-We know or can assume potions have no failure rate, or such a negligible failure rate as to maintain that sort of paper-thin profit margin
Actually, the profit margin is calculated based on a theoretical minimum duration length. I was bored so I decided to calculate the duration length we would get with our current skill levels according to this formula. Taking the most pessimistic approach that you insist on I calculated that without taking eventual skillgains and using only the worst and minimal amount of apartus, only a Apprentice's Mortar and Pestle, we would make a potion with a duration of 4.023846 seconds. Four times the assumed theoretical worst. With that we would only need to make 4 potions costing us 8 gold in ingredients.
This isn't what I got. I got a minimum duration of ~2.8066 seconds. Still better than 1 second, but a noteworthy difference.
BasePotionStrength = (Alchemy/EffectBaseCost + Luck/(EffectBaseCost * 10) + Intelligence/(EffectBaseCost *10)) * MortarQuality / 3
BasePotionDuration = BasePotionStrength * 3
BasePotionStrength = (7/EffectBaseCost + 56.0/(EffectBaseCost * 10) + 42.4/(EffectBaseCost *10)) * MortarQuality / 3
BasePotionDuration = BasePotionStrength * 3
BasePotionStrength = (7/3 + 56.0/(3 * 10) + 42.4/(3 *10)) * 0.5 / 3
BasePotionDuration = BasePotionStrength * 3
BasePotionStrength = (2.3333 + 56.0/30 + 42.4/30) * 0.1666
BasePotionDuration = BasePotionStrength * 3
BasePotionStrength = (2.3333 + 1.8666 + 1.4133) * 0.1666
BasePotionDuration = BasePotionStrength * 3
BasePotionStrength = (5.6132) * 0.1666
BasePotionDuration = BasePotionStrength * 3
BasePotionStrength = 0.9351
BasePotionDuration = 0.9351 * 3
BasePotionDuration = 2.8055
...which hopefully differs from the answer I gave above because I hit the wrong keys in typing it out the first time.
Accounting for the fact that we need all four pieces of equipment, I believe we round to 3 seconds and add CalcinatorQuality + (RetortQuality * 2), so at worst case 1.5 for 4.5 seconds total.
So actually better than expected by my calculations, but only on raw power.
But the failure rate is a valid problem so lets take it into account. In Episode 42, part 2: The Source of Magic when we went from 0 to 7 we failed 6 out of 10 times. Lets continue the pessimistic tone and round it up and say we only succeeded one quarter of the time, with a potion duration of 4 we still maintain the "paper-thin profit margin" calculated in the original post despite taking a very high failure rate into consideration. Remember, this failure rate is from going from 0 to 7, our failure rate is gonna be lower since we start from a higher skill level and gain skill while making the potions.
And what is more is that this is only taking the absolute worst equipment into account. With grandmaster variant of both calcinator and mortar and pestle we would get a 22.09538 duration potion, far in excess of what we could buy. And as luck would have it Anis Seloth have those.
Of course, I don't know if those are placed somewhere we can use them, but this list show that there is plenty of other options, like one grandmaster mortar and pestle in Tel Naga Upper Hall (potion duration 16.09538). In fact the worst option available to us in Sadrith Mora is Journeyman variant of both calcinator and mortar and pestle which would net us potions with a duration of 11.04769.
Remember though, we need all four pieces in this one. That seems to raise the odds that anywhere we'll find one we'll find all of them, at least in frequent use, but it means a mortal and pestle doesn't help us any more than a lone alembic does. Unless you've got a good estimate on a full unattended set (or in the possession of people friendly enough to let us use them for free instead of buying things from them directly), just having a lot of alchemical gear in the city doesn't help us.
Also, remember that the world is somewhat dynamic. Just because it's there in the default game doesn't mean we can rely completely on it being there for us.
-We know or can assume that there's at least 20 of the ingredient(s) we need right on hand; remember that alchemy effects are different for us than in Vanilla, so there's no guarantee another 1 gp Water Walking ingredient even exists on Vvardenfell, much less Sadrith Mora
As for if there is another water walking, given the number of 1 gold ingredients and effects there is a very good chance there is another 1 gold ingredient with water walking.
What makes you say that?
Below you list 5 ingredients for persistent, reliable sale. Let's assume there's 5 more lying about in easy reach. That's 10 chances of Water Walking at four shots apiece, which we'll simplify to just say 40 chances. How many spell effects are there, again? And at least in Vanilla, it's not like they're randomly distributed- messing with fatigue or draining agility is a lot more common than paralysis or levitation.
And yes, we can throw in their non-regenerating stock- it might even be regenerating stock in this version- but then potentially we're losing our ability to try more than once or twice, and the same issues regarding bread's likelihood of making us walk on water remain.
-We know or can assume that, even buying in bulk and possibly from unfriendly merchants, we can acquire these 1 gp ingredients for no more than their value of 1 gp apiece
It just so happen to be that Sadrith Mora is one of the most well stocked city in terms of alchemy.
Of the ingredients I listed
- Anis Seloth stock and restock 10 Wickwheat
- Pierlette Rostorard stock and restock 5 Roobrush, 10 Kresh Fiber and 5 Stoneflower Petals
- Aunius Autrus stock and restock 10 Ash Yam.
So we have enough to eat directly and and a little experimentation. Ingredients can also be found on bushes or laying around, but I can't be bothered to link them all.
