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Author Topic: Roguelike Mafia 6 - Sanity Reigns [Game Over]  (Read 98064 times)

Hapah

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Re: Roguelike Mafia 6 - Can't Catch a Break [Day 3]
« Reply #465 on: April 18, 2013, 02:30:08 pm »

PFP

Extend.

Quote from: LNCP
You're forgetting Leafsnail. Now, I admit I'm unfamiliar with Toaster's setup, but I assume there's just one scumteam considering it wasn't mentioned anywhere in the OP and specific factions aren't mentioned either. That means, in your situation, it was alamoes/IG/Leafsnail, which I would definitely not label as "rudderless" - at least for D1.
Right, and that's what I'm getting at. If the team is IG/ala/Leaf, they certainly weren't rudderless D1. But Leaf got killed in the first night.  I don't think dead men can talk in the scumchat, which would mean that the mastermind/driver of the scumteam (Leaf) was removed; and as a result you might be able to see a drop in post quality. You can kinda see it in ala, but I don't see the same in IG. It's an observation.

Quote from: LNCP
Hapah, I don't like how you've voted IG so close to day end based on policy. This isn't D1, and pushing a lurker lynch when it is very likely lylo, or at the very least lylo-1, is very unwise. What's your case on IG, now that we are in D3? Have you made any thorough attempts on the others here? What makes you pick IG over the others, despite having already implied your town read of him and made a point toward that case?
He hasn't been in the damn thread since Saturday, alright? He either needs to do something (hell, anything) or request a replacement. Enough is enough.
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Toaster

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Re: Roguelike Mafia 6 - Can't Catch a Break [Day 3]
« Reply #466 on: April 18, 2013, 02:56:24 pm »

Vote Count:

Hapah:
Okami No Rei:
lordnincompoop: zombie urist
Imperial Guardsman: Hapah
zombie urist: Okami No Rei

Not Voting:  lordnincompoop, Imperial Guardsman


Day has been extended.  Day 3 will last until Friday, 4/19 at 11 PM EST.
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HMR stands for Hazardous Materials Requisition, not Horrible Massive Ruination, though I can understand how one could get confused.
God help us if we have to agree on pizza toppings at some point. There will be no survivors.

lordnincompoop

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Re: Roguelike Mafia 6 - Can't Catch a Break [Day 3]
« Reply #467 on: April 18, 2013, 04:51:00 pm »

Extend.

My reads:

When reading zombie urist's D1 and D2 play, my gut told me there was something going on. To that end, I investigated further, but I didn't find much that stood out - I read through all of in Paranormal 21, Supernatural 5, and Mein Kampf, where he acted as town, town and scum respectively, in order to see whether I'd be able to distinguish his play on alignment or at the very least apply something from those plays here. What I learned? Not all that much, unfortunately. I can't put a finger on what he does.

I still don't like it, though. If we get this extend I'm going to dig in on this.

I don't think Okami is scum. Again, this is assuming there is only one scumteam. His D1 behaviour, seem from the scum perspective, doesn't really line up with their motives. Support Leafsnail into a successful D1 mislynch with his "gambit" fuss, only to bus him during the night? It doesn't make sense. Of course, the claim on D2 is still incredibly off-putting, and this doesn't cover two options: One, that he fakeclaimed the scroll of death - which I don't think is likely, as someone else would likely have called him. Second is that this really is a bus, which would be the strangest bus to date, considering that neither one was in any significant trouble at that time and the only one seriously pursuing Leafsnail's case - as in, enough to vote or at least FOS - was Tiruin. Again, not enough to nightkill the most experienced member on your team, so it doesn't add up.

That leaves Hapah. You and zombie urist are the only ones that have a good chance of being scum.


It's almost midnight now. I've things to do tomorrow, so I'll end it here for tonight.
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lordnincompoop

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Re: Roguelike Mafia 6 - Can't Catch a Break [Day 3]
« Reply #468 on: April 18, 2013, 04:54:22 pm »

EBWOP, Hapah

Right, and that's what I'm getting at. If the team is IG/ala/Leaf, they certainly weren't rudderless D1. But Leaf got killed in the first night.  I don't think dead men can talk in the scumchat, which would mean that the mastermind/driver of the scumteam (Leaf) was removed; and as a result you might be able to see a drop in post quality. You can kinda see it in ala, but I don't see the same in IG. It's an observation.

Fair enough.

