@
All:
K, back.
tldr: This post's for all because in this I highlight the evidence I have seen that Kleril and Superblackcat are both Scum, considered singly and together. I am extremely convinced of this assessment. I am even more certain of Kleril than of Superblackcat, but I am extremely sure of both. My vote has been changed to Kleril. I ask the rest of us, whom I now feel are all Town, for consideration of this evidence and urge more active behavior... ESPECIALLY if you don't agree. I'd rather not stay wrong if I am wrong.So ends tldr, return to your lurking if you must, post proper follows.
I know why I was mostly absent for the last couple of days – what’s up with us as a group, and in most of our cases for more than two days?
I’m going to assume that our new joiner and everyone who was behind the times as of Monday has had a chance to read and catch up. Why almost no one is posting is beyond me – sure I understand that busy happens. But for sooooooo long? Come on, guys. Actively play most of the days, or actively seek replacement, yeah. Something like that.
Anyhoo, maybe the reason why we’re all so quiet is that the majority of us who do care and are actively involved are ready to move past Day 1! I’m going to proceed with that assumption – though I still, for now, remain willing to support further extensions…. But if this is going to be the level of activity I see overall when we extend next that might be the last one I agree with.
So:
Down to business.
Imp: What are you suspicions, besides rolepgeek (who, if I got it right, you are voting)?
Hehehehe Deathsword, thanks for the giggle! This is only kinda answer to Deathsword – I’d be writing this tonight even without this question, because it seems time for it now. But it does answer it.
First, I want to talk about
Lukeinator.
Luke, if you happen to be a young kid, you’re playing fine. You may not be ready for another game of Mafia for a bit, and you really were not ready for this one. This game really requires more than you seem able to give it yet. That’s fine – nothing wrong with you or Mafia, it’s just not time yet. If you happen to not be a kid, Luke, well done. A teenager or adult playing like you? Total waste of space in the game, Town or Scum; but you’ve got me convinced that you’re probably a kid. I tried to encourage activity, I tried to interact to trigger activity (as have others), and I tried to pressure you into activity. All attempts have failed, and I’m done with you, for now.
You would be my top and first Scum pick in most games I can imagine. The way you play is a shield and any Scum trying to lie low can stand tall and still be fully hidden by your giant shadow of young-child-like inactivity. I meant it, when I said that I’d be glad to see you dead, even if you are Town, because of how you are playing. Others have agreed.
And if I had no-, little-, or weak-sense of who the Scum were, you’d have to die, and first. As is, your play still deserves to be lynched. (That’s why, if you are a kid, you shouldn’t play again for a bit, until you’re ready to play differently. Again, it’s not you, it’s just this is like Calculus or something; people who aren’t ready shouldn’t join the class, and if they do, they have to fail, so you don’t join until you’re ready).
But in this specific game I actually do feel highly convinced that both Scum have shown themselves. If that’s true, you’re clean, Luke. You’re playing terribly badly, but you’re Town playing terribly badly – because there’s only two Scum and if I’m right, you happen not to be one of them. Now, if I’m wrong about who the Scum are, then you’re VERY very much my next choice. In fact, you’ve played so very badly that there’s nothing you can possibly do to save yourself – even if you start playing better at some later point in this game, why that’s just going to make you look Scummier because it shows you played badly to begin with on purpose.
Team, here’s why I prefer us not to lynch Lukeinator today: 1) I think he’s the third Scummiest player in our game, and his tells are only of omission – I believe the other two have both made tells of commission which are far more damning. We have two better targets I would strongly prefer to see lynched first. 2) Luke has said so little that I believe lynching him will reveal only his alignment – Great if he’s Scum because it’s great period to lynch Scum, but useless if he’s Town; due to the content of his posts he is the least useful player to get a confirmed result of Town on. I could be wrong, and I’d like to be corrected if my reasoning is faulty.
But to me he’s just the third scummiest; I think we have two better targets to string up.
Superblackcat is my second top Scum pick. I think there is about an 85% likelihood that he is Scum, and feel about 70% sure I am right in my assessment of him and his play.
Kleril is my top Scum pick. I think there is about a 96% likelihood that he is Scum, and feel about 90% sure that I am right in my assessment of him and his play.
This is my assessment of
Kleril, and his links to Superblackcat:
1) He was the first to speak of something odd about Superblackcat’s
unusual first post, saying “
Interesting choice of pronoun there, bud. There something we should know?” Kleril never followed up on this – never even answered
Mr.Zero’s “Even though you asked a little bit more than blackcat, you didn't actively pursue
this. Why so? Aren't you curious?”
