Print

Please login or register.
1 Hour 1 Day 1 Week 1 Month Forever
Login with username, password and session length

A

A

A

A

A

A

A

A

[smjjames]

Iran's main PR problem with nuclear stuff is one of its own making, cause of their Hezbollah and their statements of Israel's destruction. 
I'd think turning their holy land into a nuclear wasteland is the last thing the religious fundamentalists would want...

Yeah, especially when theres a number (well, at least one that I know of in Jerusalem) of major Muslim holy sites there as well, so they risk not only angering Christians and Jews, but Muslims as well if they did do that.

[mainiac]

Sometimes I wonder what people think "projecting power" actually means in the world we currently live in.

Ability to tell other states what they should do with an implied threat of destruction if they don't comply?

That is a rather disturbing definition to adopt.

[Sergarr]

Sometimes I wonder what people think "projecting power" actually means in the world we currently live in.

Ability to tell other states what they should do with an implied threat of destruction if they don't comply?

That is a rather disturbing definition to adopt.

Well duh, it's projection of power. Power is all about being able to do stuff as freely as possible, and power projection - about being able to make others to do stuff as freely as possible to you (which means "you don't care if they want to do this or not"). And you can only do that with a threat of destruction in case you don't comply.

To me the most iconic example of power projection's both sides is Opium war.

[Grim Portent]

Provided you possess a sufficient degree of nonviolent power you can threaten nations with things other than destruction. Economic sanctions can be a very big threat to a nation that isn't self sufficient, religious bodies can be influential in some nations since religious causes can stir up a lot of unrest.

For example, I'm quite certain that the best way to bring the US to it's knees these days would be to call in it's debts. Though that would cause a domino effect and collapse the economy of most nations due to all the back and forth lending between banks and governments. It's a nation that's almost impossible to threaten with force of arms, but they're still vulnerable in other ways.

[ChairmanPoo]

It's arguable to what extent those are "nonviolent". Starving someone out can be as bad or worse as giving him a beating.

[wobbly]

Also pretty sure if you tried to actually do that to the US the end result would be violent. A strong military power with a collapsing economy can be a messy situation.

[SirQuiamus]

For example, I'm quite certain that the best way to bring the US to it's knees these days would be to call in it's debts. Though that would cause a domino effect and collapse the economy of most nations due to all the back and forth lending between banks and governments. It's a nation that's almost impossible to threaten with force of arms, but they're still vulnerable in other ways.

You got that right: PRC's reserves of US government bonds are basically economic nukes, but with lots of realizable potential for destruction.

I wonder why Putin isn't employing a similar strategy against America?

[Grim Portent]

For example, I'm quite certain that the best way to bring the US to it's knees these days would be to call in it's debts. Though that would cause a domino effect and collapse the economy of most nations due to all the back and forth lending between banks and governments. It's a nation that's almost impossible to threaten with force of arms, but they're still vulnerable in other ways.

You got that right: PRC's reserves of US government bonds are basically economic nukes, but with lots of realizable potential for destruction.

I wonder why Putin isn't employing a similar strategy against America?

I suspect Russia is in the same boat to some extent, if one country starts global economic meltdown without first making sure it's defended against the fallout it'll get dragged down with everyone else. Not to mention the long term benefits of trading on equal footing are probably more beneficial than those of trading with countries with shattered economies.

[SirQuiamus]

For example, I'm quite certain that the best way to bring the US to it's knees these days would be to call in it's debts. Though that would cause a domino effect and collapse the economy of most nations due to all the back and forth lending between banks and governments. It's a nation that's almost impossible to threaten with force of arms, but they're still vulnerable in other ways.

You got that right: PRC's reserves of US government bonds are basically economic nukes, but with lots of realizable potential for destruction.

I wonder why Putin isn't employing a similar strategy against America?

I suspect Russia is in the same boat to some extent, if one country starts global economic meltdown without first making sure it's defended against the fallout it'll get dragged down with everyone else. Not to mention the long term benefits of trading on equal footing are probably more beneficial than those of trading with countries with shattered economies.

That's what you'd normally think, but Putin is doing his level best to avoid trading on an equal footing, in more than one sense. It's like he's carrying out the good old Soviet economic strategy. If the train doesn't run: draw the curtains, shoot the conductor, and say "choo choo."   

[Vilanat]

Iran's main PR problem with nuclear stuff is one of its own making, cause of their Hezbollah and their statements of Israel's destruction. 
I'd think turning their holy land into a nuclear wasteland is the last thing the religious fundamentalists would want...

Except the lands of israel is mentioned very little in their holy books (Jerusalem not even once). let's say that if Iran wanted to demolish israel they would have better backing in the quran than the opposition who might maintain its a holy muslim land and should be spared.

And religious fundamentalists have proven times and times again they have no problem destroying holy sites even if they are from their own religion. no need to open history books since we got a live presentation all over the middle east

Also, Iran "PR" problems is not confined to hezbollah and israel. a recent example can be this or this. Iran was and still is a fundamental imperialistic entity, except its too weak to actually do it openly and directly.

