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[RedKing]

Could be very interesting to see how the onset of Ramadan affects things in Egypt/Syria/Turkey right now. Especially a Ramadan in middle of the summer -- people get downright cranky when they've gone without food or water all day and it's 45C outside.

Interesting perspective. I suppose the coup couldn't have come at a worse time then.

No, the worse time would have been *during* Ramadan. If the coup is seen by Morsi supporters as an insult to Islam itself, then doing it during the holy month would have been putting the "fuck you" frosting on that insult cake.

[Scoops Novel]

Speaking of which, why go with a coup in the first place? If they're capable of a coup, surely they're capable of getting a round table up and rushing some rigged elections, with a nice bit of interim apathy and fuckups to spin. As for the brotherhood not biting, I'm doubtful of the support they could have rallied against a hastened election even if the talks failed. It certainly sounds better then the current situation,

[misko27]

In b4 Israel/Palestine flamewar engulfs the entire thread.


I kinda worry about the long-term repercussions of the coup in Egypt (and let's face it, that's what it was). Islamists now have a concrete example to point to and tell the undecided on the Arab streets, "Look! We told you that this Western "democracy" is merely a lie and a trick! We tried it "their" way, peacefully at the ballot box. And when we won, they had their kafir pawns in the army take power away from us illegally. The only true guarantee of power for the faithful is as it has always been, by the sword and the gun."

In the same way that leftist parties increasingly turned away from the political process and towards violent revolution in the 70s, after a couple of decades of instances where they won power peacefully in places like Chile, Greece, El Salvador, Nicaragua and Iraq and then got overthrown by US-supported coups.

Ironically, the biggest of the ultra-Islamist parties, the Al Nour, endorses his deposing.

[RedKing]

Speaking of which, why go with a coup in the first place? If they're capable of a coup, surely they're capable of getting a round table up and rushing some rigged elections, with a nice bit of interim apathy and fuckups to spin. As for the brotherhood not biting, I'm doubtful of the support they could have rallied against a hastened election even if the talks failed. It certainly sounds better then the current situation,

I think the army thought Morsi and the Brotherhood would cave to pressure (17 million protesters + the army telling you to negotiate, you'd think they might have been a bit more pragmatic). When he didn't, it forced their hand.

Ironically, the biggest of the ultra-Islamist parties, the Al Nour, endorses his deposing.

Not that surprising. The Brotherhood is too heterodox for the diehard Salafis (plus they're somewhat competitors for the same base). It's like Tea Partiers opposing Republican legislation, because it's not crazy *enough*.

[Scoops Novel]

Speaking of which, why go with a coup in the first place? If they're capable of a coup, surely they're capable of getting a round table up and rushing some rigged elections, with a nice bit of interim apathy and fuckups to spin. As for the brotherhood not biting, I'm doubtful of the support they could have rallied against a hastened election even if the talks failed. It certainly sounds better then the current situation,

I think the army thought Morsi and the Brotherhood would cave to pressure (17 million protesters + the army telling you to negotiate, you'd think they might have been a bit more pragmatic). When he didn't, it forced their hand.

I suppose so. As an observer with fairly shoddy information it's unsurprising that my thoughts on how vitriolic the protestors where before the coup (e.g, prepared to wait if elections where announced, with or without Morsi's consent) are off key, but then again said protestors don't seem particularly satisfied with this solution.

[GlyphGryph]

I sort of also got the feeling that the Brotherhood was steadily dismantling a lot of the democratic bits that would have led to their being a /point/ to another election, and that's why the coup happened - they felt that if they'd waited for an election as things were going, there wouldn't have been been a good chance of a real election happening with the Brotherhood in charge. But of course, that could well be a pretty biased point of view.

Either way, it's not looking too good...

[MetalSlimeHunt]

I don't see this thread as really being necessary with the continued existence of the other thread.

I think the army thought Morsi and the Brotherhood would cave to pressure (17 million protesters + the army telling you to negotiate, you'd think they might have been a bit more pragmatic). When he didn't, it forced their hand.

Ironically, the biggest of the ultra-Islamist parties, the Al Nour, endorses his deposing.

Not that surprising. The Brotherhood is too heterodox for the diehard Salafis (plus they're somewhat competitors for the same base). It's like Tea Partiers opposing Republican legislation, because it's not crazy *enough*.

