at the beginning, assuming Will announces Zhengaras illusion at the beginning (and he should, as he spent the last round watching him carefully and all), ICARUS clearly told everyone to stand back and then beat Zhengara into submission should he still stand - carefully. If ICARUS waited until the round is over, a hit would be guaranteed, but man, I have no way in hell to determine how much health Zhengara might have left at the end of the round. So I worked with the 294 health he will have at the start of the round. It was difficult to measure just how much the damage decrease would be, but since Elf said it is applied *after* multiplication, I thought that I should try to not overshoot 350 damage, so with orichalcum 87 damage. Not instakilling Zhengara is absolute priority. With a strength of 45, overshooting that is sufficently unlikely, and even if i do, I doubt it will put Zhengara deep enough into the red to kill him instantly. As far asd the hit chance goes, 20% to miss on the first roll - at the first glance. However, Will also has only a 20% chance of failing this roll. The chance of that happening is 4%. More than likely, Will will provide a bonus big enough to make sure ICARUS has a 100% at hitting the right Zhengara, especially if Lunette is able and willing to overcharge the shiled even further, which should further decrease the TN.
The meat and potatoes is the dex roll. At 105 Dex, Zhengara needs to roll *at least* 60 to not be auto-hit, so that's a chance of 40%. Now even assuming he rolls a 100, ICARUS only needs to roll above 40 to beat that, so even if Zhengara rolls a 100, the chance of dodging is only 40%. I am liking those chances. Same chances for ICARUS being hit by retaliation should he still be able to.
so in short, the chances of Zhengara escaping the attack is incredibly low. Problem is with the damage variation, but those chances are fairly good.
also KJ for the love of good make Kyle hold himself back. This god must not die - yet