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Author Topic: Witches' Coven: In the Heart of Darkness [GAME OVER: 4/13]  (Read 204265 times)

notquitethere

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Re: Witches' Coven: In the Heart of Darkness [D4: 7/13]
« Reply #1020 on: September 26, 2013, 04:37:46 am »

Irony Owl
I can do a more thorough analysis if you'd like, but the short answer is that it's some interesting insights (if true) at the beginning followed by a lot of confirmation bias.
I'd be interested in seeing your own analysis.

Specific scum actions here are interesting if true, like Toaster pressuring people over Ottofar or Dariush's and Toaster's aggression towards yourself. The problem is that I'm not too sure of your analysis; for instance, you say Toaster was critical of Lenglon, but was he justified in being so? Unless you've got something to suggest that they were acting strangely in doing something, it's just WIFOM to speculate as to why they did it.

Speaking of which, your "lack of" observations are basically entirely in that category. "Toaster and Dariush were congenial and explanatory with each other" is interesting to note, if true. "Toaster hardly ever poked Solifuge" is not unless, again, there's something explicitly strange about it. In the same way that Toaster and Dariush buddying up is only interesting if they weren't buddy-buddy with anyone else, Toaster never hunting specific people really isn't a good clue.
Okay, to expand: when Toaster and Dariush interacted with one another, they asked a few questions, said 'fair enough' and dropped whatever it was. With Lenglon, they both kept up a long dialogue. Never interacting with a player is significant because it shows a lack of scumhunting commitment (especially several days into the game).

Then you go purely WIFOM and useless. For instance, you insist that scum is likely to want you and Tiruin dead (and apparently know about both of you) to justify saying that people voting either might be scum. But then you say that they're likely to spread out to avoid being too obvious to justify them not voting you but still being scum. Essentially, you've said that people are scum when they vote you and still scum when they're not voting you.

That's not something you can draw actual conclusions from. It's something you can use to convince yourself of what you already think is true.
Here you display amazing game-ignorance! Scum knew Tiruin's alignment because she claimed it. They knew my alignment because I claimed it tacitly to Toaster (who had the same role in the previous two games). Also, you completely misread my point about vote spread on Day 1: we know now that all three lynch targets are ones that scum would want to kill. To them, it doesn't matter too much who gets killed. In general, scum like to stay off each others wagons. I wasn't saying for certainty that scum split three-ways on this, but I wouldn't be surprised. It's worth stressing that this particular point isn't lynch-vote worthy stuff, only a cumulative piece in an emerging picture.

Again useless. You mention that it's inconclusive, so I'll skip the majority of it, but notice how, again, you're picking the explanation that confirms what you already know.
Not really. I've got the phenomena: the voting patterns, and I'm trying to build a theory that best explains what's going on. So:

Day 1, confirmed scum are voting you and Tiruin, so you say the third scum is probably elsewhere... even though you claim they explicitly wanted both of you dead.
So day 1, I say I wouldn't be surprised if the third scum is elsewhere. Then again, I wouldn't be surprised if they double up either. No strong conclusions here.

Day 2, you assume Okami's trying to kill you to keep you quiet, but you've got no explanation for why you'd think that beyond that he's voting you. Voting Dariush is also a towntell for some people and inconclusive for others.

Day 3, you don't have any broader conclusions, but voting Toaster is once again a towntell for some and a nulltell for others.
Okami is confirmed 3rd party, I was just speculating as to what his true motives might have been then-- it's neither here nor there. Voting for scum after it's pretty certain they're going to hang is a known scum-tactic (in fact, it's the example Leafsnail once gave me when I asked him what a genuine scumtell looked like), leading the lynch on scum when they're not otherwise suspected is not generally a scum-tactic.

Day 4, no conclusions, except that birdy's lack of vote is "hedging his bets."
Birdy has never voted in this entire game. What would you call that?

Still useless. Notice Lenglon's reasoning for voting Tiruin at the end there: She was completely opposed to it until it came down to, in her words, "a choice of you or two townies."