He hasn't been in the damn thread since Saturday, alright? He either needs to do something (hell, anything) or request a replacement. Enough is enough.

That's it? That's all you have on D3? I get that IG is a lurker, and if he gets the prod I requested, he'll be here soon, but what the fuck were you doing before I replaced in?

What happened to building cases? Don't you have anything on anyone else?
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Toaster

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Re: Roguelike Mafia 6 - Can't Catch a Break [Day 3]
« Reply #469 on: April 18, 2013, 08:29:43 pm »

Extend.

Again?



Oh yeah, forgot to mention I prodded Imperial Guardsman and Okami.
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HMR stands for Hazardous Materials Requisition, not Horrible Massive Ruination, though I can understand how one could get confused.
God help us if we have to agree on pizza toppings at some point. There will be no survivors.

Hapah

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Re: Roguelike Mafia 6 - Can't Catch a Break [Day 3]
« Reply #470 on: April 18, 2013, 08:41:25 pm »

Quote from: LNCP
I don't think Okami is scum. Again, this is assuming there is only one scumteam. His D1 behaviour, seem from the scum perspective, doesn't really line up with their motives. Support Leafsnail into a successful D1 mislynch with his "gambit" fuss, only to bus him during the night? It doesn't make sense. Of course, the claim on D2 is still incredibly off-putting, and this doesn't cover two options: One, that he fakeclaimed the scroll of death - which I don't think is likely, as someone else would likely have called him. Second is that this really is a bus, which would be the strangest bus to date, considering that neither one was in any significant trouble at that time and the only one seriously pursuing Leafsnail's case - as in, enough to vote or at least FOS - was Tiruin. Again, not enough to nightkill the most experienced member on your team, so it doesn't add up.
It's possible that he got the scroll, was redirected or somesuch, and claimed the kill to salvage a bad situation. But yeah, I get what you are driving at.

That's it? That's all you have on D3? I get that IG is a lurker, and if he gets the prod I requested, he'll be here soon, but what the fuck were you doing before I replaced in?

What happened to building cases? Don't you have anything on anyone else?
It's hard to do much of anything when 3 of 7 were requesting replacements, yeah? And work was kicking my ass besides.

I'm voting IG now because if he keeps doing what he's doing, he's a serious liability. If he does damn near anything I'll think about moving my vote, but I'm done giving him a free pass. IG isn't posting, Okami isn't posting, I think you (LNCP) are probably Town based on mechanics, which leaves only ZU to question. I think he's a little scummy (he's got that negative slant on nearly every statement kinda like NQT had), but I want to see the others (especially IG) post. Does this answer your question?
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Okami No Rei

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Re: Roguelike Mafia 6 - Can't Catch a Break [Day 3]
« Reply #471 on: April 18, 2013, 10:47:25 pm »

Since IG's post quality didn't decrease are you saying that he's not scum?
I'm saying I would have expected it to if he was.
I'd say that the fact it hasn't gone down means nothing, since there's really no further down to go.



lordnincompoop
This goes for you too, Okami. This isn't over yet. What are you doing?
Hapah pretty much nailed it, here:
It's hard to do much of anything when 3 of 7 were requesting replacements, yeah? And work was kicking my ass besides.



Hapah, would you elaborate on this:
I think you (LNCP) are probably Town based on mechanics,



I'm voting IG now because if he keeps doing what he's doing, he's a serious liability.
I agree.  Even if he flips Town, as long as we have only the one Town kill tonight, we'll still be at LyLo.
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...start thinking that everything somebody does is scummy or that everything is part of some scummy plan to be incredibly devious and mislead the town...

Hapah

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Re: Roguelike Mafia 6 - Can't Catch a Break [Day 3]
« Reply #472 on: April 18, 2013, 11:15:10 pm »

Okami: Sure. I don't know why Deathsword (who LNCP replaced in for) would have used a Scroll of Phasing N1 if he was scum. The value of a N1 block pales in comparison to the power of a LYLO-breaker.
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zombie urist

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Re: Roguelike Mafia 6 - Can't Catch a Break [Day 3]
« Reply #473 on: April 18, 2013, 11:19:06 pm »

My reads at this point:

Okami - town
IG - likely town
Hapah - kinda town
LNCP - pretty scummy

I agree with what LNCP said about Okami and the kill on LS. I really think IG is just a terrible player, especially given what happened in the beginner's mafia. But if he's scum, I wouldn't be surprised. Hapah got into a pretty big argument with LS D1, which is why I really don't think he's scum either. So that basically leaves DS/LNCP. LNCP provided a reasonable defense of what I said earlier, but based on DS's actions, especially his bandwagon on NQT make him scummiest in my view.

