The pollster Lord Ashcroft decided to poll 8,000 people in marginal seats ahead of the general election. In Scotland he polled a few constituencies of interest -
The results are absolutely astonishing. According to the poll the SNP would take Kirkcaldy - Gordon Brown's seat. If that rubber-jawed, lying, bloated grandee windbag wasn't standing down in May he'd lose the seat. Same with Menzies Campbell - swine that he is, and Alistair Darling too. Dumfriesshire, the last Tory stronghold, has the SNP at the Tories neck and neck at 34%/34%.
Of the marginals polled individually, the only Labour seat that would be held in Scotland would be East Renfrewshire - by 1%. That's good news for Labour, considering the constituency belongs to Scottish Labour leader Jim Murphy. If he loses his seat he'll lose his job faster than Wendy Alexander, which is saying something.
If these enormous swings (20% swing in some cases e.g. Dumfries and Galloway, which voted No) were replicated across the country the SNP would end up taking something like 56/59 Scottish Westminster seats, leaving the Northern Isles under Lib Dem control, East Renfrewshire with Labour and
possibly Dumfriesshire with the Tory Mundell. I can't explain how insane this is - this is mind-bendingly crazy. I can't wrap my head around it. It's so mind bendingly crazy I'm going to end up shaving my beard into a handlebar moustache and joining Cobra Commander in his dastardly schemes.
Analysis from the Tory Lord himself.Scottish Conservative writer Alex Massie has similar views,
speaking of it in apocalyptic terms.