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[Owlbread]

The Middle East doesn't look like a happy place for the next few years, really. I predict that the instability is going to continue well into the middle of this century, especially when the Saudi and Bahrani monarchies fall. It just doesn't look like there's a way out.

[MetalSlimeHunt]

No, things will improve substantially when the House of Saud is relegated to history. They're the ones causing a lot of the instability.

Iran will almost certainly go first, though. Still good, as the conflict between Iran and Saudi Arabia is the big fight of the region.

[Loud Whispers]

I kinda worry about the long-term repercussions of the coup in Egypt (and let's face it, that's what it was). Islamists now have a concrete example to point to and tell the undecided on the Arab streets, "Look! We told you that this Western "democracy" is merely a lie and a trick! We tried it "their" way, peacefully at the ballot box. And when we won, they had their kafir pawns in the army take power away from us illegally. The only true guarantee of power for the faithful is as it has always been, by the sword and the gun."

Part of a democracy is in that you can depose the leader if they have not performed as promised. The president works for the people, not the other way around. And I don't see why it's considered a coup when there was overwhelming public support and demand for him to step down, the military only stepped in because the people were ignored.

In b4 Israel/Palestine flamewar engulfs the entire thread.

GIB BACK ISRAEL CLAY



Meanwhile in Malaysia. It's a pretty phenomenon, occasionally every half decade or so you get a rolling cloud of smoke that forces everyone to go home and seal everything off. It's breathtaking just how much it covers though.

[Owlbread]

I don't know, I somehow imagine Iran would succumb to internal reform before Saudi Arabia, which is a lot less violent than the future I imagine for the House of Saud. I'm not looking forward to it anyway, I can see a lot of bloodshed in the future.

[MetalSlimeHunt]

I don't know, I somehow imagine Iran would succumb to internal reform before Saudi Arabia, which is a lot less violent than the future I imagine for the House of Saud.

That's....exactly what I said?

I'm not looking forward to it anyway, I can see a lot of bloodshed in the future.

Nobody ever said ending oppression would be a bloodless affair. I can't bring myself to feel sorry for what is most likely going to happen to the House of Saud when it all falls apart. They started the abuses, they continued on with them, and they refused the opportunity to reform for more than a century. Nobody should be surprised when it goes the way of France and Russia instead of Britain.

[Owlbread]

I don't feel sorry for the House of Saud, I feel sorry for their 28 million-or-so subjects. I also thought you were meaning that Iran was going to collapse, I thought they'd just reform.

[MetalSlimeHunt]

More of a revolution than a collapse. They aren't going to reform through the established political system. Iran is a theocracy, and the theocrats aren't going to let go of their power unless it is taken from them by force. Nothing about their trappings of democracy aren't pre-approved by the Guardian Council.

[Owlbread]

More of a revolution than a collapse. They aren't going to reform. Iran is a theocracy, and the theocrats aren't going to let go of their power unless it is taken from them by force. Nothing about their trappings of democracy aren't pre-approved by the Guardian Council.

The same thing goes for the UK (except worse because it depends on one woman), and despite my intense animosity to it we don't suffer too badly under it. If Iran gets wise Presidents and reformers then they could reach that point.

[MetalSlimeHunt]

More of a revolution than a collapse. They aren't going to reform. Iran is a theocracy, and the theocrats aren't going to let go of their power unless it is taken from them by force. Nothing about their trappings of democracy aren't pre-approved by the Guardian Council.

The same thing goes for the UK (except worse because it depends on one woman), and despite my intense animosity to it we don't suffer too badly under it. If Iran gets wise Presidents and reformers then they could reach that point.

The UK's royal assent is nothing compared to the Guardian Council. The only reason royal assent still exists is because it isn't used. Scotland would have broken away a long, long, long time ago if the Queen was still blocking legislation in a partisan manner, and the Commonwealth would not be very large either.

The Guardian Council is stacked with proven reactionary theocrats, who regularly block the legislation of basic legal rights that even some traditionalists agree with. They use their power constantly, partisanly, and without regard for anything beyond their religion. And the word of the Guardian Council can not be overruled, no mater how many reformers get into power.

The two are simply not comparable.

