ok, I've got some time, and today was a good day. Finally got my head clear I think, so time for some cases.
First of all, I'll review the thing I'm most sure of right now, that NQT is a spy.
NQT over the course of the entire game has totaled the same number of posts as Past Me.
13 14 15(two more than Past Me, sorry)
Zombie Urist your tracker is losing posts 13 and 14 of NQT's, linked
Here and
Here.
This is the LurkerTracker config I'm using.
Week 1, he has exactly
one post.
in this post, he answers the RVS questions directed to him, states that he's never going to approve a randomly selected team except the first one, for the reason of the first team is
too small to hide in. he asks zero questions of anyone else.
Week 2, he posts
1,
2,
3,
4 times before the team is locked, including the team lock post. during these he says:
(post 1)"Dariush is out until I know more about the trustworthiness of Nerjin and Griffpup." he never explains this further.
(post 3)"Dariush to me is a bit too much of a risk factor due to the questionable method of random picking, but if everyone would prefer him to Remuthra I'll put him forward." followed by his communication to his scumbuddies.
(post 4)"Damn, you make a point about the unanimousness-- ultimately, we gain information about the trustworthiness of Dariush even if he's not on the team"
there is no follow up to this.
Post 4's timestamp is 1 hour and 40 minutes after Dariush posted his objection to being on the team.
more on why this matters later when I start talking about Dariush, just keep these in mind for now please.
the rest of his posts do not seem as significant to me as his first 5, or more accurately posts 1, 2, 4, and 5. post 3 and posts 6 and onward seem meaningless to me beyond taking note of what they do not contain.
now then, I do suggest reviewing the posts I didn't bother to link using LurkerTracker, because there is a pattern too them that is a key part of why I am so sure he is scum. He is consistantly very minimalistic. Every time he speaks, he says what he has to say in a very concise manner. He doesn't go off topic. He doesn't speculate on items at random. He always keeps it as small as possible. This is not a scumtell in of itself, but it means that the few times that he does stray from the subject at hand,
particularly when he lists off a strategy for how to avoid double-sabotages, it is worth paying extra attention. go to post 3, and start backtracking please. look for any kind of prompt. Why would he say that? Was anyone talking about it earlier? What does it have to do with anything else being said? you aren't going to find anything. Look at all twelve other posts for any time he says anything, at all, without prompting. here, I'll list off the few times he does:
Post 1) "In general I am opposed to teams that don't have the mission leader on them and pro teams that I am on. Given the flip up here, I've decided to assent to this initial team, bu I'd understand if others didn't."
Post 2) << too long for me to be happy quoting, he lists off every possible combination of scum/non-scum as related to Dariush being scum. no follow-up analysis for explanation for why it matters is given>>
Post 4) <<How for scum to avoid double-sabotages>>
Post 8 ) <<flavor complaining about a sabotage, says there were 1-3 scum on mission with no analysis, townie points to Tiruin and Sheep for the downvote>>
that's it. and I am choose to discard posts 2 and 8, because they were in reaction to a mission being concluded. I also choose to discard post 1 from the list, because it is him justifying an upvote for a team that is condemns in a question he answer later in the same post.
this leaves post 4, and ONLY post 4, where he says anything beyond the bare bones. and the only thing he adds is how for scum to avoid a double-sabotage.
in addition to all of the above, notice his reaction to being called out on this, his massive lurking, his statements about how he is going to do things by the numbers, which then never materialize. he says he's going to analyze the votes and mission teams and suchlike, and yet such an analysis never, ever, materializes. you want to know who is actually doing things by the numbers? Griffonday.
there is NO, i repeat, absolutely NO, doubt in my mind, that NQT is a spy. I consider anything he has to say beyond this point in the game pure WIFOM. From my viewpoint, he might as well confess already for all that it matters anymore. I cannot see any way all the above actions can possibly coincide with him being a Rebel.
Now then, next up to bat, Dariush.
Taking as fact that NQT is a spy, we now get some interesting interaction details from him. Remember those quotes I pointed out in his week 2 pre-team-lock posts? They can collectively be summarized as "I want to take the same team as week 1 + anyone that isn't Dariush".
additionally, notice the timing on when he chose to communicate to his scumbuddies. The post he does it in is the same post where he budges on the "Should I include Dariush?" issue.
and then, when Dariush responds to the situation, and doesn't give any kind of signal acknowledging the message, NQT IMMEDIATELY backtracks on his previous statement, and locks the team. He allows zero chance for discussion beyond this point. the day started 45 hours before this post, nobody (including the GM) had prodded him to hurry up either, which means that NQT was in a hurry for reasons of his own, not because he was running low on time to pick his team.
In other words, he didn't want people to have a chance to force him to include Dariush on his team.
next, lets take a look at Dariush himself, rather then how NQT fingered him:
Week 1) only thing I found noteworthy is that he doesn't include himself in his randomly selected team. doesn't mean much.
Week 2) he predicts the upcoming sabotage of the team.
Week 3, Day 1) he has a long drawn-out fight with Sheep, justifying why he didn't include himself in his randomly selected team. he implies that scum will sabotage week 1, and that it is better to get the first sabotage over with than to minimize the risk of a spy on the first team by self-including, although he never says it directly.
Week 3, Day 2) he attacks GriffPup for calling out NQT on communicating, and dodges my question when I ask him how he would communicate. his activity level also sharply declines from earlier. previously he was posting every day, skipping one or two, but his last four posts were on: June 30, July 3, July 7, and July 9.
Due to lurkertracker failing on NQT's posts above, please let me know if I missed some of Dariush's, since I was using it for his as well and haven't done as much backtracking to find his by hand.
My case on Dariush is much weaker than my case on NQT, but the problem is, NQT had to be communicating to
someone, and the timing for when he did it strongly fingers Dariush.
Finally, for completeness I could restate my case on Tiruin, but I've done that over and over lately, this post is already huge, and it's the case of mine that is the lowest on evidence and highest on emotion. and I don't think I can persuade any of you by listing off emotions.
Currently Unanswered questions of mine:
NQT:
Lenglon
NQT: why did you vote up a team containing GriffPup and yourself when GriffPup was on the team that was sabotaged?
The possibility of Griffpup being a spy was outweighed by my certainty that I'm not a spy. Did I get the probabilities wrong here?
NQT: please either re-answer the question or explain what you meant. only one spy is needed for a team to become invalid, the possibility of one of a team's members being a spy cannot be outweighed by the odds of another member of that team not being a spy. the answer you gave me is utter nonsense.
I don't really care if you don't bother to answer by the way, I'm just trying to be thorough.
Tiruin:
Tiruin: could you summarize what you thought of Nerjin then, and what you think of Nerjin now? He was the only person not on the team you upvoted that was on both teams you downvoted.
Nerjin:
Nerjin: your comments to me have been implying that GriffPup's scummyness is self-evident. Currently, to me, it is not. Could you please re-state your case against him?
GriffDay:
GriffDay: what are your objections to GriffPup?
GriffDay: you have a solid rebel read on Dariush? why?
Dariush:
Dariush: please answer the question I asked, rather than respond to a general-form objection to your post. I read GriffPup's post quite thoroughly thank you very much.
New Questions:
Dariush: above, my comment about you from Week 3, Day 1, is it accurate?
Sheep: I am having trouble following why you think Tiruin is scum, and your analysis of her seems unrelated to my own. could you please explain it to me?
GriffPup: You may be too low on time to explain why you're downvoting this team in full, but could you please list which players on the team you consider a problem? even if you can't give an explanation for why they're problems at this time?