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[miljan]

Does someone know how serious is the last claim that Russia invaded ukraine?

Not that serious (it was several times said that russia invaded ukraine in the past also, so its nothing new).  If they did anything it would be sending weapons to rebels, but you will not see a full time invasion of russian military as there is no need for it..

[Helgoland]

Does someone know how serious is the last claim that Russia invaded ukraine?

Rather serious - even UN officials now have called Russia out on that. And there are massive troop movements in eastern Ukraine, and the fighting is becoming stronger and stronger... I believe we're entering round two, and Russia is going for victory by technical knockout.

[Ukrainian Ranger]

Full scale invasion ala WW2 is unlikely indeed, I hardly imagine 100 000+ personnel operation.  But 2-3 divisions worth of Russians are there for months.

Air strikes, ballistic missiles and mining Ukrainian territorial waters is a very likely next step of Putin

[Sergarr]

Nah, these things are way too noticeable.

On the place of Putin I'd basically just started to enforce the point that Ukraine is refusing to uphold the peace treaties, then void them and start the conventional offensive in place Ukrainians defence is the weakest. Somewhere between Mariupol and Donetsk airport there should be a point like that.

Remember, in the August, the Ukrainian forces of the first line (those who fought Russian expeditionary troops) have lost over 50% of their armor in a week and suffered catastrophic losses. Ukraine has so little in the ways of tanks now that they're canceling the export contracts. We don't really need anything more than we already used to win...

[Helgoland]

What would you consider winning, Sergarr? This whole operation looks like it is very much vulnerable to mission creep.

[Sergarr]

What would you consider winning, Sergarr? This whole operation looks like it is very much vulnerable to mission creep.

The inability of Ukrainian military to conduct operations in Eastern Ukraine. Particularly ones that involve artillery bombardment of cities.

[Ukrainian Ranger]

So, you expect to destroy Ukrainian Army without aviation and ballistic missiles, right?

Meanwhile:
Brent Oil
77.57
-3.55
-4.38%

World economy is collapsing(c) Putin

[Sergarr]

So, you expect to destroy Ukrainian Army without aviation and ballistic missiles, right?

Meanwhile:
Brent Oil
77.57
-3.55
-4.38%

World economy is collapsing(c) Putin

Not all army, just armor.

After all, Poroshenko did said that after August offensive, the front line troops have had lost more that 50% of their armor.

And without armor, the offensive capability of Ukrainian army will go down the drain.

[Ukrainian Ranger]

Looks like you assume that Ukraine had something like 80% of combat ready armor in the combat zone and lost half of those, so now Ukraine has 60% of Armor it had before August. Not gonna argue here.

But do you really believe that Putin will be content with the current situation? That his goal is not capturing the whole south east of Ukraine but keeping hold on that few% of territory?

[Sergarr]

Looks like you assume that Ukraine had something like 80% of combat ready armor in the combat zone and lost half of those, so now Ukraine has 60% of Armor it had before August. Not gonna argue here.

But do you really believe that Putin will be content with the current situation? That his goal is not capturing the whole south east of Ukraine but keeping hold on that few% of territory?

I... don't remember saying that he will be content with the current situation.

Hell, I'm sure nobody is content with the current situation at all, that's why I called this ceasefire artificial.

And about the south-east... I don't really know. I hope it's the "capturing south-east of Ukraine", because any other way seems to be ultimately worse.

[Erkki]

What would you consider winning, Sergarr? This whole operation looks like it is very much vulnerable to mission creep.

The inability of Ukrainian military to conduct operations in Eastern Ukraine. Particularly ones that involve artillery bombardment of cities.

You mean, for all practical purposes, in Russia?

[Sergarr]

What would you consider winning, Sergarr? This whole operation looks like it is very much vulnerable to mission creep.

The inability of Ukrainian military to conduct operations in Eastern Ukraine. Particularly ones that involve artillery bombardment of cities.

You mean, for all practical purposes, in Russia?

No, I meant in Eastern Ukraine.

Ukrainian army doesn't have the ability to conduct military operations in Russia.

In Eastern Ukraine, the matters are different, because officially we are not there, so we have to work with insurgent troops. And as I've already said, these are pretty anarchic, so that seriously slows down our operational mobility. And operational mobility is key to surrounding enemy forces while avoiding being surrounded yourself. The insurgent troops are pretty good at the second part, but not good enough for the first one. Understandable, since many of them are basically local militia.

[Erkki]

Russia has absolutely no problem getting whatever it wants in Ukraine. The smoke cleared months ago and "officially not being there" is fooling absolutely no one. I remain personally more convinced than ever that the whole thing is still mostly about Russia's domestic politics and Putin's control clique's power in a deteriorating economical situation(at least).

However I'm not sure if even Russia itself knows what it wants from Ukraine right now. Whichever way things happen, the current situation is not sustainable. And not the least for Russia herself.

edit: then there is of course THIS

[Ukrainian Ranger]

I am waiting to see how soon Russian diplomacy will get to " You will buy oil for $120 or we will nuke you" level

[Baffler]

As soon as the USA agrees to unilaterally disarm its entire nuclear arsenal.

So never.