PPE'd Hapah

Okami: Sure. I don't know why Deathsword (who LNCP replaced in for) would have used a Scroll of Phasing N1 if he was scum. The value of a N1 block pales in comparison to the power of a LYLO-breaker.
This... is actually a good point. But his reasons, IIRC for using it on Ford were pretty weak.

Gonna think this through later.
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lordnincompoop

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Re: Roguelike Mafia 6 - Can't Catch a Break [Day 3]
« Reply #474 on: April 18, 2013, 11:49:28 pm »

Moderator:
Extend.

Again?

Yeah, again. I need to build cases on zombie urist and Hapah, which isn't a trivial feat, and I want to have a second look at everyone else and the confirmed scum in case I missed something. Imperial Guardsman needs to post, and I want Okami and Hapah to actually do something today. Deadline by Friday isn't going to cut it. Sorry, boss.

Hapah:
It's possible that he got the scroll, was redirected or somesuch, and claimed the kill to salvage a bad situation. But yeah, I get what you are driving at.

That works, actually. It doesn't depend on strange behaviour on Okami's part. What I'm wondering, though, is how likely a scroll/rod/staff of redirect would end up used like this.

I'm voting IG now because if he keeps doing what he's doing, he's a serious liability. If he does damn near anything I'll think about moving my vote, but I'm done giving him a free pass. IG isn't posting, Okami isn't posting, I think you (LNCP) are probably Town based on mechanics, which leaves only ZU to question. I think he's a little scummy (he's got that negative slant on nearly every statement kinda like NQT had), but I want to see the others (especially IG) post. Does this answer your question?

You had all that work in D1 and D2 to go off. D3 is going terribly, but that doesn't mean you're prevented from making cases and reads. You had two game-days to investigate players - what happened to all that evidence? Or did you just tunnel NQT all the way through the game?
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Hapah

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Re: Roguelike Mafia 6 - Can't Catch a Break [Day 3]
« Reply #475 on: April 19, 2013, 12:16:57 am »

I'm game for an Extend as well, joining a game late in is a pain in the ass. We should try to reach a decision by Monday, though.

Quote from: LNCP
That works, actually. It doesn't depend on strange behaviour on Okami's part. What I'm wondering, though, is how likely a scroll/rod/staff of redirect would end up used like this.
Yeah. The big snag for me is that nobody else said anything about it: if I redirected A to B and B ended up dead I'd definitely put that on the table. Also, on reflection, Okami's claim doesn't seem that odd: it's not like he's a vig where he has to worry about his life, the scroll is a one-and-done job. He hit paydirt with his trump card and claimed it, and had no real reason not to.

Quote from: LNCP
You had all that work in D1 and D2 to go off. D3 is going terribly, but that doesn't mean you're prevented from making cases and reads. You had two game-days to investigate players - what happened to all that evidence? Or did you just tunnel NQT all the way through the game?
You're right, of course. It's just demoralizing to see the game grind to a halt, you know? I'll see if I can fit in rereads for the living this weekend.

And it's true, I did tunnel NQT pretty hard, but that's what it took to get the job done. I tried to get Zrk off the hook D1, but I guess I wasn't persuasive enough.
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lordnincompoop

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Re: Roguelike Mafia 6 - Can't Catch a Break [Day 3]
« Reply #476 on: April 19, 2013, 02:42:03 am »

I can't do a really solid post until this evening, but I dislike how you guys keep refusing to give me a straight answer. "Dude, I totally agree" and "But nobody is posting anything" isn't what I expect from 1: People with your kind of experience, who have gone through enough games to know how to play, and 2: Town. Okami and Hapah, what are your reads on people here?

Since I know you're rereading, Hapah, so I'm willing to wait for a detailed response, but I'd at least like a summary of what your impression is of the players here.

zombie urist, what makes you think Okami, Hapah and IG here are town?
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Toaster

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Re: Roguelike Mafia 6 - Can't Catch a Break [Day 3]
« Reply #477 on: April 19, 2013, 07:57:37 am »

Vote Count:

Hapah: lordnincompoop
Okami No Rei:
lordnincompoop: zombie urist
Imperial Guardsman: Hapah
zombie urist: Okami No Rei

Not Voting:  Imperial Guardsman


Day has been extended.  Day 3 will last until Monday, 4/22 at 11 PM EST.


