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[Helgoland]

Belarus is a Russian military ally housing Russian aircraft and strategic land connections leading to Moscow. We'll be hit on day 1 if shit hits the fan.

Also, pardon me if I sound flamey, but the popular sentiment stating that the West can easily win a conventional war with Russia is very much present, among both ordinary people and Pentagon strategists, and that is really dangerous.

Actually my money would be on Lukashenko having enough brains to declare Belarus neutral, and then either wait out the whole war or put up some token resistance against Russian occupation. This would not necessarily mean that no Belarusian territory will get nuked, but it will make it less likely.

And why do you think the West would be unable to win a conventional war against Russia?

[smjjames]

You guys just can't stop talking about Russia, don't you?
Seriously, you have internet, which allows you to soothe the tenses your governments force on you by speaking directly to people half over the globe to see they are no less and no more human than you are, and all you do is ensue the conflict? From both sides? Why do you do that?

Well, if some guy in the White House decides that Russia can be easily defeated by conventional means and bombs start falling at my home one summer morning, [abbr=""YOU FUCKERS HAVE BOMBED MY FUCKING HOUSE FUCK YOU NATO FASCIST SCUM" - "It's all your fault, Guardian - if you had aligned yourself with the West, this wouldn't have happened"" - "WELL FUCK YOU YOU SC-" -nuked-]all this Internet connection won't make my situation any better[/abbr].

You're in Belarus anyway, not Russia.

Belarus is a Russian military ally housing Russian aircraft and strategic land connections leading to Moscow. We'll be hit on day 1 if shit hits the fan.

Also, pardon me if I sound flamey, but the popular sentiment stating that the West can easily win a conventional war with Russia is very much present, among both ordinary people and Pentagon strategists, and that is really dangerous.

For one, I don't wish for the 'West' to engage in a conventional war with Russia, though IF we end up in one, we won't be the aggressors or fire first.

[SirQuiamus]

Belarus is a Russian military ally housing Russian aircraft and strategic land connections leading to Moscow. We'll be hit on day 1 if shit hits the fan.

Also, pardon me if I sound flamey, but the popular sentiment stating that the West can easily win a conventional war with Russia is very much present, among both ordinary people and Pentagon strategists, and that is really dangerous.

Actually my money would be on Lukashenko having enough brains to declare Belarus neutral, and then either wait out the whole war or put up some token resistance against Russian occupation. This would not necessarily mean that no Belarusian territory will get nuked, but it will make it less likely.

And why do you think the West would be unable to win a conventional war against Russia?

And Remember Lukashenko's reaction to Crimea and Ukraine? Does anyone think he would be happy to see Belarus annexed by Putin?

[Darvi]

For one, I don't wish for the 'West' to engage in a conventional war with Russia, though IF we end up in one, we won't be the aggressors or fire first.

Depends on how you define "aggressor" anyway. If a war gets declared, it's almost certainly by the US or NATO, but threatening people with nukes it pretty aggro so while it's not the same thing as all-out conflict, it's still equivalent to throwing the gauntlet.

Naturally, both sides will gladly use the definition that makes the other side look like the bad guys. Such is politics.

[Guardian G.I.]

Belarus is a Russian military ally housing Russian aircraft and strategic land connections leading to Moscow. We'll be hit on day 1 if shit hits the fan.

Also, pardon me if I sound flamey, but the popular sentiment stating that the West can easily win a conventional war with Russia is very much present, among both ordinary people and Pentagon strategists, and that is really dangerous.

Actually my money would be on Lukashenko having enough brains to declare Belarus neutral, and then either wait out the whole war or put up some token resistance against Russian occupation. This would not necessarily mean that no Belarusian territory will get nuked, but it will make it less likely.

And why do you think the West would be unable to win a conventional war against Russia?

It can escalate towards a nuclear war, limited or full scale, it doesn't matter.

[Antsan]

For one, I don't wish for the 'West' to engage in a conventional war with Russia, though IF we end up in one, we won't be the aggressors or fire first.

What does it matter who the aggressor is? This is awful!

[wierd]

There are plenty of batshit crazy types in the US that would approve of blanket bombing Russia, regardless of the consequences.

Then again, we seem to be cultivating batshit crazy types here for political reasons-- but this is the European politics thread. Best leave that can of snakes in the Election (its terrifying!) thread.

Still--  If Putin continues his nationalist march all over the former eastern bloc countries, I fully expect that the US will intervene at some point, if for no other reason, NATO will tell us to.

