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[MetalSlimeHunt]

China's current motivation is to make NK subordinate again by strangling their progress in nuclear arms. A NK with a matured nuclear program has no need of Chinese influence or protection, and while still more desirable than a pro-American unified Korea will still be free to leave the Chinese sphere.

[ChairmanPoo]

NK is still dependent on China for exports though. Regardless of nuclear capabilities

[Teneb]

NK is still dependent on China for exports though. Regardless of nuclear capabilities

Pretty much. China is the only one willing to buy anything coming out of NK.

[MetalSlimeHunt]

Not true. China is North Korea's dominant trade partner, but there exist other trade relationships which could be expanded (and would be expanded once the nuclear program is completed, which is part of the motivation for NK).

[ChairmanPoo]

Not true. China is North Korea's dominant trade partner, but there exist other trade relationships which could be expanded (and would be expanded once the nuclear program is completed, which is part of the motivation for NK).

But look at the numbers. China is larger than the others combined. And China will grow larger.

[MetalSlimeHunt]

There is no reason to believe China's existing percentage of trade with NK will grow, especially under a nuclear NK. That's the whole point of this. China can cajole and threaten a non-nuclear NK, with abandonment if nothing else (and there is else). A nuclear NK doesn't have to put up with that and can sign over their trade products to other states without concern, and receive trade from those nations as well.

[ChairmanPoo]

There is no reason to believe China's existing percentage of trade with NK will grow, especially under a nuclear NK. That's the whole point of this. China can cajole and threaten a non-nuclear NK, with abandonment if nothing else (and there is else). A nuclear NK doesn't have to put up with that and can sign over their trade products to other states without concern, and receive trade from those nations as well.

*Mao intensifies*

[smjjames]

Not true. China is North Korea's dominant trade partner, but there exist other trade relationships which could be expanded (and would be expanded once the nuclear program is completed, which is part of the motivation for NK).

But look at the numbers. China is larger than the others combined. And China will grow larger.

That's because trade sanctions are preventing most everybody else from doing business with NK.

[scriver]

This Chyna really need a buffer state so badly that they want to continue pumping resources into one of the worst regimes seen in the last 50 years or so?

Spoiler: Chyna is already the buffest, can't get buffer (click to show/hide)

[Antioch]

Not true. China is North Korea's dominant trade partner, but there exist other trade relationships which could be expanded (and would be expanded once the nuclear program is completed, which is part of the motivation for NK).

But look at the numbers. China is larger than the others combined. And China will grow larger.

That's because trade sanctions are preventing most everybody else from doing business with NK.

And why would we lift those as long as North Korea has nuclear weapons?

[MetalSlimeHunt]

It's a likely outcome. If there's a mature nuclear program in North Korea, it won't be undone by sanctions any longer, and so the principle geopolitical actors will be incentivized to cease concerning themselves with it. China and Russia will back off immediately, Europe and India not long thereafter. At that point, continued sanctions from the US won't be strong enough unless we use the Seventh Fleet as a blockade, which wouldn't go over well.

North Korea will then be free and clear to trade with other nations, and due to their position as an isolated economy may offer opportunities that other nations find enticing. Cheap coal, NK "laborers" (Russia already makes use of this), etc. China will of course be furious, but it's kind of too late at that point.

Unless China is so very furious that they allow an American fleet to blockade with their EEZ waters, but I find that beggars belief compared to NK just being able to trade.

[Teneb]

It's a likely outcome. If there's a mature nuclear program in North Korea, it won't be undone by sanctions any longer, and so the principle geopolitical actors will be incentivized to cease concerning themselves with it. China and Russia will back off immediately, Europe and India not long thereafter. At that point, continued sanctions from the US won't be strong enough unless we use the Seventh Fleet as a blockade, which wouldn't go over well.

North Korea will then be free and clear to trade with other nations, and due to their position as an isolated economy may offer opportunities that other nations find enticing. Cheap coal, NK "laborers" (Russia already makes use of this), etc. China will of course be furious, but it's kind of too late at that point.

Unless China is so very furious that they allow an American fleet to blockade with their EEZ waters, but I find that beggars belief compared to NK just being able to trade.

There's also the scenario where China is pissed off enough they have Kim and his internal backers eliminated. Whether they just put a figurehead in charge (more likely) or actually annex is something else.

[MetalSlimeHunt]

I don't know why everybody seems to think that China has Mystical CIA Spies levels of ability to define the North Korean government. They have sympathizers in the political structure, that's about it. They definitely cannot and would not engage in mass assassination or other forms of internal regime change, particularly now that North Korea has nuclear arms.

You don't need a missile to nuke a Chinese city from North Korea. You need a moving van.

And China would never attempt to annex North Korea, that borders on comedy. All of the places that China has annexed over the last century were ones that have been in and out of the control of Chinese governments for a thousand years, which does not include Korea (much).

[smjjames]

Opening up it's borders to free trade could actually be what destabilizes NK, because with it will come a freer flow of information, whether the NK wants it or not.

Not sure at what point you'd call a nuclear program mature, but it's already clear that sanctions aren't stopping it no matter what. At this point, the measures that would make it stop could also lead to it's collapse.

edit: Why would China want to annex NK? They'd just end up with US troops on (at first anyway) and near the border inside a country that's friendly to the US. Which is exactly the kind of situation they'd rather avoid.

And to add to MSH, the only period that Korea got invaded by China was when China was under control by the Mongols. Other than that brief period, Korea has has a vassal/tributary state relationship with China for centuries.

[MetalSlimeHunt]

North Korea is definitely already facing a freer flow of information in the form of the "informal internet" formed by black market trading of DVDs, USB sticks, and computers. This has been going on for several years now and is vitally important in tracking the changes to the population's view of things.