Extend. Twilight is useless.
birdy:As regards to you and Toonyman, I am mostly indifferent. I don't find much reason to suspect Toonyman of ill intent, nor do I suspect him as the last witch. Even if he were third party, I highly doubt it would be a game changer. At best, I am a skeptical of your tactics.
How about his tactics, then?
Toony:ToonyMan:
You know as well as I do. (I'm only human!)
"I dun goofed" would explain a lot of your actions, actually.
How hard do you think you're goofing right now?
None at all.
That's worrisome.
And I was completely right about Toaster (in an inverse way, but still completely right). I also made my own opinions before Dariush said anything, read the log I posted. Who do I still think is a witch? There is only one left and it has to be either you (or Lenglon if it somehow isn't you). And no, unfortunately I don't have concrete proof who the last witch is, but that would make it too easy anyway.
Do you have any proof? Near as I can tell your case on me is "Fuck you." I don't recall your case on Lenglon at all.
A summary of my case is at the bottom here.
If it somehow isn't you then it must be Lenglon (or Shakerag now that I think about it), but it's not a possibility I can see ever unless you're dead and flip not-witch mother.
Against Toaster, yeah. What does your case against Toaster have to do with me?
I got Toaster in association with Dariush. I can do the same with you.
Then why aren't you?
I am voting you.
Voting me isn't the same as connecting me with Dariush. You've got absolutely no case on me except an OMGUS.
And I thought you had good reason to believe Lenglon was town? What makes her more suspect than birdy, who you have similar assurances about, or Hapah, who you don't even have that much on?
If you somehow aren't the witch then yeah, it's probably Lenglon. But this isn't lylo.
Why?
Because if you aren't the last witch then possible deductions would be child bearers Lenglon and Shakerag. And I was only guessing that it isn't lylo, but it most likely isn't. Lenglon was also protecting Toaster or something, but I find it less of a tell than Leafsnail because they acted the same with NQT's/Ottofar's/Everybody's lynch way back when.
Child bearers? I'm a maiden, bro.
Wait. I just realized that could be why you don't have kids- to fit into the maiden category for some reason, or maybe not cleanly fit into any of them. Hrm.
No no, you vote me over a dumb reason (and nobody else is convinced), but also I can pin-point when you started "attacking" me. That would be D3 when I started voting Toaster. Toaster was a witch.
I don't see this as a coincidence.
Alright then, let me take a look at that.
...
That's stupid. You first voted Toaster- actually, you were voting Toaster since D2. You revoted him your first post of D3- after, I am amused to add, Lenglon did. Not so hipster after all, it seems.
I didn't vote you until several posts and a lot of discussion later,
when you dodged my question. Admittedly not nearly as much of it as I'd thought, but some of it nonetheless.
Did you just admit to OMGUSing me?
No.
Yeah you did. You said so right above there.
Cut the bullshit.
You first. You've got nothing to say to a charge of OMGUS but "yeah sure."
We lynch you. You flip witch, either the game ends (or at least the town wins) or the game doesn't end and we solve the last puzzle.
You don't flip witch, we find the last witch. I have supicions it must be either Lenglon or Shakerag, which are both valid choices but we'll need more detail. I don't have time to interrogate them today (another school exam in less than an hour).
Sun day or mafia day?
You should probably extend if it's the latter.
While I'm at it, what do you think of my current exchange with Toony?
Ahaha
Something funny? What do you think of NQT's and Lenglon's cases on me, by the way? They're on the right target, but is it for the right reasons?
Hapah:Also, if you are the Witch, this is probably where you should spill the beans.
I'm not.
NQT:All, especially Toony and Lenglon: Look, there's a lot of info here. Most of it is hard data and you might be able to draw other conclusions. I want to know what you think.
I can do a more thorough analysis if you'd like, but the short answer is that it's some interesting insights (if true) at the beginning followed by a lot of confirmation bias.
In brief:
Well, I just looked over every single one of Dariush and Toaster's posts. Some interesting facts emerge:
- Toaster repeatedly pressured people for voting Ottofar (ZU, Leafsnail and Lenglon) and declared him (useless) town.
- Dariush never interacted with the Griffinpup/Hapah slot, Toaster prodded it many times.
- Neither of them ever addressed the Okami/Solifuge slot.
- Toaster completely ignored the Deathsword/Irony Owl slot, while Dariush directed some weak defensive posts after IO put in a bandwagon vote.
