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[Xanmyral]

That's typically how it usually is.

The hardest chapters are never on the part of the GM, but rather the players, looking back. At least, until recently with FEF 1, which finally broke that rhythm. Good planning is allowing that to run pretty well however, although there was quite a few tough spots and places where it really could of gone either way, compared to the 'errybody dead and three people up out of sixteen' that was the village mission. Which was because of poor planning.

[Swordstar]

Hey Xan, since you're around, thoughts on the plan? Cause if you're up for it, you're first up.

[Xanmyral]

Sure, gimme a moment to get caught up real quick. Still a little loopy, as a warning, recovering from a week of poor sleep.

[Swordstar]

No problem, I totally get that. Just figured a third opinion on the argument Soly and I have been having for the past two pages would be nice.

[Sirus]

Were that I could sit on Bay 12 all day long and offer advice, like it was nearly a year ago. As it is now I basically just follow plans and offer 2 cents when I can

[Swordstar]

Well if you have any 2 cents on this turn, feel free to toss 'em in.

[Xanmyral]

Opinions now, sorry for the wait, I wanted to wait until I had something to eat and a clearer head.

Let's see...
- Enoch and Otiros can't actually kill the Elite Lancer. Enoch does 22 on a hit (96% chance), but Otiros does 7 (16 + 2 - 11 = 7), and that's assuming he hits (77%). He'd be left with exactly one health left.
- Brann can't kill the medic either, even with Ursa providing bonus damage thanks to support. (13 + 1 - 6 =
- I'm not sure what merc you're talking about for Ursa to hit. The one you want Oscar to hit? Ursa sadly lacks canto, and I don't see any other merc in range.
- You are correct in that the swordsman can be killed by Oscar on a crit or adept, but of course that assumes he hits in the first place (94%).

While some of the hit chances certainly seem reliable, never, ever, ever think that means you will never miss. This is coming from a guy who misses three to five times in a row when a shot has a 95% chance of hitting, and in FEF example, has missed two attacks when I had less than a five percent chance to miss. Always double check math, triple check sheets, and ruthlessly acquire whatever advantages you can from supports, personal skills, etc, as general advice when it comes to planning.

I'll lay out some possible plans, main ideas, etc in a moment. Gonna look things over closer.

[Solymr]

The merc is the guy on the other side of the wall and the swordsman is the guy harassing you.

[Xanmyral]

Oh him? He's of so little consequence I kinda forgot about him. Worse he can do is hit and Enoch misses, really, and even then Enoch will need another hit to eat it. Poison can't down, if I recall, just bring to one health. Priest/Lancer can't die unless crits anyhow, so not much can be done there.

[Solymr]

Why can't Ursa try and throw a hatchet? He gets weapon advantage so he and Enoch can kill the lancer. Then Otiros shoots the merc and Oscar and Brann kill the medic.
Edit: why can't Brann kill the medic in one round? He autohits for 11 two times.

[Xanmyral]

Main Idea: Retreat to the upper door Kale went through to bottle neck them while we're at full force.

Vague Right Team Plan:
- The Elite Lancer can be almost killed by Otiros and Enoch, but he still needs an extra point of damage to actually die. This can come from either Bran or Ursa (either would work, I suggest whoever has the best chance of hitting, although Ursa gets a counter free attempt which is the best).

Enoch (Prelude): 96% Hit, 22 Damage, 7% Crit
Otiros (Iron Crossbow): 77% Hit, 7 Damage, 3% Crit (Note that Hit can be raised to 79% and Crit to 8% should Jago be up before he attacks)
Ursa (Hatchet): 96% Hit, 9 Damage, 17% Crit (Math made including Brann's Support, which has bonus Hit, Damage, and Crit)
Brann (Steel Rapier): 71% Hit (Including Ursa's Support), 8 Damage, 17% Crit (Math made including Ursa's Support, which has bonus Hit, Damage, and Crit)

- From there, the other (either Brann or Ursa) should either head north and try to regroup or head south and assault the priest. Brann can kill the priest, so best he do that or just move north to regroup.

Ursa (Hatchet) 84% Hit, 13 Damage, 14% Crit (Brann's Support Counted)
Brann (Slim Sword) >100% Hit, 12x2 Damage, 19% Crit (Ursa's Support Counted)

- Whenever we (or if, more likely) do kill the elite lancer, I see the regular lancer heading up and attacking. Not much to worry about there though, to be honest.

- Oscar or Otiros can attempt to kill Merc D and/or the Medic. Otiros has a better chance of killing Merc D (just needs to hit, which is a 79% chance to hit), while Oscar needs to either crit or adept, which is a much lower margin of success there. May be good for Oscar to either heal or head north and regroup. It may be too late to do a good divide here, due to Haspen's prior move, but it hasn't been rolled yet so it can be voided until it is.

Next turn Tyrn is going to be gotten up by Enoch, and Jago needs to be got up as well by anyone with a Vuln. The lower lancer will most likely advance to eat our time up, but I suggest just ignoring him and moving north so we can aid the other team.

@Ninja Soly: Misread his RES as his DEF, so he can indeed kill him. Its actually twelve damage, counting Ursa's support. Forgot to check the sheet a third time, I did.

Left Team Plan soonish. General suggested course of action for right team would be for Enoch to blast the elite lancer, Ceil moves north, Ursa takes Ceil's place and hatchets, hopefully killing the elite lancer, Bran either moving north or killing the medic, Otiros hopefully killing Merc D, Oscar regrouping north.

[Blade Master Model 42]

Whoever told you poison can't kill you is wrong.

[Xanmyral]

Can't remember who, may of just been an assumption on my part. I think I had that idea in my head around when Fezz was poisoned, in FEF 2 Chapter 1. Either way, unless poison can deal ten damage he's still fine.

[Solymr]

So recap:
Enoch/Ursa kill lancer.
Otiros kills merc.
Brann kills medic.
Everyone else just moves or assaults the swordsman.

Also why the fuck does Oscar have 3 vulneraries.

[Xanmyral]

I was wondering the same thing, really. Its kinda funny, mostly because I'm imagining him hoarding the white powder and whispering 'my precious' to it. Anyway, no need to curse and spit really. And I suggest ignoring the merc assault Enoch, we can deal with him next turn.

Left team has less options, and less they can do. I'd like it if they could just retreat, but they can't with downed people. Problem is, at best whatever plan they make is just setting up ablative armor and hoping things don't go terrible.

I'm looking, but not a lot of options present a way that doesn't lead to Diana and Freya getting downed. The best plan I can see would be getting Freya up with Lucas' vuln, Diana snagging Freya's vuln and using it on herself. That would keep you guys alive for another turn, in that Diana wouldn't get downed, but that's a startlingly short term prospect. You need back up fast and now, to be frank.

If Diana falls, the left side crumples, plain and simple. The only way she doesn't fall is if she uses a vuln. If the the hole brought by Freya's downing isn't plugged, the left side also crumples. So if Merc D isn't killed, the left side will be in for a really rough time.