Bay 12 Games Forum

Please login or register.

Login with username, password and session length
Advanced search  
Pages: 1 ... 5 6 [7] 8 9 ... 24

Author Topic: Star bound [giveaway] Finished! Now about generating luck  (Read 24889 times)

Shadowlord

  • Bay Watcher
    • View Profile
Re: Star bound [giveaway] 9 copies! Second chance for glory
« Reply #90 on: April 23, 2013, 12:45:36 am »

Aoi: You ran them independently, but I did so and then wrote it down (despite already knowing what I would find). :V

I am trying to remember the calculations to judge my chance of winning one of these.

Given that we have around... 80+ people trying to win 9 copies of a price that is obtained by making a list where you have to be one of the top 9 people chosen normally.

"Never tell me the odds" - Han Solo

If it's just the top 9 names out of a shuffled list of 90 names, then it seems common sense that each person would have a 10% chance of being one of those 9 names. (Usually, common sense is wrong when you're dealing with probabilities. In this case, it is correct, but thinking about it for a few seconds demonstrates that..)

Assuming 90 copies and 9 winners, and nobody can occupy more than one slot on the list of names:
chance of not being chosen: 89/90 * 88/89 * 87/88 * 86/87 * 85/86 * 84/85 * 83/84 * 82/83 * 81/82 * 80/81 = 9/10 = 0.9 = 90%
chance of being chosen: 1.0 - 0.9 = 0.1 = 10%

It's actually quite a large chance as contests go (and going up to 12 jumps it up several more percentage points, assuming the same number of entrants). (Maybe not a large chance for here. :P)
Logged
<Dakkan> There are human laws, and then there are laws of physics. I don't bike in the city because of the second.
Dwarf Fortress Map Archive

Xgamer4

  • Bay Watcher
    • View Profile
Re: Star bound [giveaway] 9 copies! Second chance for glory
« Reply #91 on: April 23, 2013, 01:16:58 am »

I'm in.

I also want to thank you for your generosity.
Logged
insert something mind-blowing/witty here*

tompliss

  • Bay Watcher
  • Goodbye ?
    • View Profile
Re: Star bound [giveaway] 9 copies! Second chance for glory
« Reply #92 on: April 23, 2013, 01:28:10 am »

I'm evil and i want this game ! :D
Logged

Neonivek

  • Bay Watcher
    • View Profile
Re: Star bound [giveaway] 9 copies! Second chance for glory
« Reply #93 on: April 23, 2013, 01:32:57 am »

I'm evil and i want this game ! :D

As we having an Evil Off? because I only get to be evil for 7 more days :P
Logged

ScriptWolf

  • Bay Watcher
  • You can't spell slaughter without laughter!
    • View Profile
Re: Star bound [giveaway] 9 copies! Second chance for glory
« Reply #94 on: April 23, 2013, 02:04:21 am »

Good news everyone ! There are now

13

Keys in total to win !!
Logged
He must be running 3.5 abacuses of RAM

Alkhemia

  • Bay Watcher
  • aka Deep Sea Diver Man
    • View Profile
Re: Star bound [giveaway] 9 copies! Second chance for glory
« Reply #95 on: April 23, 2013, 02:13:48 am »

Good news everyone ! There are now

13

Keys in total to win !!
Oh wow ty all who have added keys
Logged
"Hiken: Tsubame-Gaeshi" -Sasaki Kojirou (Grand Order}

"Please touch me. Without lying, wherever you want to touch. That is my wish." - Kiyohime (Grand Order)

"Tyranny, violation, genocide. Those are the things that I detest above all else." - Amakusa Shirou Tokisada (Grand Order)

wuxia

  • Escaped Lunatic
    • View Profile
Re: Star bound [giveaway] 13 copies! Second chance for glory
« Reply #96 on: April 23, 2013, 02:15:32 am »

I'm in =]
Logged

Shadowlord

  • Bay Watcher
    • View Profile
Re: Star bound [giveaway] 9 copies! Second chance for glory
« Reply #97 on: April 23, 2013, 02:25:21 am »

Good news everyone ! There are now

13

Keys in total to win !!
Oh wow ty all who have added keys

Indeed.
Logged
<Dakkan> There are human laws, and then there are laws of physics. I don't bike in the city because of the second.
Dwarf Fortress Map Archive

muwahahaha

  • Bay Watcher
    • View Profile
Re: Star bound [giveaway] 13 copies! Second chance for glory
« Reply #98 on: April 23, 2013, 02:37:51 am »

I'm in.

I don't usually go for these but Starbound looks really interesting.
Logged

rhesusmacabre

  • Bay Watcher
  • UNDEAD-CANNOT BE ATTACKED
    • View Profile
Re: Star bound [giveaway] 14 copies! Second chance for glory
« Reply #99 on: April 23, 2013, 03:07:13 am »

In, please.

Good luck everyone!
Logged

teoleo

  • Bay Watcher
    • View Profile
Re: Star bound [giveaway] 14 copies! Second chance for glory
« Reply #100 on: April 23, 2013, 03:28:22 am »

in, again
Logged

cibo

  • Bay Watcher
    • View Profile
Re: Star bound [giveaway] 14 copies! Second chance for glory
« Reply #101 on: April 23, 2013, 03:39:44 am »

I am in :D
Logged

Tronak

  • Bay Watcher
    • View Profile
Re: Star bound [giveaway] 14 copies! Second chance for glory
« Reply #102 on: April 23, 2013, 03:42:18 am »

I'm in. Why not  :).
Logged

TwilightWalker

  • Bay Watcher
  • Oops.
    • View Profile
Re: Star bound [giveaway] 14 copies! Second chance for glory
« Reply #103 on: April 23, 2013, 03:51:18 am »

I think it'd be awesome to have a copy, count me in.
Logged

hemmingjay

  • Bay Watcher
    • View Profile
Re: Star bound [giveaway] 14 copies! Second chance for glory
« Reply #104 on: April 23, 2013, 04:21:39 am »

I believe this now counts as the largest single game giveaway on B12. Three cheers for ScriptWolf for hosting! Three more cheers for those who donated copies!
Logged
Only a simple mind can be certain.
Pages: 1 ... 5 6 [7] 8 9 ... 24