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[GreatJustice]

I'm pretty sure that the vote will return positive for independence, but the Spanish will ignore it and the Catalans aren't violent/well armed enough to raise the barricades and repeat 1936. This is arguably a good thing since the Catalonian local government is horrendously corrupt (even beyond that of the Spanish government, which is really saying something) and an independent Catalonia would probably immediately begin moving towards Communism of some sort. But then, that's the downside of supporting secession as a matter of principle, since the people actually seceding tend to have some sort of crazy idea that tars them in some way, like slavery for the Confederates or antisemitism (among other things) for regionalist Whites in the Russian Revolution. Regardless, I wish them the best, even if they celebrate their victory by raising the red flag and collectivizing the farms.

[Owlbread]

GreatJustice, I'll try to put this as gently as I can, but are you joking? Please tell me you're having a laugh and it went right over my head.

[smjjames]

I'm pretty sure that the vote will return positive for independence, but the Spanish will ignore it and the Catalans aren't violent/well armed enough to raise the barricades and repeat 1936. This is arguably a good thing since the Catalonian local government is horrendously corrupt (even beyond that of the Spanish government, which is really saying something) and an independent Catalonia would probably immediately begin moving towards Communism of some sort. But then, that's the downside of supporting secession as a matter of principle, since the people actually seceding tend to have some sort of crazy idea that tars them in some way, like slavery for the Confederates or antisemitism (among other things) for regionalist Whites in the Russian Revolution. Regardless, I wish them the best, even if they celebrate their victory by raising the red flag and collectivizing the farms.

Where the heck did you get the idea that they would go communist? Wanting to become independent has nothing to do with communism. Did South Sudans desire for independence have anything to do with communism? East Timor? Kosovo?..... Scotland? no.

[GreatJustice]

Supporting independence has nothing to do with Communism, but public opinion in Catalonia would bring them in that direction pretty fast. As things currently stand, Catalonia only really has two political forces: the CiU, a bunch of religious-right crooks that are fairly left wing in economic views and are most well known for getting rich by plundering government funds, and various left wing parties (the biggest being the ESC and PSC) that wouldn't mind a revival of the policies of 1937 Catalonia. In the short run, and independent Catalonia would be sprinting towards such a revival simply because there doesn't really exist any counteracting force. There would also be economic issues relating to the fact that most of Catalonia's trade is with the rest of Spain, which would be in trouble once they seceded and had tariffs put on their goods (they wouldn't get into the EU since Spain wouldn't let them in, so they wouldn't get the free trade that Scotland would have after seceding).

Regardless, in the long run it probably would be better if Catalonia seceded anyway, I just think that the current bunch of thugs running the show there aren't much of an improvement over the Spanish.

[Sheb]

So tens of thousands of protesters are currently marhcing in Brussels protesting the new right-wing government. Trade unions claims over 120.000, the police "Well over 100.000 according a preliminary count". Probably an understatement, as the national train operator claims it has sold over 80,000 "special tickets" for people coming from all over the country to join.

Also, something called "LuxLeaks" - a document leaks exposing Luxembourg's ultra-aggressive tax practices - is causing quite a lot of noise too.

[10ebbor10]

The more interesting thing will be the flemish/walloon ratio. If there is a serious discrepancy there, the end of Belgium might well be at hand. (http://m.nieuwsblad.be/cnt/DMF20141105_01360590)

All in all, a bloody nuissance that is unlikely to achieve anything.

[Darvi]

Also, something called "LuxLeaks" - a document leaks exposing Luxembourg's ultra-aggressive tax practices - is causing quite a lot of noise too.

No, I will not answer any questions about that, as I have no clue about anything myself. Hell, I don't even pay taxes.

[Helgoland]

As do many companies apparently...

Die Zeit reported today that Putin has for the first time in quite a while called the situation in Eastern Ukraine a 'civil war' and accused Ukraine of breaking the ceasefire. So I guess we're enteing round two. *ding*

[Sheb]

Yeah, the French/Flemish ratio will be interesting. The new governments represents 75% of Flemish voters, but only 25% of French-speaking voters, and the only French-speaking party in the government, the right-wing Mouvement Réformateur is widely loathed for "betraying French-speakers" by making a deal with the Flemish nationalist NVA, after spending the whole electoral campaign promising not to do so.

Honestly, I think Belgium is dead already. The NVA won. Now it's just a matter of waiting until the corpse grow cold.

[Sinistar]

About that protest in Brussels - is 120,000 (80,000?) a big number for protests in Belgium? Just interested because it sounds pretty big to me. Then again I have no clue what numbers do you guys and gals usually field whenever there's a new round of political bickering on the menu.

[Sheb]

Well, it's pretty big, (~1% of the country's population), but not unheard off.

[Arx]

And it's about eight and a half percent of the population of Brussels, which isn't small by general standards, although specific Belgian standards may be higher.

[10ebbor10]

It is not an unusual number. It is one of the bigger protests sure, but it's not spectacular. IIRC, last government had protests with up to 80 000 protesters, and that was a socialist government supported by, IIRC, only a few of the unions. This is the entire left wing of the country in action. And yes, even the general strikes happen quite often.

And sadly, as so often seems to be the case these days, protests turned into riots. Quite honestly, if the Unions don't manage to contain this, and the sporadic strikes and all that, they're going to run out of public goodwill quite soon.

http://www.hln.be/hln/nl/9096/Belgie/photoalbum/detail/2113567/1456856/0/Nationale-betoging-loopt-helemaal-uit-de-hand.dhtml

[Owlbread]

Honestly, I think Belgium is dead already. The NVA won. Now it's just a matter of waiting until the corpse grow cold.

I still hope foolishly that the Walloons will rediscover their national identity and form a separate state.

[10ebbor10]

Heh, it almost happened in the sixties.