You misunderstand.
Supposing we walk up to Anis Seloth and ask for her 10 Wickwheat. She says great, that'll be 14 gold. We say, but, they're only worth one gold apiece! She responds the same way she would if we pointed out the same for her potions, which is probably apathy or offense.
Now... we could try buying them one at a time, relying on our Mercantile being good enough that, if she has to choose, she's willing to sell us stuff for 100% value rather than 200%, but that'd probably annoy her. So your estimates based on 1 gp reagents may turn into 1.3 or 1.5 gp reagents instead, which can have a rather significant impact on those calculations.
-We know or can assume that time isn't an issue, either in general or with the time it will take us to collect and combine these ingredients
We have already been spelunking about the city and plan to do that some more anyway, buying the items won't ad much to the time. Our other alchemy attempts have not been shown to take any significant amount as far as I remember.
If any of these fail, this becomes another waste of time, and possibly money, at a time when we're strapped for both.
No, even if we assume the absolute worst results we still get alchemy knowledge and skill. Money we can get more of, especially with alchemy, and time we have is unknown.
Yeah, but that's a bad thing. It's not like faffing about gives us more time to faff about or justifies further faffing about, it's just that we don't think we can physically get there without further faffing... and that some of us are scatterbrained or not entirely on board for this particular project. To the extent that this plan lets us get to Tel Fyr alive and in a timely manner, great. To the extent that this plan lets us take a break from doing what we were supposed to be doing to grind alchemy, no, bad, bad consciousness, off the table. We can grind alchemy any time; meeting the Nerevarine and talking to the greatest wizard on the continent need to happen now.
-We know or can assume that the volume and bottle limits aren't going to be an issue. Remember that we can't make our own bottles, meaning we need to buy as many as we want simultaneous potions of, and then can't ditch the bottles without losing our value. That means not only would we have to run with an armful of potions, we'd have to be able to put them away as we emptied each one.
Even in worst case its only 4 bottles for one of the other bottles, and we are already carrying 8. But now that we know magic we should be able to make our own. Or at least be taught it, such a simple spell should be really cheap. Or if that is not possible lets get a simple and cheap fire spell like fireball so we can make our own bottles.
Maybe get a cheap summoning spell? Summoned creatures should not be as bad at combat as we are.
You misunderstand.
We don't know magic yet. We can
sense Magicka now, yes. That doesn't let us actually
do anything with it. Remember, the deal to learn magic was 500 for the basics
and then 500 per school. This means that we can't do anything at all yet, save maybe be aware that we have Magicka, until we learn not just a spell,
but the ability to use that school in the first place. We're 500 gold and some time with Fast Eddie or another good mage away from being able to buy Destruction spells, another 500 and training session from being able to buy Conjuration, and so on.
So, in some distant long run, yes, we'll be able to make our own potion bottles. Even further down the road, we might be able to summon servants... but again, our skill will be garbage at first; we shouldn't expect anything more out of Conjuration than out of Spears or Light Armor just because "it's magic." And at the moment, we're not only completely out of our league, but get further away every time we spend money on alchemical reagents, boat fares, repair hammers, or any of the other stuff we tend to want, need, or be distracted by the shininess of long enough to buy.
At the very least we should have time to get the ingredients I listed and sample them for a complete 1 gp list.
What makes you say that?
That nobody we asked so far claimed to have seen anyone and thus nobody might have gone to Tell Fyr yet? And that we have already been walking about for a while? Of course, I do not know for sure how long the alchemy takes, in game its instant, so I guess its up to how much LordBucket decides to fluff it.
We haven't actually asked anyone but the boat guy and maybe a merchant or two, have we? And I don't even think we asked him about
seeing her, just whether he brought her to Tel Fyr. Also he hated us, and so, in his own words, "wouldn't tell us if he had."
There's a lot of people that could have seen her coming and going that we haven't asked. Guild Guide being the chief one, but for all we know she came in by boat. I'd fully expect her to leave by just waterwalking or swimming, though.
Oh, this too. The last time we tried to alchemy it was using Sexy's stuff in the Ald'Ruhn Mages Guild, prior to being recall-swapped into a dungeon.
While I don't know for sure, I seem to remember that you can go anywhere as long as it is not locked legally and that might be true for using equipment standing about.
But how about a compromise since it is possible that we may be pressed for time; lets sample the cheap ingredients we can quickly find or buy. If we get a useful reaction we use alchemy, if not find some other option.
This is true on both counts, but there's a catch- it's only until they try to stop you.
Meaning if some alchemist lets us wander behind a curtain in their shop and we start using their alchemical gear, and they don't notice and thus don't stop us, that's perfectly legal. If they tell us not to use that stuff, it becomes a crime... and since most people seem fairly aware for NPCs, relying on them just standing by and letting us use their stuff, or wander into their bedroom or workshop, seems unlikely.
I'd be fine with quickly sampling ingredients if I believed it was actually quick and had good odds of succeeding, but when you combine running around looking for a full set of gear with the odds that the five ingredients we rush around buying from shopowners are going to carry waterwalking, I just don't think it's worth it in the short run unless we're just not able to accomplish it otherwise. I'm all in favor of advancing our alchemical knowledge and skill, but I don't think we should lounge about while Clover the Maybe-Nerevarine meets with a 4,000 year old wizard to possibly kill herself just to do it.