Hoped to brush this up a bit more, but it's late so it'll have to do.
Here's the thing. Let's imagine that, against all probability and common sense, Toaster is actually telling the truth. Let's say we go along with what he says and kills all the townies.
What incentive does he have to go for the difficult win condition that requires him to trust the shamans and risks having the game time out? He would instead go for his standard mafia win condition.
Is anyone seriously advocating this besides Leng? I hope I wasn't misunderstood: I think chancing everything on the "Magic is Friendship" club singing circle is madness. However, I think lynching him right away is reckless and wasteful: our short-term goals are compatible, and the Witch has tools that we could use to our advantage.
Looking at past WC games, I'm still inclined to think the witches are the "red herring" (scum)team.
From the bit I've learned I'm in agreement. The rift seems to be getting angrier either with time or with Witch lynches (see spoiler'd text below for references). I'm starting to wonder if this Papal army is actually what it claims as well; as the text from the Bull references the Rhine river valley and we're about as far off from that as you could get while still being in France (I've not a clue what I could do about it if they are here for some other purpose, though). The witches also likely aren't the cause of the town's troubles, for what that's worth: the problems apparently date back for quite some time, and if NQT is to be believed the Witches have only been here for a matter of days. It's a few little things pointing in that direction, and I doubt it's all a coincidence. Tir had a post with a couple of the resources that I'll try to dig up (PPE:
here)
Toony: What'd you whisper to your guard in the D1 opener?
Toaster: Not to be a nag, but what can you tell me of Shamans? Where do they come from? Do they Borrow as Witches do? Are they born into it? Are they just created out of thin air?
The Inquisitor does little but glare. After a moment, he says – as much to himself as to the audience – “You know nothing. Nothing about what could happen later, the havoc that would be wrought in the centuries to come.” He looks down, silent. Demons were already stirring in their sleep - in men’s hearts, and within the earth itself.
The slight mist, a remnant from the rain, hovered over the ground and in ripples in the air; a ghostly apparition of riverwater, heavy with a dreamy languor, it flowed across the town and through people’s hearts, its undercurrents creeping across the pale grass. The sky, blanketed by low grey clouds, had just then taken on a strange greenish cast – and the elder inquisitor looked up, apprehensive. Patches of spectral green had lit up and crawled across the underbelly of the clouds – but had disappeared after only a few moments, as if they were never there. He blinked several times, like a man who had seen a silhouette in the dark of his eyes but which, turning to look, had disappeared.
“We have killed a witch!” His shout, the tolling of a bell, cuts through the stillness – and, in that moment, a jagged scar of blue-white light shatters the clouds above. The thunder rumbles the echo of his words. As each drop begins to fall, its strike seems to be a voice of its own, in miniature – and his will seems to resound, with each cry the sound growing and multiplying- “a witch” each one shouts, and as the beast mounts again the multitudes rise to a shrill roar – “witch” the storm cries out, “witch”, the momentum seems unstoppable, the chant surged, thick and urgent – until the drops drown themselves out in their fervour, and the chant slurs together into a steady pitter-patter of falling rain.
Assertion 1: Toaster is telling the truth
just trust me here, toaster isn't lying.
You're asking for a lot of trust and raising a lot of questions in the process. How do you "just know"?
No. The actual witch plan is "Lynch all townies, win, laugh at how stupid the townies were afterwards". But the backup plan is "Lynch the guy who isn't the reviver so we can buy more time and keep reviving our own guys" (I already stated the witch revive may have unlimited uses).
What good would buying time do? If all are identified and they've got no kill how would they ever catch up?