- They both only ever lightly questioned and prodded the Vector/Shakerag slot.
- They were congenial and explanatory with one another.
---
- They were both very critical of NQT, Tiruin, Lenglon.
- Dariush was very aggressive with Toony, Toaster was defensive but conciliatory.
Specific scum actions here are interesting if true, like Toaster pressuring people over Ottofar or Dariush's and Toaster's aggression towards yourself. The problem is that I'm not too sure of your analysis; for instance, you say Toaster was critical of Lenglon, but was he justified in being so? Unless you've got something to suggest that they were acting
strangely in doing something, it's just WIFOM to speculate as to why they did it.
Speaking of which, your "lack of" observations are basically entirely in that category. "Toaster and Dariush were congenial and explanatory with each other" is interesting to note, if true. "Toaster hardly ever poked Solifuge" is not unless, again, there's something explicitly strange about it. In the same way that Toaster and Dariush buddying up is only interesting if they weren't buddy-buddy with anyone else, Toaster never hunting specific people really isn't a good clue.
More broadly, we know that the Witches have an incentive to kill Tiruin and me (as life shaman and inspector, respectively), we also know that they most likely have to achieve this using a lynch. They're also likely to avoid the exact patterns of voting to prevent being too closely linked.
Deathsword and Ottofar both tried to have me hung when the early Toaster/Dariush wagon was in full flow, but neither of them voted Tiruin.
Vector and griffinpup both had votes on Tiruin at various points (the former especially), but neither ever voted me.
Having a wide-spread of targets is a pro-town sign (as you genuinely suspect everyone), and NQT, Leafsnail, Toonyman and Vector all have 5+ attack targets (Leafsnail had 10, I've voted or FOS'd everyone, Toony and Vector have 5). Deathsword and IronyOwl have 4. Birdy, Solifuge, Hapah, Tiruin, Dariush and Toaster all had 3 or less targets. Birdy/Ottofar, strikingly, has only voted for me once and no one else.
Then you go purely WIFOM and useless. For instance, you insist that scum is likely to want you and Tiruin dead (and apparently know about both of you) to justify saying that people voting either might be scum. But then you say that they're likely to spread out to avoid being too obvious to justify them
not voting you but still being scum. Essentially, you've said that people are scum when they vote you and still scum when they're not voting you.
That's not something you can draw actual conclusions from. It's something you can use to convince yourself of what you already think is true.
Hmm... Let's see see end-of-day analysis:
Day 1
Ignoring Tiruin, votes are split into five groups, with the two confirmed scum on different lynches and griffinpup absent. We know now that the three lynch-candidates are not-mafia. Wouldn't be surprised if third scum is either Ironyowl, griffinpup or Toonyman, hedging their bets three ways.
Day 2
Six groups this time. Dariush is the clear vote lead, with two confirmed town voting for him, ZU who never flipped, Lenglon who the two confirmed scum have consistently sparred with and IronyOwl who could be cheaply bussing. Toaster has a weak prod vote on griffinpup, and Dariush and griffinpup are going after the lynch-3rd party votes. Toony and Tiruin have a vote against now confirmed scum Toaster. Presumably Okami want me dead before I can investigate him more and birdy and Vector are probably absent for out of game reasons, but perhaps not.
Day 3
An interesting one, four groups: Toaster claims scum and confirmed townies NQT and Leafsnail are on the lynch, lead by Toony (who comes out of this looking good). Almost everyone else piles on, including (perhaps reluctantly?) the suspicious birdy and the malevolent 3rd party Solifuge. Toaster and Hapah (griffinpups replacement) abstain, IronyOwl goes after the ringleader Toony while Lenglon tackles the now confirmed townie Leafsnail.
Day 4
So, Birdy is hedging his bets, Hapah is on Lenglon whilst Owl is on Toony.
Again useless. You mention that it's inconclusive, so I'll skip the majority of it, but notice how, again, you're picking the explanation that confirms what you already know.
Day 1, confirmed scum are voting you and Tiruin, so you say the third scum is probably elsewhere... even though you claim they explicitly wanted both of you dead.
Day 2, you assume Okami's trying to kill you to keep you quiet, but you've got no explanation for why you'd think that
beyond that he's voting you. Voting Dariush is also a towntell for some people and inconclusive for others.
