NQT:How does this relate to asking about [what information will be gained by NQT's lynch], though? Does knowing how or checking on whether town will benefit from your lynch make it less likely or more productive or something?
Well, I'd hoped that it might make it less likely if they had to actually stop and think about what would be gained from my mislynch. It's hopefully no longer a pressing issue now.
Who
would we have learned a lot from lynching, then? Or was this a simple, selfish attempt at defense by lack of gain?
These are fair questions, and what I would call a lesson, you might call an anecdote. But I've had a think about it and I think I've discovered a general principle of mafia: often times a person will give off scum-tells and will be suspicious for lots of different people over a long time, but scrape by because not enough people think that they're suspicious at the same time.
This is an interesting premise, then.
But again, in order to be valid there has to be some mechanism by which scum will do this
more often than town will, or more often than scum will catch everyone's attentions all at once and just die, right? Otherwise it's still basically throwing in behind a bandwagon, just a more technical bandwagon than usual.
In contrast to Remuthra/FD, I've only been voted four times (including once by Remuthra/FD), less than Borno and Nerjin/SD. I should point out that this isn't the only way of scumhunting, and you're absolutely right that more competent scum will avoid that level of attention. And who is more competent than an IC?
I like this pressure. I like your gusto in defending yourself in general, actually, even if I disagree with the specifics.
But again, here it looks like you're trying to weasel out on a technicality. You have less votes than other people, so you're safe. I'm competent enough to avoid votes so I might be scum. It reeks of that attempt to impugn others and hold yourself above suspicion based on technical assumptions rather than genuine scumhunting.
Hah! Maybe you haven't seen my previous games but a lot of people around here recoil at the idea of looking at voting patterns.
Looking at voting patterns can be quite informative. It's not a substitute for scumhunting, though, and I think in this case you're reading too much into it.
I was offering supporting reasons, as I know what counts as a burden of proof for myself may not count as such for other. As it happens, I was absolutely correct.
Ah, but we don't know that, do we? If I'd said that Remuthra's name started with an R, and R was pretty close to S, and S stood for scum, I would have been "absolutely correct" also.
For that matter, we still don't know how well your theory's going to hold up for the other scum, to say nothing of how correct those supporting reasons are/will be. If your theory was
completely correct we'd just be lynching whoever's had the second most votes and be done with it, wouldn't we?
Crucially though, and I've made this additional connection above, Remuthra dropped a lot of tells and was voted for by lots of people just not at the same time. He would have slipped by if I hadn't have looked at the voting record and made the connection. He wasn't killed by luck but by analysis. I don't think we'll get the next scum in the same way, because the remaining scum is most likely you or Shakerag and you're both more experienced players.
But again, this requires that your reasoning be entirely correct, which you don't know, and your analysis only worked because of that luck. If FD had been in his slot from the get-go, your analysis would have failed miserably and we'd have lynched borno or something. If the scum was me and Shakerag or The Soldier and Ford, it never would have worked and your logic would essentially have lynched weak targets that weren't taken out immediately.
That's the part I don't trust about your method, and I think that's the part you're not getting. It works fine when the scummiest player is scummy scum who hasn't already been
traditionally bandwagoned, but fails miserably or is redundant any other time.
Ha! While it's nice that you think I might be some kind of Machiavellian mastermind, shall we first consider the more likely before moving on to the more fantastic? Flying Dice might well have continued to escape the chopping block if I hadn't have cast my vote, he was a very competent player. I should think my innocence would be obvious by now (like that of Onyx and Spaghetti), but if I'm wrong about you or Shakerag, then everyone may rightly consider me a worthy target of suspicion once more. And I always look at the voting patterns, that how I play this game. So for me, it wasn't so strange a reason.
Well, Flying Dice and Imiknorris are fairly dangerous also.
But again, your innocence isn't obvious, and neither is Onyx's or Spaghetti's (though personally, I think Spaghetti's vote
looks organic and non-bussy enough to be neither an accident nor a ploy). If it was, I don't see how killing two people of your choice would revoke it, either. Is it possible you're scum or isn't it? What is it about me and Shakerag that means you can't be scum while we're alive but if we both get lynched, yeah, it could totally be you?