Note it seems unlikely that he totally missed it – combined with Mr.Zero’s question about his reaction to Cat was also a question about what bandwagon Kleril called me on, and also a question about why Kleril hadn’t voted for me on it. Following post is Deathsword’s vote on Kleril, his {voice} clarifying that what I’d done wasn’t a bandwagon, then speaking again as a player and challenging Kleril’s lack of a vote with his words of suspicion.
Kleril responds with a vote on me and an affirmation that I came “
after Deathsword after a pressure vote. Rule of thumb the person following that is scum” despite what the others have said about what a bandwagon is, but he ignores completely the question about Cat; he never revisits it, even as others continue to talk about suspicion of Cat, talk about that specific post of Cat’s, explore Cat’s claimed philosophy… Kleril has no interest in Cat, despite his original words about Cat having being suspicious. Even when Kleril claims to be using me as some sort of
touchstone, Kleril STILL doesn’t have anything to say about Cat, even though he does finally (
after again having been challenged about not using his vote) vote for Luke after Luke has gained four other votes.
2) Recently, Kleril has this interesting dynamic going with me. He says weird things about his own thoughts like how “
completely convinced” he is that I am Town; that “
all my thoughts on who's town and who's scum are built off the foundation that at least one person is town, them being you.”. Scum have no doubt about who else is and isn’t Town. Additionally, a Scum knows he or she is not Town themself. I believe this cannot be Town reasoning.
3) Kleril’s eventual explanation about his pursuit of my bandwagoning seems tuned to my statements of my perceptions, and seems to me like an attempt tuned after the fact to allay my suspicions. On examination it happens to seem highly implausible as truth – unless he had little interest in the votecounts each day, which seems Scummy to me as well. Everyone should recognize at a glance when they place a vote and the votecount shows it wrong. Scum have different reasons to check the votecount than Town, and might not even bother to truly look at it until they think it’s going to show something interesting to them.
I’ve already made a case against Superblackcat. Two and a quarter cases, actually, the
first one where I discuss his original scummy play based on everything I’d seen up to that point; the ‘
quarter case’ where I try to reduce the pressure upon Superblackcat – not because I am a Scum-loving weakling, before anyone wonders – but because I would prefer to catch actual current-role Scum, not weak players who make one or many mistakes and have no real idea how to defend themselves, and have happened to have been given a Town role – and believing I have recognized him (or her) as a player unable to defend himself well I wished to invite him to play with less stress, showing though either words (the poorer choice) or though genuine and comprehensible Town play (the much more convincing method) that he was innocent. After all, having –identified a Scum-, if I had at that point, he’s already a belled Superblackcat. If I’m wrong about him, I want him showing it so I can decide if he’s actually Scum or not. If I’m right about it – well, given the mistakes he already made, there would probably be quite a few more, and more clear, tells.
And there have been – thus my
second full case about Superblackcat, made –despite- my desire to lower the pressure upon him (her?) because
what my second full case is based on I see Superblackcat make a really clear error. Despite the distance between Superblackcat and everyone up to this point, as of his ‘summing it up’ post that I base my second case on, he shows his connection to Kleril. For one, he agrees with what Kleril says about me – though it’s not clear if he’s agreeing with Kleril’s most recent post (
Imp is certainly Town) or his second most recent post (
Imp is rule of thumb Scum). Either way, despite this agreement I somehow don’t make his list of top Town or top Scum
Who does make his three lists is interesting. Top Town is Squill, because “I like his reasoning thus far, and the way he responded to me does not sound like mafia. Mafia wouldn't care if I was self preserving”
Interestingly, this is almost identical to Kleril’s “
Squill - He's my top town. He posts little, but does so frequently, and all of his contributions are valuable. He holds very little self interest, and serves the town well at opportune times.” and “I trust Squill because they've said the perfect things at the perfect times, and are swinging this game in favour of the town.
All posts make it clear where their loyalties lie.”
But as of the point both these players start to make this assertion, Squill’s only made 9 posts. This spoiler sums up these 9 posts that Superblackcat and Kleril really like the reasoning of:
1st answering questions, promising to ask some at 'some point' (which has still not come! I cry lies! But Superblackcat and Kleril cry top Town)
2nd answering questions, reacting to a Vote, promising to stick the game out, and responding to a challenge of lurking
3rd correcting an error in the 2nd post
4th (after a motivational speech) answering a question, asking that questioner 1 question back. (sure it was a great question, a question I found personally useful because of how it was answered - but still.... one question only... one person only)
5th Asking a question to clarify a question asked
6th Answering half of a question, stating more time needed to answer other half.
7th Chiding Superblackcat for self preservation
8th A somewhat jocular and two line analysis of a portion of game play not directly involving Squill himself (didn't involve Superblackcat or Kleril either).
