to know for sure?

Military ship could just have orders to disable any nonmilitary ship detected to prevent convicts from getting offplanet,

Hardly intelligent orders. Especially since spacecraft would
A. not be in the manufacturing capability of these people for decades
B. be easily-detectable at extreme distances, allowing easy identification of origin.

if it is a small starhopper transport then it could run with a single person and the autopilot.

...but would have minimal ability to store supplies or house hydroponics. Among other issues.

The guy could be planning on rescuing someone,

Have you heard of "Opsec"? The military has, and it would be in full force here.

the ship could have had a transit failure and come out too close to the grav well and been disabled...

All the more reason for the military not to indiscriminately shoot at any ships near the planet!
P.S. See "Space Is Big" for reasons why this is incredibly unlikely for any transit that is capable of going anywhere of note without hitting a gravity well first.

the military could be required to maintain a presence in the system

By whom?

or it just could be bad timing

"You'd better watch out for hungry T. rexes. With bad timing, one could eat you!"
Actually, this makes MORE sense than your argument, because there actually is a bad time that would make these chances measurably large (the late Cretaceous).

and if the ship was close enough to the planet when it finished transit then it could crash before the atmosphere completely leaked.

...?

[~Neri]

If the ship was damaged as it left ftl transit, if it was close enough to the planet, it could crash before the atmosphere leaked.

If someone is planning on getting somebody off planet, then it doesn't matter if the ship is within manufacturing capabilities of the peeps on planet, it simply would't matter as the ship is already built.

Of course space is big, that's what makes it unlikely.

[TealNinja]

GWG, I think he meant the civvie showed up as the military was dropping off the exiles, and thus shot the civvie down to keep it secret, not that the military just had a ship sitting about up there.

The planet isn't exactly a secret.  It is a secret in that nobody other than the military know about it, but that's because there's no reason for anyone else to know about it.  It could simply be too expensive for anyone other than military to travel there; maybe the fuel costs for a civilian ship to travel here and back would be greater than the civilian ship's capacity.  It doesn't require very much before it's prohibitively expensive for anyone (other than military) to travel anywhere that isn't colonized space.  The military would also not care about a civilian ship because of that information.  A stowaway is one thing, someone cruising around is another.  In the official sense, the military isn't doing anything "dishonourable;" they're committing forces to a planet that is dangerous in a way that jeopardizes the least lives.  One ship's visual recordings would hardly stand up against anything the military could provide, so they certainly wouldn't win in a media war, even if someone believed that ship somehow.

[GiglameshDespair]

Oh, yeah. I wasn't agreeing, I was just clarifying what (I believed) Kevak meant to GWG, as he seemed to have a different understanding.

[GreatWyrmGold]

If the ship was damaged as it left ftl transit, if it was close enough to the planet, it could crash before the atmosphere leaked.

Which leads to many questions, like how it got close enough to this planet and why the atmosphere would be leaking.

If someone is planning on getting somebody off planet, then it doesn't matter if the ship is within manufacturing capabilities of the peeps on planet, it simply would't matter as the ship is already built.

Which leads to the other questions. (And, of course, the question of why they went for the killshot. And how a one-man starhopper could rescue anyone.)

Of course space is big, that's what makes it unlikely.

Not just unlikely, effectively impossible.

[~Neri]

I have decided that we are overthinking this.

Edit: nother thought, It all really comes down to Teal's decision.

[GreatWyrmGold]

I have decided that we are overthinking this.

I warned you.

[TCM]

Mm-hm. Just keep thinking you're amusing/meaningful/whatever.

[GiglameshDespair]

Mm-hm. Just keep thinking you're amusing/meaningful/whatever.

Oh yeah. For the record, TCM, I wouldn't uguu~ like that. I'm far too sugoi to kawaii in such a manner.

[~Neri]

I have decided that we are overthinking this.

I warned you.

Yes, yes you did.

[GreatWyrmGold]

Mm-hm. Just keep thinking you're amusing/meaningful/whatever.

I have an excellent meaning.
"I told you earlier that people on Bay12 have a tendency towards overthinking. Therefore, it's a bit surprising that you didn't expect such until now."