Aside from the supposed invulnerability of supplies (please refer to Great Britain and Japan during WW2 for two examples of vastly different success for a sea-based variation), I reitarate again: What does Capia have to gain to form an alliance with us and fight against Morovia, assuming we follow your plan?
Agree:
Possible Reasons:
- "Sooner or later one side or the other is going to invade them".
- "No, that means difficult war, fighting 2 enemies at once 1 that is stronger 1 that matches you means war lost."
Effects:
- War with Morovia.
- Two upbuilt armies clashing on or near their own territory. Combat damage for them.
- The victor comes out stronger.
Disagree:
Possible Reasons:
- We've just threatened them, making us a common enemy.
Effects:
- War with us.
- Two upbuilt armies clashing on or near their own territory. Combat damage for them.
- The victor is either us or a common alliance between the two.
So, what exactly would you do? That's right, stay neutral. Ideally, let the other two fight, weakening them as much as possible. Afterwards, either security or you can intervene.
However, by threatening them with war, you take that neutral option away. Countries, like people, do not like being forced to something. Therefore, my prediction is that they will ally against us, combining their navies and trying to cut us off from supply while trying to fight us to a standstill.
Therefore, my reasoning goes as such:
A) They currently have the option to either join one of the conflict's sides or stay neutral.
B) Joining the conflict means disproportional damage to them.
C) Therefore, they stay neutral currently.
D) They, just like us, do not really know anything about the recent changes in military strength of us or Morovia (They can watch the battles; they do not have spies in every factory).
E) Due to C, they may know about the naval force levels, but have no clue as to the military developments of the last ~5 years (since the land war ended)
F) We would take their option of neutrality away.
G) Due to F, they have to decide to join one of the sides.
H) When faced with joining sides of forces whose strength they do not know, they will not chose the side that threatened them.
I) They will join the war against us.
Or, to paraphrase: Gunboat diplomacy only works if you've got a gunboat and everyone knows they don't.
If you disagree, please point out the points where I'm wrong.