Much like hardline Republicans, one can count on Islamists to shoot themselves in the foot in the name of their god. Since the Brotherhood has lost almost all their public support, the big issue now is what happens with the Salafis.

Best case scenario they get contained within the legislature, unable to do anything while also being unable to rationalize violence or rebellion. Bad case, they start a rebellion against the state to set up their theocracy and get crushed by the Egyptian army with extreme prejudice. Worse case, and thankfully the least likely, they somehow gain enough power to overtake the legislature. I don't see that happening, but it would likely result in yet another coup when they do something stupid like breaking Camp David Accords.

[GlyphGryph]

Does anyone know what sort of democracy Egypt actually set up? I feel like that could have well been a huge source of the problems they've experienced. It definitely seems like a bit of a winner-takes-all system with few checks and balances.

[misko27]

Does anyone know what sort of democracy Egypt actually set up? I feel like that could have well been a huge source of the problems they've experienced. It definitely seems like a bit of a winner-takes-all system with few checks and balances.

I'm not entirely sure. They were writing a Constitution with a number of problems as I recall, but I'm not a hundred percent.


That was the problem actually. Uncertainty. Confusion about what could and couldn't be done, and therefore jostling.

[GlyphGryph]

Well, even the US didn't get stuff effectively working on their first try. It took the USA, what, 11 years to get their stuff in order? And that was a society with a strong pre-existing democratic tradition.

[Owlbread]

I have to say that Egypt seems like one of the main sources for radical Islamic thought across the world. I know people always talk about Saudi Arabia but think of the people that have come out of Egypt - Qutb, Zawahiri, Abdullah Ahmed Abdullah... even the birthplace of the Muslim Brotherhood, offshoots of which can be found throughout the Arab world, was in Egypt. it's quite striking when you see just how many Al-Qaeda members came originally from Egypt. It's probably because Egypt is one of the most populous Arab countries, but the proportions of the population that adhere to strong, Conservative Islamic teachings are surprisingly large. I think of all the Arab countries that could stage a successful Islamist rebellion, or at least start another civil war over it, Egypt would be that country.

[MetalSlimeHunt]

Saudi Arabia is more of a center of Islamist organization. They don't train the radicals, but they fund the madrassas that do. They preach the Wahhabi rhetoric, though the monarchy doesn't openly endorse it. Much more flows from and originates in Saudi Arabia than most people realize.

Were Saudi Arabia, or at least the "peace" between the monarchy and the clerics, to fall, Islamist groups all over the world would start to wither. Most of these groups aren't organized for self-funding. The Taliban would probably be the largest exception.

[Owlbread]

The question would be though, how long until Saudi Arabia's monarchy does fall? It doesn't seem at risk, they've survived the Arab spring.

[MetalSlimeHunt]

Well, the monarchy is most likely safe until the peace between the monarchy and the clerics is broken. For the moment, Saudi Arabia stands as one of the only Arab regimes that did not make the mistake of trying to crush the religious heads. Historically this has rarely gone well in the long run, though it has allowed the secular dictators to have their heyday (which has clearly passed).

I would argue Saudi Arabia has three big factors that could eventually lead to destabilization and internal conflict, all or none of which could happen in the coming years.

-Oil: This is, of course, the big one. Saudi Arabia's economy only has two meaningful sides, those being the Hajj and oil. Only the Hajj is renewable (there's a sentence nobody has ever written before). Once the oil starts to falter, Saudi Arabia's already fragile economy will begin to fray at the edges.

-Wealth Inequality: A sleeping giant. People don't tend to think about this one, but Saudi Arabia has some of the worst wealth distribution in the world. Most people are quite poor, and the government is giving out a lot of universal welfare to offset this. If that were to be disrupted, or if a movement were to spring up from economic troubles, it could snowball into revolution.

-Secularism: The House of Saud's current arrangement with the Wahhabis is akin to riding a tiger. Any kind of reform or secularization started by the monarchy is risky for the simple reason that they only have to start preaching against the regime for it to all go to hell.

[Zangi]

To me, part of the problem is that most of these former US-Approved gov'ts shitcanned the Islamist elements. 

On Egypt, I believe that a number of secularists walked out of the election process the first time around... ?  And some more Islamists are doing the same now, for the same reasons.  Yup...

Also, PTW