This is why quotes are necessary for establishing real intent. A before and after isn't going to cut it.
Lenglon made the right call in that situation. If we're talking about real intent, what's your intent on Toony? From where I stand he's looking pretty good but I'm open to complete changes of mind.

Based on all of what? You keep saying everything is inconclusive, then pull out a quick before n after to suddenly reach some conclusions?

And look at what your conclusions are. The two people going at it with now-confirmed scum are town, everyone else is scum. Shakerag's oddly in the middle there, likely because he's never done anything at all, and has thus given you neither an excuse to call him scum nor a lynch-related reason to call him town (or at least notwitch).

This is what confirmation bias does. It convinces you that what you knew was correct, and since you don't know anyone's town unless they've lynched scum, what this is telling you is that those two people are town and everyone else is some manner of scum.

In other words, it's not telling you anything.
I'm open to the idea that there might be some confirmation bias here. What I do know is Birdy and Hapah have done jack all of use with their votes all game and your vote pattern and interactions with scum are suspicious. But look, I know I'm fallible so give me a better explanation if you have one.

I did interact a little with Toaster, just not as much as I'd have liked. Never really got around to it.

Ugh, I already mentioned this the first time you asked about it.
But I just looked at all of Toaster's posts and he never said a thing to you. That in itself is unsurprising, but that you never questioned him, is. 'Never really got around to it' doesn't cut it, especially when the person involved claimed that they were scum.

You then list off some of the accusations and counter them. I don't feel that is particularly scummy. This, however, is:
Town, it's your job to critically examine the votes against the Day 1 lynch lead. Do it.
You talk to the town as if you are not part of it. Strange, is it not? You slipped good there.
NQT, thou art caught.
DS is entirely correct here: WIFOMing about how there's no rival wagon therefore you can't be scum is scummy (and of course false; neither Dariush nor Toaster had credible wagons going at the time of their demise). Trying to convince town to reconsider wait no you're making a mistake is scummy. I don't know that I'd call it an appeal to emotion, but that final "evil wins if you don't vote someone else!" bit is certainly scummy. Referencing town as though you're not part of it isn't a lynch reason, but it's definitely something worth pressuring over.
Yes I'm glad you quoted this bit because you can see that it wasn't for that other stuff that DS voted me: he doesn't find it that scummy. What he supposedly finds scummy is me addressing town as town, which is nonsense. But look, on review, I can see why a town player might act like DS did.

When I accused Dariush he ignored me. When I accused Toaster he cooly brushed it off. You seem to be engaging with the points. This bodes well for you, so I'll extend. I've given my appraisal of the other six players, now you give me yours.



Everyone, there are only six other players now-- please rank them in order of suspicion. It'll only take a moment. This information will be really useful for my next set of investigations.
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birdy51

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Re: Witches' Coven: In the Heart of Darkness [D4: 7/13]
« Reply #1021 on: September 26, 2013, 07:56:49 am »

NQT

Strange that you should now consider me scum, especially after much earlier in the game you are the one who supposedly confirmed the exact opposite.

Ottofar
With this, you confirm your stupidity, or that you are not town. Probably both. Because the town has that as a wincon. Not kill, but eliminate. It is, most likely the same for everyone on town's side.
That's what I wanted to hear Ottofar! Exactement! Okay, you've just told me that you're a town player. My wincon also explicitly states elimination. I guess I was being a bit stupid because I see what you were saying in your earlier post. Unvote. I think you're a terrible tunneling player who has just wasted a lot of time, but at least you're a terrible tunneling town player.

Why would anyone oppose an extend? There's still discussion happening, why cut it short. No townie should oppose an extend.
I was looking to get you lynched today because I was convinced that you were scum. Apparently, you're just really lazy. The extension has passed now.