Moderator:
Extend.

Again?

Yeah, again.

Just wanted to make sure, since it came right after the extension went through.
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HMR stands for Hazardous Materials Requisition, not Horrible Massive Ruination, though I can understand how one could get confused.
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lordnincompoop

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Re: Roguelike Mafia 6 - Can't Catch a Break [Day 3]
« Reply #478 on: April 21, 2013, 02:34:50 pm »

Fuck, where is everyone? I feel like I'm the only guy playing here.

I've been going two people's posting histories like I've said. Screw meta - other people can do that.

There are several things about zombie urist's play that stick out to me.

Zrk2: I believe you're wrong. If Alamoes was scum, he'd have teammates coaching him. He doesn't look coached. Freshman is (was) far more likely to be scum because of his relative silence. There are things missing from his posts that I would expect to see, and I feel like I'm only hearing part of the conversation.
Personally, I find a lot of noobtells and towntells in his posts. I've not seen a single thing that makes him scummy in my book.
Why are you defending him? Captain Ford

(I've fixed this quote to show what he actually meant.) This one sticks out because he's voting Captain Ford rather impulsively, with his rationale being that Ford is defending alamoes by stating that he reads as town.

Why this is interesting? Firstly, because he never had any suspicions on alamoes to begin with, and didn't question him in the game at all.

Now, buddying accusations only make sense in two situations: One, you're convinced that the defendee is scum, and thus the defense puts the defender in suspicion - in this case, the second suspect is weaker, but the vote is placed anyway to pressure or to question. Two, you're convinced the defendee is town, and you're already suspicious of the defender, and the defense looks like the defender is trying to garner support.

There isn't really a good case for the first explanation, because he hasn't said anything to alamoes before this post, and despite ranking him as second to Ford in scumminess, not only did he not explain that, he didn't pursue this supposed suspicion in the game at all. Why doesn't he actually give us reasons? Because they'd be bad and not doing so allows him to change things and warp this as he sees fit.

If it is the second case, what he gives us is an extremely weak argument. Firstly, he's not already suspicious of Captain Ford, so he doesn't know at all whether it is in earnest or a ploy for approval. Second, it's pretty clear he doesn't generally think this behaviour is a scumtell in itself, because he didn't react when anyone else expressed a town read on people. I, for example, just now rather emphatically stated that I thought IG is town. Notice that this is essentially the same situation: I'm stating my town read of IG and expressing that to people who vote him, as Ford did to Zrk2. Zombie urist, in turn, says two things: That he has no over suspicions of IG, and that he wouldn't be surprised if he was scum anyway. So why doesn't he say anything about my treatment of IG, and why doesn't any of these explanations fit?

Because he doesn't really suspect Ford at all, and it's just a bullshit reason to jump on someone and get his vote in.


Let's examine the case he later presents:

ZU, for what reason do you vote Captain Ford?
1. Passiveness
2. Defensiveness of alamoes
3. His reason for voting Fresh was most BS (almoes is a close second)
4. He didn't respond to the scroll of mail I sent him.  >:(

I'm going to go through this in reverse order.

A scroll of mail allows one to become Lovers with another person. For town, this really only has utility value if you have a strong town read on someone and the other feels the same about you. The scroll would then allow you to cooperate (to a certain extent). For scum, everyone outside your team is confirmed to be either town or a third party, both of which you'll need to eliminate, so really they're all lumped together. In this case, the scroll has immense utility value, because it allows you to do two things: Gain the trust of the other party to see if you can get him into your voting block, and if you're good enough, you can also rolefish and alignment fish.

Ask yourself: why would you want to use the Scroll of Mail in early RVS as town, as ZU did? You wouldn't, because in RVS you really don't have any idea if the receiver is town or scum and you're just wasting a Scroll, and using it to have a private channel to determine the other's alignment is of limited value at best: A sufficiently wary townie would avoid accepting a chat from a stranger precisely because the townie can get influenced, and as the chat likely won't be posted in much, it's a lot more productive to question a subject in-thread as it ups your chances of getting a reply and lets other townies see it.

ZU's use of the scroll doesn't align with town motives or strategies. The explanation that remains, then, is that he as scum tried to curry Ford's favour or try to get a grip on his role without alerting other wary townies - then, when he failed, he used that point as an argument to attack him without really expounding on why it makes Ford scum.