Rest assured that is happening. First, I thought of the best way to proceed, then as I knew I'd be looking back, I thought to draft a list of suspects, then I saw that the suspects were just you and Shakerag and then I looked back and found evidence that made you look suspicious. That was the train of events.
That's fine, it's just that your current case seems lazy and weak.
Onyx, Spaghetti, what do you think of my case against IronyOwl? Or should we be more suspicious of Shakerag?
Trying to set up a false dichotomy is another scumtell, you know.
[On an IC game-advice level, how do you avoid overstating the fact that you are town when playing town? Is there an acceptable level of assuming your own innocence in public, or must you always pretend that you might be guilty, for the benefit of others?]
It's a matter of perspective. Saying out loud that you know you're town and can therefore draw the following conclusions isn't very useful to anyone but you, so there's usually not that much reason to
say it to anyone but you. There can be places for it, but again, it's usually not productive or conducive to anything because it can't be taken as true by anyone.
Well I keep saying that you and Spaghetti are town as well. I think it's pretty obvious that given the state of the game as it was, bussing would have been completely ridiculous.
How so? You're stating right now just how awesome a position it would be for scum, and I've explained several times how WIFOM of this nature works, so what is it? What would have made this such a bad or impractical idea for scum that they'd never do it, even if it's obvious that anyone who did it would get a free pass to the end of the game?
I'm not trying to push anyone on my purported towndom, the record speaks for itself and everyone should feel free to make their own mind up about it. Clearly more people need to have their say and more retrospection needs to occur before we make our final decisions for the day. Now the doc is dead, we can only afford two mislynches, so we should obviously choose carefully.
The record doesn't speak for itself, it sits there waiting for people to come along and interpret it.
More importantly, why suddenly such a hands-off approach here? First it's obvious, then... well, everyone can make up their own minds, you certainly don't need to tell them how to think. If someone didn't get it or disagreed, would you just let the matter sit?
Shakerag:Which is why you killed him, right?
Well no, he wouldn't have been dangerous to me. If I had killed him it'd probably be because he would've looked very good after having been attacking by confirmed scum all day.
Onyx:IronyOwl Besides NQT, who are you currently suspicious of?
Pretty much everyone, I'm afraid. Spaghetti's vote, as I've mentioned, seemed too early to be a gambit and too late to be an accident, so I'm not seriously suspicious of him, but everyone else is at least a mildly legitimate target. I'll hopefully get around to that reread and have a more refined, useful answer sometime soon.
Spaghetti:Alright, nice job town. Now I've had a quick look at Remu/Flying Dice's posts and actions, and I've come up with the following:
Damn, man, you're looking a little scummy too. You flipped the vote to lynch R/FD an hour before the deadline. Whether that's luck, or a scum trying to look town I can't tell. R/FD also only ever placed a pressure vote on your predeccesor, never anything strong minded. Now, this isn't much, put your post after the deadline rings alarm bells. It seems to be someone trying so hard to look town, that they look scum.
This seems kind of odd. Your analysis looked like it was essentially focused on votes, but then your conclusion is based on vote timing and trying to look town.
Onyx, Spaghetti, what do you think of my case against IronyOwl? Or should we be more suspicious of Shakerag?
Again, stop trying to make friends. Just because you voted scum, doesn't mean you're not scum. And same for us.
This does seem to be dodging his question, though. Why is that?
Oh, and IronyOwl, why were you voting for NQT at the time of the lynch?
Flipflopping on borno, looking like he was trying to look very townlike/wriggle out of a lynch, and maybe buddy Ford. Mainly it was that "gee Ford lucky thing I didn't vote you just now or I'd totally have lynched you" part, as I recall.
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Topic: BM XXXVIV: Arcane Mafia - Vengeance (SCUM VICTORY) (Read 87173 times)