I assume that this is simply an oversight on your end, or an attempt to motivate me into action. Regardless of whether I am scum or not though, you bring up a valid point in regards to me not voting. The fact that I did not vote is not because I am scum or Third-Party. Rather, I hadn't realized a key element of this game.

The reason that I didn't vote at all during the day is that I like to watch what people do when they aren't pressured. In relaxation, they might be just as easily able to slip. However, I realize now that is shear stupidity. Not because it's not a technique that can be used, but that by using it I completely fly in the face of what I am endeavoring to be. Transparent.

I try to be transparent, because I feel that it is important that one's true colors show. That is why I am quick to offer my opinion on the state of my brother, as his situation bothers me more than anything else and that shows in my posts. Yet, by not specifically going out and stating who I believe is scum, even if I am scum hunting, I deny other's both my opinions and how I reached them. In this way, I am just as bad, if not worse than scum. A vote is not a mere tool to apply pressure, but a flag by which you may state who you believe must be viewed with the most suspicion.  I have been keeping my vote banner in storage, when I should be waving it proudly.

So yes, I can be called incompetent. I accept that.  However, I don't plan on allowing that brand of incompetence to continue. I did reads earlier, but I shall arrange my thoughts in order by who I believe is the most scummy as per your request.

Not Scum

NQT
Toonyman
Lenglon
-
Irony Owl
Shakerag
Hapah

Scum

And yes. Birdy actually voted! I don't have much time to make an argument just yet as I have classes, but I'll Extend so I can throw down some concrete ideas later. Pun is intended.

For now, I'll say this: The focus on Third Parties strikes me as suspicious, because Townie is logically not going to be worried about them as much as a Witch or another Third Party would be.  That is at the core of my argument that I plan to make.


I'll answer other questions as well when I get the chance. I have not forgotten you Irony Owl, or your question. I just want to give it the time that it deserves. It's an interesting one.
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Jim Groovester

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Re: Witches' Coven: In the Heart of Darkness [D4: 7/13]
« Reply #1022 on: September 26, 2013, 08:45:58 am »

Votecount:
IronyOwl  - 4 -  Lenglon, ToonyMan, Shakerag, notquitethere
Hapah  - 1 -  birdy51
Lenglon  - 1 -  Hapah
notquitethere  - 0 - 
birdy51  - 0 - 
Toonyman  - 1 -  IronyOwl
Shakerag  - 0 - 
-
Not Voting  - 0 - 
No Lynch  - 0 - 
-
Extend  - 0 - 
Shorten  - 0 - 



The Day has been extended to Saturday, 28th of September, 7PM UTC.

There are no more extensions.
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I understood nothing, contributed nothing, but still got to win, so good game everybody else.

Hapah

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Re: Witches' Coven: In the Heart of Darkness [D4: 7/13]
« Reply #1023 on: September 26, 2013, 11:25:33 am »

PFP

Quote from: NQT
Everyone, there are only six other players now-- please rank them in order of suspicion. It'll only take a moment. This information will be really useful for my next set of investigations.

From less to more:

-NQT
-Toony
-IO (haven't reviewed the big posts since my post yesterday though)
-Shake
-Birdy
-Leng
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birdy51

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Re: Witches' Coven: In the Heart of Darkness [D4: 7/13]
« Reply #1024 on: September 26, 2013, 02:46:23 pm »

Alright I promised an explanation so here it is:

I believe placing too much emphasis on the Death Shaman/ Life Shaman aspect is a scum tell, at least in this environment. Toaster was quick to sink his fangs into Tiruin, even onto Day 2. He was determined to see her dead, and staying dead. This fact was later confirmed by both the Dariush Conversations with Toonyman and Toaster. Witches have an investment in killing the Shamans.

Which is why I have Shakerag and Hapah near the bottom rung of my scum ladder. Hapah is resides on the lowest rung due him stating that his agenda was to identify who the Death Shaman is.  Shakerag is not too far away, having Vector's very focused arguments against Third Parties on Day 1 to contend with.

