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[Owlbread]

polls would narrow closer to the election.

Ah the age old tradition.

This election is all about breaking traditions, apparently. The latest poll from Ipsos-MORI show the SNP could potentially take every seat in the country. That's the best poll result the SNP has ever had in its 100 year existence, and the best poll ever for any Scottish political party as far as I can tell. Of course a poll is not a prediction, it's a snapshot of public opinion from a sample group; people should treat polls as what could be possible if sufficient hard work is put in if they want to win anything close to that. I still can't believe the SNP would win Berwickshire in the Borders or the Northern Isles though - that's just... I mean, it's impossible. It just can't happen. There's no way.

The difficulty with the poll is that these so-called "predictions" are based on uniform swings - this works both against and in favour of the SNP as the swing is much, much greater towards them in Labour strongholds that voted Yes in significant numbers. The swing outside in places in middle-Scotland where the SNP tend to do well against Labour (but never really win at a UK level) but still voted strongly No e.g. Clackmannanshire, Stirling, Aberdeen, Falkirk, Fife, parts of Edinburgh or maybe East Lothian the swing isn't quite as good as in the Glasgow area (apart from Kirkcaldy where the SNP could overturn Gordon Brown's 20,000 vote majority or something) but in general it's also in their favour by a significant amount. Then you get lost-cause rural/remote seats e.g. Berwickshire, or Dumfriesshire which is the last Tory stronghold, or the Northern Isles which is so Lib Dem it's just insane. The swing in those areas seems to be roughly as large as that in "Middle Scotland", which according to Ashcroft constituency polls (i.e. polls of the constituency itself) could put them within touching distance of victory.

I know that in Berwickshire last I checked the latest Ashcroft poll went something like 28% Lib Dem, 29% SNP and 30% Conservative... that's how much of a knife edge that constituency is. A real nail biter, as people are calling it. It could go Tory, it could go SNP... who knows. I still can't believe the SNP could take it. The Northern Isles is the big one though, taking those would be beyond anyone's wildest dreams.

Of course, I should add that when a party like the SNP could take 100% of the seats with only 54% of the vote, it's very obvious our voting system is completely broken.

[Sergarr]

Heh, and I remember when Cameron essentially said "lol we won so you will only get your chance in a few decades, losers".

And look at how it turned out.

[Owlbread]

Heh, and I remember when Cameron essentially said "lol we won so you will only get your chance in a few decades, losers".

And look at how it turned out.

Ed Miliband, the leader of the UK labour party (and likely successor to Cameron), said yesterday that he would block any attempt to get a second referendum through the House of Commons because it was a "once in a generation event". That's probably the most incredibly stupid thing he's ever said/committed to in his life. If he tries it he will effectively condemn the Union to death; it also seems like there's enough Tories and Labour and Lib Dem MPs that they could push something like that through.

The Catalans had very decent majorities in favour of independence/sovereignty, partly due to the Spanish government's incredibly idiotic stance on blocking any kind of referendum. I know the Catalans are struggling to keep up momentum at the moment for independence, but that seems to be due to the fact that they're led by centre-right, establishment organisations rather than truly radical alternatives, so groups like Podemos are stealing their thunder. In Scotland the SNP are left-of-centre enough that they can capitalise on that European anti-austerity swing which will give them much greater longevity than Artur Mas' party in Catalonia. 

I suppose though Miliband's declaration shows how much Labour have completely given up trying to get through to the people who switched from Labour to SNP after the referendum. Just a few months ago their Scottish leadership were claiming they were going to win over the defectors, now it seems like they're just trying to consolidate the Unionist vote.

If anyone has grown tired of my partisan appraisals of Jim Murphy's performance as leader of Scottish Labour, please refer to this simple article which could be considered the first "autopsy" after the death of Labour Scotland as we know it, 2015.

[Sheb]

To be fair, this kind of stuff should be a once in a generation event (except if a game-changer like a Brexit occurs). You can't just vote every other year until you get the result you want.

[Owlbread]

To be fair, this kind of stuff should be a once in a generation event (except if a game-changer like a Brexit occurs). You can't just vote every other year until you get the result you want.

That's the stance the SNP is taking, but they know if they don't challenge Miliband's assertions then even game-changers like Brexit mean nothing. The SNP's official line is actually "the SNP would only push for a second referendum if there was a mandate for it", which has been qualified with talk of polls in the future potentially showing widespread support for independence or a referendum. If you read between the lines the SNP won't push for another referendum until they're certain they can win it.

[Sergarr]

To be fair, this kind of stuff should be a once in a generation event (except if a game-changer like a Brexit occurs). You can't just vote every other year until you get the result you want.

I'd argue that "SNP sweeping the country" is a game-changer of elephant-like proportions.

It's not like Canada and Quebec, I think. Did Quebec's independence party ever sweep the country after a failed referendum?

[Owlbread]

I'd argue that "SNP sweeping the country" is a game-changer of elephant-like proportions.

It's not like Canada and Quebec, I think. Did Quebec's independence party ever sweep the country after a failed referendum?

