It's all pretty weak, since it's just hypotheticals and conjecture regarding the nightkill. Frankly, I'm not particularly convinced by either side at this point.
I'll humour your theory, Toony. At this point, so close to the prize, I can't conceive of any reason why a scum member would want to avoid killing a Townie. It really doesn't matter who the target is or what else happens, unless the kill is redirected to the mafioso or harms him in some other way. It's always going to be a powerful advantage for scum.
The only way I can think of that doesn't involve a stupid mafioso or a delayed mafioso is this: That the mafioso had both the Scroll of Delaying and the kill free to use, and decided that instead of killing someone and risking having to survive in LYLO, to use the Delay on a Townie instead of the kill, and then frame that townie as being scum using this and the lack of an NK. The mafioso could then lead an easy mislynch in the eventual MYLO, dismissing the no-lynch by using the doublekill argument, and be safely out of harm's reach, thus sealing the game. That's very similar to what's happening here, except we don't know if Hapah is pursuing in earnest or executing such a plan. For a clever player, this isn't out of the realm of possibility at all, esp. considering the Delay scroll is a common item (I think).
That makes Toony and Hapah the likely scum players, I suppose. Right now, it's a toss-up.
Tangentially, I'd be pretty impressed in Hapah if he wins as scum in this game. That would be interesting.