[Owlbread]

The UK's royal assent is nothing compared to the Guardian Council. The only reason royal assent still exists is because it isn't used. Scotland would have broken away a long, long, long time ago if the Queen was still blocking legislation in a partisan manner, and the Commonwealth would not be very large either.

The Guardian Council is stacked with proven reactionary theocrats, who regularly block the legislation of basic legal rights that even some traditionalists agree with. They use their power constantly, partisanly, and without regard for anything beyond their religion. And the word of the Guardian Council can not be overruled, no mater how many reformers get into power.

The two are simply not comparable.

I disagree, they are actually very similar in the way they function, they just differ in that the Guardian Council actually acts on their power while the Queen doesn't. They also exist for different reasons. I'm just suggesting you could maybe get to a point where the Guardian Council is effectively neutered and doesn't act on their power on fear of angering the population. That's very difficult to do, of course.

[MetalSlimeHunt]

It's impossible to do. All they have to do is say "no", which they do, often. They appoint their own successors. Their job description is to make sure Iran remains conservative and Islamist.

If the Queen doesn't act on her supposed power, and would lose it if she did so, then they are not the same at all. It is functionally identical to her having no power.

[Owlbread]

It's impossible to do. All they have to do is say "no", which they do, often. They appoint their own successors. Their job description is to make sure Iran remains conservative and Islamist.

If the Queen doesn't act on her supposed power, and would lose it if she did so, then they are not the same at all. It is functionally identical to her having no power.

Well, the English did it by installing a brutal dictator who was even worse and beheading the King. I suppose if Iran got that far they wouldn't need to bother with reinstating the Guardian Council.

By "function" I was referring to the way the mechanism would work on paper i.e. she could dissolve parliament at any time and the like, her powers and the Guardian Council are very similar in that regard, but it is of course not how it actually works in real life. It's a bit of semantics but you surely understand my meaning.

[palsch]

I have to say that Egypt seems like one of the main sources for radical Islamic thought across the world. I know people always talk about Saudi Arabia but think of the people that have come out of Egypt - Qutb, Zawahiri, Abdullah Ahmed Abdullah... even the birthplace of the Muslim Brotherhood, offshoots of which can be found throughout the Arab world, was in Egypt. it's quite striking when you see just how many Al-Qaeda members came originally from Egypt. It's probably because Egypt is one of the most populous Arab countries, but the proportions of the population that adhere to strong, Conservative Islamic teachings are surprisingly large. I think of all the Arab countries that could stage a successful Islamist rebellion, or at least start another civil war over it, Egypt would be that country.

I'd say Egypt was the cradle of modern radical Islamism. In particular the eerily familiar 1952-4 situation.

In 1952 there was a popular military uprising against the monarchy. A Revolutionary Command Council was formed that suspended the constitution and announced a three-year transitional period during. The Muslim Brotherhood supported them in the coup, but then opposed the secular constitution proposed. During 1953 there were open clashes between supporters of the revolutionary council and supporters of the Brotherhood. This lead to the Brotherhood being outlawed in Egypt from 1954 up until 2011, although those imprisoned were released in the 70's after denouncing violence. Before that point detention, torture and even execution were the norm.

It was this outlaw status, combined with what they felt was betrayal by the revolution they had supported, that pushed them towards a more extreme and radical outlook. The inspiration for many Islamist groups (including Al Qaeda) came from the writings of these radicalised Brotherhood leaders.

The modern Brotherhood are pretty well separated from those leaders (Bin Ladin himself accused them of betraying Qutb's ideals. That said it was always a split between wanting to engage with them and try to build a nation where they were satisfied without pulling too far in an Islamist direction or marginalising them and risking a repeat of the 50's radicalisation.

[Scoops Novel]

Does anyone know what sort of democracy Egypt actually set up? I feel like that could have well been a huge source of the problems they've experienced. It definitely seems like a bit of a winner-takes-all system with few checks and balances.

According to this source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y5suNtLwbBw (It's a surprisingly good channel, but he has to keep people engaged), more then 50% of the vote went to a scattering of "progressive or liberal" parties, with 24% going to the former regimes party and 25% to the Muslim Brotherhood.

[GlyphGryph]

That's actually a pretty damn good video, thanks.