His own rationale is that he sent a gibberish message and didn't expect a reply in return. Then, when he used that as a point, Ford would reply if he was town. Note that no part of this converstion between ZU and Ford is shown, so really the entire thing would just have devolved into a my-word-against-your-word argument anyway, and ZU would be able to keep his senseless point regardless of what Ford did.

So what's the logic behind that explanation - that a townie would be sufficiently concerned about his appearance to pull a point out of the air when threatened? I don't think so.


Point 3 refers to this:
Spoiler: Quote from Ford (click to show/hide)
This is claimed to be a BS point. Frankly, I dont think so at all. Besides avoiding a rather standard question being rather suspicious in and of itself, I find the confused sentence structure Freshman displays to be pretty revealing.

Note that he says "you're asking me to get that specific item" and "worry me". The question asked what item scum would have. The change in subject implies that he thinks of himself as scum. And if he were a townie, why would he be worried if he himself had the item? It's not like there is any imminent danger of having it stolen when it occurs.

Freshman slipped here. He's scum.


Point 2 I've already discussed - it doesn't make sense.

Point 1 cites passiveness. Why doesn't this apply? Because "being passive" essentially means either doing nothing or very little, or being unaggressive and not pursuing cases. Now, I agree that this is true for Ford's first two posts, which may not have existed at all for all the good it did, but look at his posting history up until then - he's been questioning freshman, he declared alamoes town and disagreed on the zrk2 lynch, and pressured IG. For having only survived D1 he's sure got a lot of posts - more than anyone else's D1 save for Vector and more even than some people's entire posting history. Passive? Hardly.


So that's his "case". He stated D2 to The Soldier that he was pursuing a real suspicion, so it's not just a vote with asspulled reasons for pressure - it's a vote with asspulled reasons because he can't come up with any good ones. Then, when nobody paid any attention to it he decides to switch to NQT. His primary reason? First explained as being because of NQT's post-lynch hypothetical question (without rationale). Note that he then very subtly changes his primary reason to being "he didn't vote for me". Here are two quotes to show that:

ZU seems to me the most scummiest: his curtness is a mask for evasiveness, and his predecessor Fresh was dropping scum tells like they were going out of fashion. But since we've been granted an extension, we've got a little more time to form our reads.
ZU, Zrk2, if we lynch you and you flip town who do you think we should be suspicious of next?
Then why aren't you voting for me? NQT for the second part.
You didn't say that at all. You said "ZU seems to me the most scummiest" Since your English is pretty good, you should know about superlatives and stuff. In no way do I see the implication that you were comparing me and Zrk. Also, good job tunneling IG. To me, not wanting to vote anyone else seems like you're afraid of being part of a mislynch.

This is taken out of context, of course, but the point is that he stops doing anything with the point he voted NQT on, and doesn't even explain why it's scummy. Vector did a good job of blowing a hole in the argument he switched to - keeping a vote on someone who refuses to answer your questions is pretty legitimate.

His other suspicions are also pretty weak. Let's look at Vector: He started that by arguing with her once she voted for him. His primary argument seems to be that meta is bad, but little else - it's actually pretty funny how his later argument reg. NQT is based on meta, not citing any games, while simultaneously discounting Vector's own meta argument. Even so, there aren't really any damning scumtells that he offers up. The Soldier? Presumably because his understanding of the NQT argument is mistaken. Doesn't seem strong.

He then votes for me (well, really Deathsword) for reasons that don't hold up as I've mentioned in an earlier post.

So, in conclusion:
  • He jumped on Ford without really having seen any tells. Later, he gives some arguments that really don't make sense if you think about it.
  • His behaviour and logic is makes much more sense for a scum aligned player.
  • His case on NQT is similarly weak. It's primarily based on one weak point, and his meta argument is not only weak, his own point against Vector discredits himself.
  • Freshman slipped scum. This is very clear.
  • He pulls a lurker lynch on LYLO before voting me/Death for similarly weak reasons.
  • Note how he doesn't really "go for" someone by trying to question them. He votes with his short reasons, as soon as he sees a tell, and leaves it at that - he defends them if need be, but he doesn't try to incriminate his suspect further or fish for alignment. It's telling of someone who just wants a lynch instead of a scum lynch.
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lordnincompoop

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Re: Roguelike Mafia 6 - Can't Catch a Break [Day 3]
« Reply #479 on: April 21, 2013, 02:38:29 pm »

I was going to make something similar for Hapah today, but this took far too long. I'm pretty confident about the above, though.
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