This is a game changer of elephant like proportions but it's a bit more complicated than that. It means they will have a lot more power at a UK level in being able to fight for constitutional settlements in the future, which has been sorely needed in the last 3 years. It gives the SNP a lot more experience in dealing with UK reserved issues like defence and foreign affairs (again, something that was needed last year). It also gives them an incredibly large amount of money because incumbent parties get some kind of subsidy from the government to pay for campaign offices and fully paid staff; they will be used to campaign for independence in the future, in addition to the grassroots activists. It will work in the opposite way for the former Unionist MPs - without the benefits of having so many sitting MPs, they will find it harder to campaign. During the referendum they were relying a lot on fully paid staff as the Unionist campaign had practically no grassroots movement backing it up. So yeah, the benefits to the SNP are innumerable.

What Sturgeon has made very clear though is that this election isn't a direct call for independence because a second referendum isn't in the manifesto - she'd only put that forward if she was certain it could be won, and even then it should follow some key events to give it legitimacy e.g. the UK government blocking devolution proposals and showing it's completely unfit to govern Scotland. That is very likely, however, and made more likely by this potential SNP victory.

Here is a potential scenario:

SNP win 50+ seats this year. They push hard for more devolution and demand the promises made before the referendum by the Unionist parties are kept. The Unionists, sensing that Scotland is a lost cause, block the SNP's proposals as much as possible and nothing gets through. This becomes obvious to people in Scotland and support for independence rises.

What happens after this I don't know - it could lead to a manifesto commitment for the 2016 election (maybe less likely, I think something else needs to happen first like the EU referendum or something), or if Miliband's as adamant as he is today that any future referendum should be blocked, maybe we'd end up with one of those "SNP vote = independence mandate" type elections in 2020. That will depend on how the Catalans do when they try that method this year.

[Reelya]

Read your source man, it doesn't say what you think you're saying.

The only thing they could verify was a regular boat mistaken for a sub.

They "remain convinced" that there was really a sub. But that's really hard to judge. Generally people in an official capacity do not like to admit they wasted huge chunks of taxpayers money and ran around like idiots. Reluctance to admit mistakes like that isn't just about hubris, many people could lose their jobs ... so the guys who will look like idiots and possibly sabotage their own careers if they admit there was no sub, say there was definitely a sub. It's not a convincing independent source. Maybe there was a sub, but let's hear it from someone who has not staked their personal reputation on the matter.

One initial sighting (real or false) can cause confirmation bias too, leading to more false sightings. e.g. the belief that the Russians have subs everywhere will lead to more crew members identifying unknown things as subs. This is normal human psychology. Don't they have whales and stuff in that area too? Could always be a whale and someone freaked out because they're on edge due to these rumors of Russian subs. That would be the ultimate embarrassment wouldn't it though? If they depth-charged a "sub" and bits of whale start floating up. It's happened before:

http://www.news.com.au/world/british-navy-mistakes-whales-for-submarines-and-torpedoes-them-killing-three-during-falklands-war/story-fndir2ev-1226710325894

[Sergarr]

i don't think whales usually swim in shallow waters

[Reelya]

But they do often enough for beached whales to be an issue. And something you're not expecting to be there, which could reasonably actually be there, is a ripe candidate for misidentification.

[Helgoland]

He was claiming that the Swedish military had admitted that there had been no sub at all, or at least he worded his statement in a way that suggested such a thing. That, however, is not backed by that source at all.
Sure, it's possible that there was no sub at all, but it's not at all certain.

(Also I just noticed that I mistyped in the post you quoted: It should be "[...] what you think it's saying.")

[Erkki]

Remember that the best tool for finding one is often a passive sensors system. Every vessel and vessel type has a more or less unique audio "signature"(effected by number of props, prop blade numbers, engine type yadda yadda). Gathered data can be compared to a vast library of such signatures to ID the contact or at least rule out vessel types and classes. The Baltic is a very demanding sea for both subs and anti-sub ops: its shallow, there are hundreds of thousands of islands, there are often lots of sound layers(because the temperature and saltiness vary wildly) and especially because there is a huge amount of traffic. Its a bit like the English Channel with more islands but no tide.

I would not wonder if in both of these cases the identity of the violator has already been revealed or ruled down to a small number of vessels or vessel types. Militaries dont often want to reveal what they can or cant do voluntarily so we may not hear further info either incident for years. Thats my thoughts on it...

[Ukrainian Ranger]

Spoiler: Sometimes I miss Russia thread because it would be better for post like this one (click to show/hide)

Russian show business at it's best - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5GRM8ROrDE0  NSFW and may damage your sanity
I warned you

I am sure that if when youtube will block it will be because they hate glorious Stalin. After all frenchkissing almost naked ~10-12 year olds is something depraved West is known for

Heh, actually original video is back from 2013 - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Al50oiw3D4I

Insane...

[Sergarr]

>reads the video description

>sees words like "нового поп-проекта" (new pop-project), "анархического дуэта" (anarchic duet), "анархиста, психолога и поэта Валерия Полиенко" (anarchist, physchologist and a poet? what)

Yeah I don't think any sane Russian is going to defend this shit.

[MarcAFK]

Spoiler (click to show/hide)

Uh, yeah that's pretty weird.