When that happens, Putin will not relent, and shit will hit the fan.

That is why I am very disturbed by the Pro Putin rhetoric I have seen used over in this thread by some posters. Putin's actions may be good for Russia in the short term, but the world is like a fishbowl. Pooping on somebody else has a way of getting back to you.  (Sadly, if only my own country would realize this as well, things would be a lot better...)

[Sergarr]

Belarus is a Russian military ally housing Russian aircraft and strategic land connections leading to Moscow. We'll be hit on day 1 if shit hits the fan.

Also, pardon me if I sound flamey, but the popular sentiment stating that the West can easily win a conventional war with Russia is very much present, among both ordinary people and Pentagon strategists, and that is really dangerous.

Actually my money would be on Lukashenko having enough brains to declare Belarus neutral, and then either wait out the whole war or put up some token resistance against Russian occupation. This would not necessarily mean that no Belarusian territory will get nuked, but it will make it less likely.

And why do you think the West would be unable to win a conventional war against Russia?

While the West (and by West I mean NATO) certainly can win a conventional war against Russia, in theory, there are two complicating factors:
1) The difficulty. Russia is stronger than all opponents that NATO has recently faced, and also has lots of advanced capabilities that counter some of the more advanced tech NATO has. Thus, lots of tactics that worked against Middle Eastern or North African armies are not going to work so well against Russia.
2) Casualties. Most other tactics that would work well against Russia involve taking a lot of casualties (in large-scale ground assaults), which doesn't mesh well with the casualty-averse nature of the Western society. The ones that are left have a problem of taking a lot of time.

So in essence, even without taking nuclear weapons into consideration, beating Russia in a conventional war, while possible, is either going to take a shit-load of time, or will take a lot of casualties to achieve. First one is not really possible because democracy tends to switch governments over large periods of time to a more popular one (which in this case will be the one that makes peace), the second one will lead to mass unrest and - likely - the forcible change of government to the one that makes peace.

There's also the "blitzkrieg" tactic, which can be both fast and without casualties, but it's the one that has the highest chance of triggering a nuclear response, so it's not likely to be actually used.

[Darvi]

*insert land war in asia joke*

Classic blunder, really.

[smjjames]

*insert land war in asia joke*

Yeah, despite Moscow being relatively close to Europe and not in the middle of the country (which just happens to be Siberia), there is TONS of space to run and hide and maneuver, plus theyve got the home territory advantage of knowing the terrain better. Yes, even in this age of sattelites and google maps, theres no replacement for familiarity with the regions terrain that you're fighting in.

[Bohandas]

You guys just can't stop talking about Russia, don't you?
Seriously, you have internet, which allows you to soothe the tenses your governments force on you by speaking directly to people half over the globe to see they are no less and no more human than you are, and all you do is ensue the conflict? From both sides? Why do you do that?

Well, if some guy in the White House decides that Russia can be easily defeated by conventional means and bombs start falling at my home one summer morning, [abbr=""YOU FUCKERS HAVE BOMBED MY FUCKING HOUSE FUCK YOU NATO FASCIST SCUM" - "It's all your fault, Guardian - if you had aligned yourself with the West, this wouldn't have happened"" - "WELL FUCK YOU YOU SC-" -nuked-]all this Internet connection won't make my situation any better[/abbr].

You're in Belarus anyway, not Russia.

Belarus is a Russian military ally housing Russian aircraft and strategic land connections leading to Moscow. We'll be hit on day 1 if shit hits the fan.

Also, pardon me if I sound flamey, but the popular sentiment stating that the West can easily win a conventional war with Russia is very much present, among both ordinary people and Pentagon strategists, and that is really dangerous.

Provided, of course, that they don't try to invade during the winter. Is there still anyone who hasn't learned that lesson yet?

[Sheb]

Of course we did learn that lesson. What do you think global warming is for?

[Comrade P.]

Provided, of course, that they don't try to invade during the winter. Is there still anyone who hasn't learned that lesson yet?

Mongols did the thing. Successfully. Way in the past, but they did.

Of course we did learn that lesson. What do you think global warming is for?

You... bastards!

[Darvi]

Of course we did learn that lesson. What do you think global warming is for?

It all makes sense now

[SirQuiamus]

For one, I don't wish for the 'West' to engage in a conventional war with Russia, though IF we end up in one, we won't be the aggressors or fire first.

What does it matter who the aggressor is? This is awful!

This.
...talk about war is awful.

@Everyone: Time to do a reality-check, perhaps?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Amygdala_hijack