IronyOwl has created her own special case, in that she believes Toonyman has something to hide and that she has successfully made me curious as well, for reasons that will be talked about here:

--

IronyOwl

birdy:
As regards to you and Toonyman, I am mostly indifferent. I don't find much reason to suspect Toonyman of ill intent, nor do I suspect him as the last witch. Even if he were third party, I highly doubt it would be a game changer. At best, I am a skeptical of your tactics.
How about his tactics, then?

 I really like this question. It forces me to look in a different direction, which I honestly needed to do. I disbelieve the notion that Toonyman is a malicious character, however the fact that he is hiding information suddenly bothers me. 

Quote
Toonyman:

@Birdy:
ToonyMan:
Lenglon and Birdy are probably town, I just got an intuition buzz for some reason.
This is a bit of an old quote, but I finally noticed it and now I am curious. What made you assume that both me and Lenglon are Town?
Hehehe, I have reason to believe your claims and take no benefit from doubting them.  I'm pretty sure both of you are town but I probably shouldn't say why unless I was like, on the lynch rope.
I think I might see. You had some very adventurous teenage years, didn't you, Toony? How old were you when you were wed, and how old are Leng and Birdy? And you're, what, 32 years old now?

Damn nobles and their secrets. It's a conspiracy with the gubberment I tell you...

I'll leave it be regardless, as I feel little reason to feel suspicious of you either. Even if you are a Third Party, it does little good right now for me to start information fishing unless it somehow leads to figuring out who the witch is.

Also, I looked up. I am actually far older than I thought I was, at the ample age of 28. Seems we are right around nearly the same age… If we survive this madness, would care to join me for a drink?

I stated this earlier and promptly dropped the argument for better or worse. Presently, let us return to it. Toonyman seemed fairly willing to ignore this statement, seeing as his next post to me didn't even respond to my request to become drinking buddies. I have been slighted.

Therefore, I agree with you. Toonyman is withholding information, and I should wonder if it's a touchier sort of subject. I shall also look into it.

Toonyman

Here is where things get sneaky. The assumption is made that the Death Shaman killed Leafsnail. Rotting plants seem to be his MO. Not taking body parts. Likewise, it's never been assumed that Witch's feel the urge to take body parts. I theorize that for whatever reason, Solifuge/Okami  may have been the one to take Tiruin's eye.  Why I do not know…
Well if the Dark Child is dead it's hard to see that being relevant anymore.

A correction. It probably isn't relevant for you. I however, am still at a complete loss at what this means specifically for me. My flavor mentions a few choice things, my upbringing, the nature of my parents and my master, how my parents died, and that I was taken in. Colin/ Solifuge was essentially a footnote in that story, and yet he seems to been a core part of this game.

From his perspective, the question is reversed. What did I mean to him? How did I tie in to his story? Not knowing the answer to those two questions bothers me. The only thing I can do is speculate what kind of character he was.

--

Now, Toonyman. I am inclined to believe that Irony Owl is raising a valid point in the fact that your behavior is odd. You know something that supposedly makes me and Lenglon Town, but you cannot say why. How did you come across this information? Was it by your own means, or did someone else give it to you?
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Lenglon

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Re: Witches' Coven: In the Heart of Darkness [D4: 7/13]
« Reply #1025 on: September 26, 2013, 02:55:52 pm »

my list:
notquitethere - town
Toonyman
Hapah
birdy51
Shakerag
IronyOwl - scum

I was looking at Irony's early actions during D1 more closely than her later ones, leading to my misperception.

what else have I missed that was asked of me again?
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notquitethere

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Re: Witches' Coven: In the Heart of Darkness [D4: 7/13]
« Reply #1026 on: September 26, 2013, 03:08:48 pm »

Hapah, thanks for the rankings. Apologies if you've answered this already but why didn't you vote on day 3?
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notquitethere

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Re: Witches' Coven: In the Heart of Darkness [D4: 7/13]
« Reply #1027 on: September 26, 2013, 03:13:16 pm »

Also, Hapah and Shakerag, I know you didn't personally take these actions, but was it the right call of griffinpup and Vector to try to get Tiruin killed again after she resurrected?