9th Answering the other half of the question.
Superblackcat's top Scum is Mr.Zero, for weird original RVS questions (He complained about –everyone’s- questions initially, not singling out Mr.Zero’s (though Kleril did); he’s asked “@Deathsword, enlighten me. What is the point of asking questions such as: What is your first mafia game? or things along the lines.” And answered “@Rolepeek No, but I think the questions should be relevant to the game, instead of random questions like you guys are asking, and the massive amounts of questions.” – in general, he doesn’t like anyone’s questions.
But his other reason given for voting Mr.Zero was “then blew this [list your top town and FOS] question off, while showing that he saw it, seems like He is trying to hide who he wants dead.” If Superblackcat believes Scum try to hide who they want dead, AND if he agrees with Kleril about me, then my name should be in Town or in Scum, depending on which opinion of Kleril’s he is agreeing with. Makes me feel ‘hidden from the list’, but Town don’t have much reason for this.
Otherwise, his SECOND top scum pick is our now gone Griffinpup, absent all game (that means shame on Griff, but how can that make him seem the second most likely Scum? Unless you have a solid sense of all the other 7 players and deeply believe all of them but one to be Scum (or know all 7 of them are Town, because you are Scum)… but if Superblackcat believes this, then he should have made that belief very clear in this post – he doesn’t say it at all.
And his THIRD scum pick has a reason, “No activity after being voted... Seems kinda like lurk...” which he changes after posting to “My bad, Deathsword became inactive 2days and 8 hours ago [including weekend time], However, not directly after vote. He became inactive after me and Imp had large walls of text.” Superblackcat’s sole reason given for thinking Deathsword Scum changed. But if this reason changed, Superblackcat expresses no awareness of his suspicion changing.
And then he has an ‘Others’ category. Having talked about 4 players as Town/Scum, he speaks only about one as being an ‘others’: Kleril. Superblackcat says “kleril doesn't seem scum, but He hasn't had enough activity of the late for me to tell...” (At this point, Kleril has made 6 posts) Doesn’t bother to put anyone else in the Others category; follows this statement about Kleril with “I agree with what kleril said”.
Note the sudden focus on Kleril. The claim he doesn’t think Kleril’s Scum, but apparently not sure enough to say Town, he doesn’t give me any impression he’s been closely following anyone prior to this in the game, but now he agrees with Kleril, without any specifics given.
As of his ‘self defense’ post, he may have started paying close attention to Mr.Zero and myself(“two most active people in this game is after me”); for sure by his ‘top picks’ post he is, especially to me, and also suddenly to Kleril; But where’d this close attention to Kleril come from? Why this sudden shift in tone, attitude, focus, and styles of posting, which occurred for both Kleril and Superblackcat on the same day, in posts placed two hours apart from each others?
I am convinced these changes came from Scum chat. I am convinced Kleril and Superblackcat are our Scum.UnvoteWhat I am not convinced of, is which one to hang first?Ropes have two ends. Course, it’s totally unfair to hang both at once. But ropes –do- have two ends.
I am more certain of
Kleril than Superblackcat, though I am certain of both. And I am even more certain of both of them as a connected pair, because I think that the odds of there being multiple hints of interconnection between two scummy players which I cannot find grounds for in the posts I can see more than suggests that there are posts I cannot see.
Sadly, that makes me view the rest of you as essentially confirmed Town. Even the worst of you, I really think you’re Town worst. I can go through the motions, and I’m interested still and all – but until I see that I’m wrong about one or both of these being Scum… I’m so convinced that I don’t have much drive to hunt y’all anymore.
I’m so convinced I don’t even really feel driven to question –them- anymore. I tried to get them to prove their innocence, but they just keep looking Scummier.
However, wow Town. Where’s your spirits? Where’s your drives? Where’s your activity? I could be wrong. Worse, I could be Scum. I know, the Scum know, but do –you- really know? Really? Cause you’re acting kinda like it, some of you. Or like you just don’t care.
If I’m right, and we basically stop hunting now – I will leave this game with a very strong feel of three players. A weak but acceptable to me (for day 1 at least) feel of three others, and no real sense of 2 of you.
If I’m wrong… there’s still one or two Scum left to find. Come ON guys. Especially if you think there’s any chance I could be wrong, WORK to finish this puzzle. If I’m wrong – we CANNOT afford to wait.
Remember this is a learning game. Come on guys,
get up and take some action! You’ll learn more, even if it isn’t totally needed.[/list]
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Topic: Beginner's Mafia XLIII: Robot Mafia - GAME OVER - TOWN WIN! (Read 136107 times)