Also, Iran hasn't overtly attacked another country in more than two centuries. In addition, even with the current government in Iran, Shiites generally aren't as extreme as Sunnis. I'm far more worried about Pakistan's nukes than Iran's nukes that they will totally have in like 2 years guys for the last 30 years.

And Russia hasn't overly attacked the Ukrain, so? its eastern side still lies in ruins. i bet its very comforting for all the dead innocent ukrainians that its totally-not-russians who killed them.

About the differences between sunnis and shiites: i am not sure that if you'd compare the percentage of extremists among sunnis and the percentage of extremists among shiites the sunnis would turn more extreme. sunnis are not linked and backed by a certain single country and so could deploy different tactics while the shiites are generally associated with Iran (in recent times) and thus has to operate more covertly. its not that shiites extremists don't behead, burn alive or torture, they just don't do so on twitter and youtube.

If you take the ideological differences, especially in how they treat their holy leaders, then shiites are to be considered far more extreme since they are demanded to blindly accept anything their imams tells them while sunnis do not. the shiites religious leaders has absolute power and we all know the saying "Power corrupt, absolute power corrupts absolutely".

[Descan]

I don't think calling in the U.S. debt would be as deadly as you think. Only a third of their debt is foreign owned, and a lot of it is owned by allies. The largest two countries to own it are China and Japan, at around 7% each. Do you really think Japan would go along with such a plan, when in the worst case scenario (China goin' crazy and deciding it wants to be king of the scrap heap) they'd be one of the first targets, considering their distance to China and the animosity between them? Only thing protecting them in that case is a friendly and strong US.

Only 10% (including that Chinese 7%) is owned by "less than friendly" countries. Do you think 10~% of American debt being called in would be so drastic as to destroy the US? That is about 1.6 trillion dollars, and the deficit at one time was at least 1.4 trillion. It wouldn't be shrugged off, but it'd be no worse than what they've done to themselves recently, and they've survived.

[mainiac]

One doesn't "call in national debt" like a loanshark or a bar tab.  It's a contract for repayment at a contractually defined time and no sooner.  And it's a contract for repayment in a commodity that generally a country possesses in unlimited quantity.  It's not like in the 1920s when Germany was obliged to repay a set quantity of gold, coal and other commodities.  Europe is unusual in that it's debts are defined in Euros which even France and Germany dont possess in unlimited quantities but the European Central Bank would hardly be amenable to an outside country bullying the European economy.

The collapse in the Russian currency happened because Russia was and remains dependent on outside credit and financing.  Export oriented natural resource industries needed to import foreign imports and conduct transactions at exchange rates for foreign currencies not rubles.  The real value of those industries is defined in terms of their access to those markets so removing their access changes the value.  However there is no value of ownership of debt issued by the Russian government itself that would let a country blackmail Russia in the same way.  Russia always possesses the ability to create more rubles no matter what state the economy is in.  Even in a catastrophic nuclear war situation the Russian government would be perfect capable even if not particularly inclined to create unlimited rubles and pay every one of it's nominal debts.  Creditors of course know that they lack the ability to force a national government to repay on the terms they want which is why there is a demand for a very large amount of American debt (since the US is willing to repay a very high amount at a high nominal value) while Russia can only borrow a relatively small amount and a place like North Korea can borrow none at all without resorting to things that make it not really borrowing.

[Mictlantecuhtli]

Only 10% (including that Chinese 7%) is owned by "less than friendly" countries. Do you think 10~% of American debt being called in would be so drastic as to destroy the US? That is about 1.6 trillion dollars, and the deficit at one time was at least 1.4 trillion. It wouldn't be shrugged off, but it'd be no worse than what they've done to themselves recently, and they've survived.

Not to mention if any world economic crises was to come about and wasn't able to be squarely blamed on ourselves like another recent near-global collapse, we'd find a scapegoat to take the blame and the world would likely join in to save face. Scapegoats aren't very well treated by our foreign affairs machinations.

[mainiac]

Provided you possess a sufficient degree of nonviolent power you can threaten nations with things other than destruction. Economic sanctions can be a very big threat to a nation that isn't self sufficient, religious bodies can be influential in some nations since religious causes can stir up a lot of unrest.

Christ on a cracker, do people not realize that beneficial as well as destructive relationships exist?  There's a reason that the Soviet Union had global power projection while Russian power barely extends into it's borders.  The Soviet Union actually offered people something positive in terms of a cultural and economic movement.  Sure it eventually went bust but it was something people could get behind and the Soviets backed up their movement with economic resources.

China today has it's military reach stop a few kilometers past it's borders but the promise of Chinese investment makes head's turn on the other side of the earth...

[Owlbread]

General election tomorrow, polls open at 07:00 and close at 22:00. I sincerely hope all UK-based Baywatchers exercise their franchise.