Day 3, you don't have any broader conclusions, but voting Toaster is once again a towntell for some and a nulltell for others.
Day 4, no conclusions, except that birdy's lack of vote is "hedging his bets."
That's all inconclusive. So let's look at the vote count for two game-changing events: Before my roleclaim (scum knew my alignment before this because Toaster knew) and before Toaster's reveal.
Before NQT's claim
So this was a near-lynch scenario, hence why I claimed. Lenglon and ZU carry the switch in the light of Tiruin claiming town. ZU is big on the Tiruin lynch which makes me think he's the DeathShaman.
Before Toaster's reveal
Unsurprisingly, Toaster reveals when he's the lynch candidate. There's a bunch of people not doing anything (including a malicious 3rd party). Toony and town-player Leaf are on Toaster's case and Lenglon has just switched to it. I'd recently switched off it to pressure Shakerag, but my suspicions were still there. Toaster is continuing his weak Hapah(griffinpup) line. The latter had been lurking the entire game so might have made a decent scapegoat vote. Irony is on Toony (who led the Toaster lynch). This doesn't bode well for IO.
Still useless. Notice Lenglon's reasoning for voting Tiruin at the end there: She was completely opposed to it until it came down to, in her words, "a choice of you or two townies."
This is why quotes are necessary for establishing real intent. A before and after isn't going to cut it.
Based on all of the above.
griffinpup/Hapah is possibly a 3rd party or possibly just a serial lurker slot.
Ottofar/Birdy is probably a malicious 3rd party or possibly just grossly incompetent.
Irony Owl is almost certainly scum.
In case I die in the night and IO isn't the third witch, then I support a Birdy lynch and then a Hapah lynch, in that order unless strong new information comes to light.
Lenglon and Toony are almost certainly town. Shakerag is moderately suspicious and is my second Death Shaman pick after ZU.
Based on all of what? You keep saying everything is inconclusive, then pull out a quick before n after to suddenly reach some conclusions?
And look at what your conclusions
are. The two people going at it with now-confirmed scum are town, everyone else is scum. Shakerag's oddly in the middle there, likely because he's never done anything at all, and has thus given you neither an excuse to call him scum nor a lynch-related reason to call him town (or at least notwitch).
This is what confirmation bias does. It convinces you that what you knew was correct, and since you don't know anyone's town unless they've lynched scum, what this is telling you is that those two people are town and everyone else is some manner of scum.
In other words, it's not telling you anything.
Irony Owl, any reason why you never interacted with Toaster? Pretty sure you were both active at the same time. Also, if Deathsword had a legitimate case against me I'd damn well like to hear it. Convince me that he didn't replace out because he knew he was too weaksauce to justify himself.
I did interact a little with Toaster, just not as much as I'd have liked. Never really got around to it.
Ugh, I already mentioned this the first time you asked about it. Now I can't find it, though. In any case:
Everyone
[Think about this carefully. If I'm scum, where's my scum team to make an alternative case? Look at the votes-- they're evenly spread except for on me. I'm willing to bet that this pattern has never been seen on a day 1 scum lynch before. All it takes for evil to prevail is you all doing nothing.
This is some massive bullshit. Just because it never happened before it does not mean it'll never happen. In BM XL I fakeclaimed and borno counterclaimed. Had it ever happened before in a BM? Probably not. Did it still happen? Yes, it did. And don't think I haven't noticed your appeal to emotion at the end.
You then list off some of the accusations and counter them. I don't feel that is particularly scummy. This, however, is:
Town, it's your job to critically examine the votes against the Day 1 lynch lead. Do it.
You talk to the town as if you are not part of it. Strange, is it not? You slipped good there.
NQT, thou art caught.
On a personal note unrelated to the case: NQT, you can RP to your heart's content as long as you still scumhunt, but, seriously, stop with the fake french accent.
DS is entirely correct here: WIFOMing about how there's no rival wagon therefore you can't be scum is scummy (and of course false; neither Dariush nor Toaster had credible wagons going at the time of their demise). Trying to convince town to reconsider wait no you're making a mistake is scummy. I don't know that I'd call it an appeal to emotion, but that final "evil wins if you don't vote someone else!" bit is certainly scummy. Referencing town as though you're not part of it isn't a lynch reason, but it's definitely something worth pressuring over.
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Topic: Witches' Coven: In the Heart of Darkness [GAME OVER: 4/13] (Read 204632 times)