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[Felius]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-21709917#sa-ns_mchannel=rss&ns_source=PublicRSS20-sa

And the saber rattling go even further.

Or alternatively they went full stupid, bought their own propaganda, and want to cease to exist.

Last option is that their leader is actually a genius who wants to turn N.Korea into a democracy and plans to do this by declaring a war against S.Korea and the US, and then losing it.

[Lightningfalcon]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-21709917#sa-ns_mchannel=rss&ns_source=PublicRSS20-sa

And the saber rattling go even further.

Or alternatively they went full stupid, bought their own propaganda, and want to cease to exist.

Last option is that their leader is actually a genius who wants to turn N.Korea into a democracy and plans to do this by declaring a war against S.Korea and the US, and then losing it.

Then we must hurry! The U.S shall answer the cry for democracy once again!

[mainiac]

Yeah, we'll win. I'll kick ass and take names. Be a *lot* of dead Americans and South Koreans when the dust settles, though.

I just dont see that.  We aren't talking west Germany with NATO being ready to fight a slugging match at a moments notice.  While we probably could go invading on day 1 that just isn't in the cards.  Day 1 would just be bombing the shit out of their long range artillery and rockets, as would day 2 and day 3.  Maybe we'd invade them after a while but why bother?  Their army would surrender in a month from hunger if we cut off aid.  I don't know how well the NK leadership understands this but US generals aren't stupid enough to ignore that.  And even if they were that stupid, it takes time to get the american people mobilized for a stupid war and the NK regime will probably collapse before we're ready.

The disturbing possibility is that once the long range artillery bites the dust the north Koreans would try a full scale invasion of the south.  The resulting slaughter would be an immense human tragedy but I'm not imagining a lot of the dead being South Korean or American.

Well yeah, but the Iraqi army was very poorly managed, was a fraction of the size, and had some huge logistical and morale issues... While that might wind up being the case with North Korea, there's no guarantee of it.

The Iraqi army was vastly ahead of the North Korean army in technology and while they had morale issues those were nothing compared to the North Koreans.  If Iraq had faced off against North Korea the Koreans would have gotten curbstomped.  That's the disparity we're talking here, we're two degrees of curbstomping on the North Koreans.

[ibot66]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-21709917#sa-ns_mchannel=rss&ns_source=PublicRSS20-sa

And the saber rattling go even further.

Or alternatively they went full stupid, bought their own propaganda, and want to cease to exist.

Last option is that their leader is actually a genius who wants to turn N.Korea into a democracy and plans to do this by declaring a war against S.Korea and the US, and then losing it.

This is an entirely reasonable plan for best Korea.
Also, PTW. This might go south very very quickly.

[freeformschooler]

I just hope this is extreme saber rattling and doesn't end poorly for SK.

[Lightningfalcon]

The Iraqi army was also considered to be among one of the top armies in size, and one of the major concerns was that it would turn into a war of attrition.  However, the attack on Iraq was planned and prepared for for months, while with Korea we would be on the defense, and would have to mobilize the troops first. 

[misko27]

Seriously, do not underestimate them. They are not playing with Y'all. All the ridiculous things we've come to love about it does not mean they aren't competent. NEVER underestimate the enemy when lives are at stake.

[Osmosis Jones]

Update: It's official, North Korea has ended the nonaggression pact and cut the North-South Hotline.

The N/S hotline isn't a big deal;

The hotline was installed in 1971 and the North has severed it on five occasions in the past -- most recently in 2010.

But voiding an armistice that has stood for 60 years... :/

Man, the year I'll be spending in Japan, starting in May, is looking like it will be interesting.

[Pnx]

The Iraqi army was vastly ahead of the North Korean army in technology and while they had morale issues those were nothing compared to the North Koreans.  If Iraq had faced off against North Korea the Koreans would have gotten curbstomped.  That's the disparity we're talking here, we're two degrees of curbstomping on the North Koreans.

They had hand me down tanks, scud missiles, and RPG's which they got from the Russians, non of which worked very well at all. NK has all of these things and more, and might even be ahead of Iraq in military technology given that they've had some limited ability to purchase modern day aircraft and such.

[Max White]

Seriously, if they fired a rocket they are fucked.

Food Aid. North Korea has suffered from chronic, massive food shortages since the mid-1990s.
Food aid—largely from China, South Korea, and the United States—has been essential in filling
the gap. In 2011, in response to continued food shortages, Pyongyang reportedly asked the United
States, South Korea, and other countries to provide large-scale food aid. The United Nations has
issued an appeal for assistance. In 2008 and 2009, the United States shipped about a third of a
planned 500,000 MT food aid pledge before disagreements with the North Korean government
led to the program’s cessation.

Sorce

They are threatening to bit the hand that literally feeds them. Cutting supply lines is easy when you are the supply lines.
Neither SK or china are going to fly with that shit.

[Zrk2]

Well yeah, but the Iraqi army was very poorly managed, was a fraction of the size, and had some huge logistical and morale issues... While that might wind up being the case with North Korea, there's no guarantee of it.

I honestly don't think anybody knows how the war would really turn out before hand, assuming it does really turn into a full fledged war.

NK has everything you mentioned in spades, and I think everyone knows the end result. NK will lose, the only question is how much will it hurt SK first.

[Felius]

Man, the year I'll be spending in Japan, starting in May, is looking like it will be interesting.

Yeah, interesting, just like the Chinese curse.

[Pnx]

Well yeah, but the Iraqi army was very poorly managed, was a fraction of the size, and had some huge logistical and morale issues... While that might wind up being the case with North Korea, there's no guarantee of it.

I honestly don't think anybody knows how the war would really turn out before hand, assuming it does really turn into a full fledged war.

NK has everything you mentioned in spades, and I think everyone knows the end result. NK will lose, the only question is how much will it hurt SK first.

I never said NK would win, the only way they could win is if China decided that the cost of not joining with NK wasn't worth it they might jump in like they did the first time, this would seriously piss of their biggest trade partner, but like I said, they might decide it's better than the alternatives. I'm not sure it's likely, but I wouldn't put it past them, they are supposed to be official allies after all.

I'm confident that the US could beat NK, but I'm not so confident it's going to be that easy.

[alway]

China's actually getting extremely fed up with NK. To the point where the is open suggestion of dropping any sort of alliance with NK. In particular, they warned NK not to do their latest nuclear test, basically telling them there would be consequences if they did. China has a huge vested interest in ensuring regional stability. It's basically putting their entire superpower status at risk. More tension in the region will lead to increased militarization in SK, Japan, and US forces in the region. If it results in Japanese remilitarization, China goes from biggest power broker in the region to merely competing in a regional rivalry. Likewise, increased US troop presence further undermines their status, as well as making them nervous. And if it ends up being a nuclear conflict, you've then got radiation drifting all over northern China. And on top of it all, China is currently trying to undergo its once-a-decade leadership change; these events are throwing unpredictability and chaos into what they had hoped would be a smooth transition during a period of normalcy. So yeah, China is pretty annoyed with NK right now, as it's acting in direct opposition to China's best interests.

[Fniff]

I really hope this doesn't escalate. Even if they fall at the first hurdle with logistics and supplies, they'd do some damage before then, at least in civilians and military causalties.