Toonyman, something's been bothering me. Why did you go along with Dariush in your private chat? Why didn't you get him lynched straight away, given your purported wincon?
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Shakerag

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Re: Witches' Coven: In the Heart of Darkness [D4: 7/13]
« Reply #1028 on: September 26, 2013, 04:05:11 pm »

NQT:
Also, Hapah and Shakerag, I know you didn't personally take these actions, but was it the right call of griffinpup and Vector to try to get Tiruin killed again after she resurrected?
If I were playing back then, I don't think I would have gone after Tiruin, no. 


Everyone, there are only six other players now-- please rank them in order of suspicion. It'll only take a moment. This information will be really useful for my next set of investigations.
notquitethere - town
Lenglon
Toonyman
birdy51
Hapah
IronyOwl - scum


Hapah

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Re: Witches' Coven: In the Heart of Darkness [D4: 7/13]
« Reply #1029 on: September 26, 2013, 04:13:33 pm »

PFP

Hapah, thanks for the rankings. Apologies if you've answered this already but why didn't you vote on day 3?
I spent most of the day figuring out the shape of the game. By the time I felt like I might've had a grip on it Toaster had made his claim as a Witch, and I spent most of the rest of the day arguing that he would've been more useful alive than dead. If I would've voted someone it probably would have been Leaf, but it would've been a really flimsy vote for day-end.

Also, Hapah and Shakerag, I know you didn't personally take these actions, but was it the right call of griffinpup and Vector to try to get Tiruin killed again after she resurrected?
Was it before or after you caught Dar?
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notquitethere

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Hapah
Was it before or after you caught Dar?
After!

Spoiler: My post #589 (click to show/hide)

Spoiler: Griffinpup's post #626 (click to show/hide)

So was the case against Tiruin better than mine against Dariush at the time? Also, you appear to be quite the outlier on Lenglon's scumminess, and the core disagreement seems to be down to whether we should be actively hunting 3rd parties. Am I right in thinking we should prioritise 3rd-party hunting over witch hunting?
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Hapah

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Re: Witches' Coven: In the Heart of Darkness [D4: 7/13]
« Reply #1031 on: September 26, 2013, 05:43:29 pm »

PFP

Since it was after then he should've been leaning on Dar. Lynching a confirmed 3rd party isn't usually a bad move, but if you catch someone in a lie like that you've gotta squeeze them and see what comes out (esp. since you had confirmed your flavor-cop power to a reasonable degree of certainty in your post below).

And oh no, I'm not voting Leng for not being concerned about 3rd parties: I disagree with her, but it's not hard to see where Leng (and a couple others I think) are/were coming from and I don't think it's scummy. I'm voting Leng because it looks like she "invented" or took very liberal/one-sided interpretations of a few facts and is trying really hard to make IO look scummy, and it hasn't really been addressed and it feels off. I don't know why everyone else is letting it slide, but I'd like it if folks took a look.

Gotta run some errands; will try to read the big posts and give feedback when I get back.
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Hapah

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Re: Witches' Coven: In the Heart of Darkness [D4: 7/13]
« Reply #1032 on: September 27, 2013, 12:10:39 am »

Sorry boys and girls, it's gonna have to wait until in the morning.
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birdy51

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Re: Witches' Coven: In the Heart of Darkness [D4: 7/13]
« Reply #1033 on: September 27, 2013, 03:50:59 pm »

Seems everyone is a bit busy... I've hit Homecoming Weekend as a vocalist, so I shall have very limited posting capabilities Friday-Saturday.
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ToonyMan

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Re: Witches' Coven: In the Heart of Darkness [D4: 7/13]
« Reply #1034 on: September 27, 2013, 04:31:00 pm »

Hey it's Friday I have time for a post.  This is a pre-post so I don't get prodded or something.

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